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North Texas vs UTSA Prediction, Odds and College Football Betting Picks for Conference USA Championship Game

The UTSA Roadrunners will look to capture their second consecutive Conference USA Championship on Friday night when they host the North Texas Mean Green. These two teams played to a four-point decision in a thrilling matchup during the regular season. North Texas won three of four after that loss to secure the rematch. While UNT looks to play spoiler, UTSA will try to complete a perfect season in league play. The college football betting picks favor the Roadrunners by more than a touchdown with their North Texas vs UTSA prediction.

The following game preview provides the college football betting odds, trends and FEI Index ratings before sharing our official North Texas vs UTSA prediction for the Conference USA Championship Game.

North Texas vs UTSA Prediction | College Football Betting Picks

2022 Conference USA Championship Game
North Texas Mean Green (7-5, 6-2 CUSA) vs. UTSA Roadrunners (10-2, 8-0 CUSA)
Date: Friday, December 2, 2022
Time: 7:30 PM EST
Venue: Alamodome — San Antonio, TX
Coverage: CBSSN

With 28-year-old Austin Aune returning at quarterback, expectations were high for the North Texas offense coming into the season. The Mean Green went on to average 32.3 points per game during the regular season. However, the North Texas defense also stepped up late in the year. Of particular note was a 40-13 win over Western Kentucky, a result that ultimately has UNT in the Conference USA Championship Game. The Mean Green held three of their final four opponents to 17 points or less.

Although UTSA was expected to be among the best in Conference USA again this season, few could’ve predicted that the Roadrunners would put together an unbeaten league record during the regular season. If not for an overtime loss to Houston early in the year, UTSA would likely be in the driver’s seat with regard to earning a New Year’s Six bowl invite. With senior quarterback Frank Harris at the controls, the Roadrunners’ offense has been one of the best in the country all season long.

Frank Harris North Texas vs UTSA prediction college football betting odds picks Conference USA Championship
Credit: Jeff Huehn/UTSA Athletics

North Texas vs UTSA College Football Betting Picks and Odds

All college football betting odds for North Texas vs UTSA can be found at Bovada Sportsbook.

Moneyline: UNT: (+265) | UTSA: (-330)
Point Spread: UNT: +8.5 (-110) | UTSA: -8.5 (-110)
Total: 68.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

College Football FEI Ratings

The following table shares the Fremeau Efficiency Index rankings for both teams involved in this Conference USA Championship Game matchup. The purpose of the FEI ratings is to represent the per-possession scoring advantage that a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. The rankings for offense and defense are out of 131 total FBS-level teams.

Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) ratings are froFootball Outsiders

TeamOverall FEI (Rk)OFEI (Rk)DFEI (Rk)
North Texas-.25 (85).10 (59)-.62 (110)
UTSA.14 (56).68 (29)-.31 (83)
  • Mean Green are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.
  • Seven of the Mean Green’s last ten games have gone OVER the total.
  • Mean Green are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games.
  • Roadrunners are 9-0 straight up in their last nine games overall.
  • Five of the Roadrunners’ last seven games have stayed UNDER the total.
  • Roadrunners are 4-1 ATS in their last five head-to-head matchups against the Mean Green at home.
  • Seven of the last eight head-to-head meetings between the Mean Green and the Roadrunners have gone UNDER the total.

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North Texas vs UTSA Prediction | College Football Betting Picks

UTSA may have put together a perfect regular season in Conference USA, but the Roadrunners had to escape their fair share of close calls in doing so. Wins over Western Kentucky, North Texas, UAB and UTEP came by three, four, six and three points, respectively. As such, it’s fair to question just how large the gap between UTSA and the other formidable programs in the conference truly is.

Through the first three quarters of the regular season meeting, North Texas and UTSA combined for only 23 points. All hell broke loose in the fourth as the two sides combined for 35 points in the closing 15 minutes. Both offenses are vastly superior to the opposing defenses statistically and shouldn’t take nearly as long to get rolling on Friday night.

The North Texas vs UTSA odds are clearly wise to the fact that offense is the strength of both teams and have set a lofty game total for the Conference USA Championship. While UTSA’s defense has shut down lesser opponents, it has struggled to contain quality competition. In fact, of the seven bowl-eligible teams that the Roadrunners faced during the regular season, the Mean Green finished with the worst scoring output at 27 points.

OVER THE TOTAL will be our official college football betting North Texas vs UTSA prediction for the Conference USA Championship Game.

For what it’s worth, the ESPN Matchup Predictor gives UTSA a 74.3% chance to win this game outright.

Bet: Over 68.5 (-110 at Bovada Sportsbook)

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