The eleventh week of the NFL season kicks with an intriguing Thursday Night Football matchup between the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons. After slow starts to the 2021 campaign, the two teams have combined to win eight of their 11 total games played over the last five weeks. The Patriots in particular ride a major momentum wave into Thursday’s game having won four straight. They’ll aim to continue their streak while the Falcons hope to rebound at home after an ugly loss last week. NFL betting odds list the visitors as a full touchdown favorite ahead of this Patriots vs Falcons showdown.
The following Patriots vs Falcons NFL betting preview will give you the current odds, betting trends and picks for the Week 11 TNF matchup, along with a stream link to watch games all season long.
Patriots vs Falcons TNF Week 11 NFL Betting Preview
NFL Regular Season — Week 11 Thursday Night Football
New England Patriots (6-4, 4-0 Away) vs. Atlanta Falcons (4-5, 1-3 Home)
Date: Thursday, Nov. 18, 2021
Time: 8:20 p.m. EST
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium — Atlanta, GA
Coverage: Click here for the stream
New England Patriots Preview
At this point, there is a real argument to be made that the Patriots are playing the best football of any team in the NFL. Winners of four straight and five of the last six, New England enters this TNF NFL betting contest red-hot. Last week saw Bill Belichick’s bunch thoroughly dominate a fellow AFC playoff hopeful in the Cleveland Browns. For the second straight week, the Patriots’ defense held their opponent to single-digits on the scoreboard. Safety Kyle Dugger continued the Pats’ incredible start to the season in the turnover department with an interception. As a team, the Patriots are tied for second in the NFL with 14 INTs this season. New England held wound up holding the Browns to just 217 total yards and surged into the top-five in adjusted defensive efficiency following the performance.
Along with the exceptional defensive play, we saw an additional side of the Patriots’ offense last Sunday that had been more or less kept under wraps. In a promising matchup against a porous Browns secondary, rookie QB Mac Jones took full advantage. He threw three touchdown passes in what was probably his best game as a pro thus far. Tight end Hunter Henry caught two scoring strikes and continues to be a prime target down in the red zone. Wideout Jakobi Meyers finally caught his first NFL touchdown as in the win as well. With lead running back Damien Harris inactive due to a concussion, another rookie stepped up in his absence. Rhamondre Stevenson rumbled for 100 yards rushing and a pair of scores as the New England ground game continued its recent roll.
Atlanta Falcons Preview
After pulling off a surprising NFL betting upset two weeks ago against an NFC South Divisional opponent, the Falcons were largely lifeless in a lopsided loss last Sunday. Atlanta was on the wrong end of a 43-3 beatdown courtesy of the Dallas Cowboys. Despite star receiver Calvin Ridley stepping away from the game for personal reasons, Matt Ryan had been cobbling together some solid offensive performances. That was not the case against former Falcons head coach and current Cowboys defensive coordinator, Dan Quinn. Ryan went just 9-21 for 117 yards and threw two picks in the loss. With hybrid skill player Cordarrelle Patterson suffering an ankle injury, the Falcons figure to be up against it offensively again on Thursday night.
On the bright side, Patterson was able to practice in a limited capacity on both Monday and Tuesday. Atlanta desperately needs the man who has been their most productive player all season in Thursday’s NFL betting matchup. Trying to break down the Patriots’ defense is difficult enough as it is. If Ryan is forced to do so without any reliable weapons, things could get ugly in a hurry. Rookie tight end Kyle Pitts led all Falcons pass-catcher with 60 yards receiving in the loss to Dallas. Although he is the most talented asset on the field for Atlanta, Pitts does not yet have the experience to beat NFL defenses that can key in on him. Speaking of defense, the Falcons haven’t played a whole lot of it this season. Atlanta enters this TNF battle ranked 31st in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Patriots vs Falcons Odds and Spread
NFL betting odds for Patriots vs Falcons are taken from BetMGM Sportsbook.
Moneyline: NE: (-250) | ATL: (+210)
Spread: NE: -6.5 (-110) | ATL: +6.5 (-110)
Total: 47.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
Public (Spread) Betting via Action Network: NE: (79%) | ATL: (21%)
Patriots vs Falcons NFL Betting Trends
- Patriots are 4-1 both straight up and ATS in their last five games.
- Five of the Patriots’ last six games have gone over the total.
- Falcons are just 1-5 straight up in their last six home games.
- The total has gone over in four of the Falcons’ last six games.
- The Patriots are 6-0 both straight up and ATS in their last six matchups against the Falcons.
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Patriots vs Falcons Stats
- New England is averaging 27.5 points per game (PPG) this season (No. 6 in the NFL).
- New England is surrendering 17.7 PPG this season (No. 2 in the NFL).
- Atlanta is averaging 19.8 PPG this season (No. 25 in the NFL).
- Atlanta is surrendering 29.2 PPG this season (No. 31 in the NFL).
Patriots vs Falcons Prediction
This Patriots vs Falcons NFL betting prediction uses NumberFire’s game projections. They give New England a 77.1% chance to win this Week 11 TNF matchup.
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