2020 NFC Championship Game
Green Bay Packers (13-3, 7-1 Away) vs. San Francisco 49ers (13-3, 6-2 Home)
Date: Sunday, Jan. 19, 2020
Time: 6:40 p.m. EST
Venue: Levi’s Stadium – Santa Clara, CA
Coverage: FOX
Packers vs 49ers Spread and Odds
Moneyline: GB: (+250) | SF: (-320)
Spread: GB: +7.5 (-105) | SF: -7.5 (-115)
Total: 46 – Over: (-115) | Under: (-105)
Public (Spread) Betting Percentages via oddsFire: GB: 56% | SF: 44%
The NFC Championship. The final trial for the final two teams in the conference, with only one deserving of the honor to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. This year, we are lucky enough to see two of the most historic franchises in the league go head-to-head with a trip to Miami on the line.
In one corner, we have the new kids on the block, the San Francisco 49ers, who hadn’t played in a playoff game in five years before easily washing the outmatched Vikings. In the other corner we have the Green Bay Packers, back for their fourth conference championship since 2010 and their fifth since 2007.
Of course, it isn’t so simple as experience versus youth. Green Bay has itself an impressive new coach in Matt LaFleur, who has brought the team back to where they belong after Mike McCarthy failed to make the playoffs altogether in his final two seasons. Meanwhile, San Francisco has some of the best veteran leadership you could ask for in the playoffs, coming from a guy named Richard Sherman. When I analyzed the Packers and 49ers last week, I took a look at their strengths and weaknesses, so I won’t get redundant and follow the same style as last week. This time, like I just did with Titans-Chiefs, I’ll give my two cents on three major ways that both the Packers and Niners can gain the advantage in this game and come out on top in the end.
Currently, the 49ers are the 7.5-point home favorites, according to MyBookie Sportsbook.
How the Packers Can Win
1) Give Davante Adams a chance
You don’t want any part of Richard Sherman right now. The 35.2 passer rating he has allowed over his past 13 games is astounding, and it’s causing quarterbacks to simply choose to ignore his side of the field. Luckily for the Packers, Sherman doesn’t tend to stray from his side. If the Packers do their best to keep their one meaningful receiving weapon away from Sherman’s island, the receiver is talented enough and important enough to garner nonstop targets. It limits your options as a play caller with Adams staying on one side of the field, but the Packers simply don’t have anybody else to scare secondaries. If the Packers are going to move the ball through the air, Adams needs to dominate. Let Sherman shut down Geronimo Allison or someone else.
2) Play close to the line of scrimmage
For tight ends (and wide receivers) with similar numbers of targets and receptions, George Kittle’s average depth of target (aDOT) of 6.3 yards was substantially lower than absolutely everybody else in the realm of 85 receptions or so. Kittle is the team’s most dangerous receiving weapon, but he isn’t a deep threat, which is something that the 49ers somewhat lack. Emmanuel Sanders fits the bill, but the bottom line is that the Niners only had eight plays of 40+ yards on the season, which is definitely on the weaker side. If the Packers can cheat in against the Niners’ devastating run game and defend Kittle well on short passes, they’ll be well on their way to stopping what makes San Fran so dangerous.
3) Get Aaron Jones more involved in the passing game
Either him or Jamaal Williams, but it’s better if it’s Jones because he’ll keep the defense on their toes so they’ll need to be equally prepared for a run or a pass. Jones was second on the team in receptions, and he’ll be critical in bailing Rodgers out when the San Francisco pressure gets too much to bear. Jones only had one reception against Seattle, but the 49ers pass rush is a whole different animal than the Seahawks, and it’s something the Packers will need to know how to combat. Whether it be designed screens or check downs underneath as the pocket collapses, getting the ball in Jones’ hands will be extremely important, especially if running the ball is as difficult as it was for Dalvin Cook last week.
How the 49ers Can Win
1) Wear the Packers down
The 49ers have three quality running backs at their disposal. They used these backs to bully the Vikings into submission last week with run after run after run, whether it was Tevin Coleman, Raheem Mostert or Matt Breida. This culminated in an eight-play, 56-yard touchdown drive made up entirely of runs, that crushed the Vikings last hopes and demoralized an exhausted defense. And this was against a Vikings team with a seriously tough run defense! The Packers don’t have such an asset, unfortunately, as they allowed 4.7 yards per carry in the regular season. This Niners rushing attack is multi-faceted and difficult to stay fresh enough to defend, and even if the Packers start to cheat in and make stopping the run their focus, the talent along the 49ers’ offensive line is going to be overwhelming. Now completely healthy, this line is back to being one of the top units in the league, so the Packers are in for a tough challenge.
2) Don’t lose the turnover battle
Jimmy Garoppolo has done an excellent job as the 49ers quarterback, but in a matchup against the great Aaron Rodgers, the quarterback famous for absolutely never throwing interceptions, Garoppolo is must be extra careful. He has numerous playmaking weapons in Deebo Samuel and Sanders, on top of Kittle, but all of them will see difficult defensive assignments. Kevin King (five INT) and Jaire Alexander (two INT, team-leading 17 passes defensed) are both dangerous corners and will make Jimmy Garoppolo’s decision making one of the most important factors in this game, especially with Za’Darius and Preston Smith bearing down on him. Garoppolo’s 13 interceptions this season are worrisome, and if he isn’t careful he could let this game get away from him and give the Packers short fields for easy scores. You don’t want to give Rodgers any extra help.
3) Don’t get burned
If Davante Adams can successfully avoid Richard Sherman for the majority of this game, he’s going to get plenty of looks and he’ll catch a number of balls. These are just the facts; it’s really the one card Aaron Rodgers has with the weapons surrounding him. If the Niners can just somewhat limit the damage Adams does, while forcing Rodgers to look elsewhere a good chunk of the time, this will be a win for the 49ers, because if Rodgers doesn’t always have Adams open like he did against Seattle, he’s will begin to fall victim to the Niners’ swarming pass rush and the Packers will have to start punting or settling for field goals a bit more often than they would expect.
Predictions
Unless the Packers have a trick or two up their sleeve, they just aren’t built to defeat the 49ers in their own stadium. The wild card of this game is Jimmy Garoppolo, because if he gives the ball up once or twice, the 49ers lose their advantage. If the Packers can find just one other receiving option that can make plays, this is an entirely different ballgame. Can it be Allen Lazard? Can Jimmy Graham turn back the clock? I have doubts.
Overall, the 49ers defense is probably the best in the league, with some incredible talent on the offensive side of the ball, and they are able to move past a flawed Packers team and onto Miami.
Final Score: 49ers 24, Packers 20
I would, however, take the Packers +7.5. Many are smelling a blowout after the 49ers beat them 37-8 earlier in the season, but as talented as this 49ers team is, the difference in talent isn’t that wide. I can easily see a Garoppolo interception or another mental mistake from a team that is still new to the playoffs, changing this game. And you don’t give Rodgers that level of disrespect. He’ll keep the Packers in this game.
Don’t agree? Feel free to fight me on Twitter. Agree? I love praise as much as the next guy, so let me know that too.
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