In one of the more quiet moves this offseason, the Cleveland Browns have inked Nick Chubb to a new extension. There is little doubt that Chubb is among the elite running backs in the NFL. With injuries and Kareem Hunt lurking in the background however, is he worth buying or selling in fantasy football? Let’s discuss the Nick Chubb fantasy football outlook for 2021, including his stats from 2020 and giving our buy or sell decision based on his current average draft position (ADP).
Nick Chubb Fantasy Football Outlook 2021
2020 Fantasy Stats
Games Played: 12
Fantasy Points (PPR): 243.5
Fantasy Rank: RB9
Boom%: 16.7%
Starter%: 83.3%
Bust%: 16.7%
Nick Chubb 2021 Outlook
Although the Browns also have Hunt, there is little doubt who the lead back is in the backfield. If the fact that he averaged just shy of 17 carries per game when fully healthy doesn’t sell it for you, his recent extension netting him $30 million guaranteed should. There is nothing different for him or his role, and he should be ready to explode in 2021.
Chubb did miss a few games due to a MCL sprain, but he didn’t miss a beat when he returned. There will be some cause for concern among Nick Chubb fantasy owners, as it’s the same knee in which he tore the PCL, MCL, LCL and dislocated his knee, which caused cartilage damage in college in 2015. Overall though, all running backs have injury history and risk. The fact he’s been so durable up to this point shouldn’t be forgotten.
When it comes to consistency, Chubb ranks among the best in the league. In 12 games, he only finished with single-digit fantasy points twice. One of those instances occurred against Dallas, when he got hurt mid-game. His ability to finish seventh in the NFL in rushing yards on an average of around 50 less total carries shows just how productive he is when he’s on the field. And even being seventh in rushing yards is misleading. The difference between him and third was just 102 yards. It’s pretty impressive for a man who missed a quarter of the season.
When it comes to strength of schedule, it looks to be all systems go for Chubb this season. The Browns have the fourth-easiest schedule when it comes to opposing fantasy RBs. This poses a big issue for anyone who has to matchup against him in fantasy, no matter the week. While Hunt will get work in the passing game, there is no doubt that Chubb can be one of the elite options among running backs, especially with a weak schedule.
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Nick Chubb Fantasy Football ADP | Buy or Sell?
The ADP of Nick Chubb was taken from Fantasy Football Calculator on July 31st and has Chubb taken seventh overall, and seventh among running backs as well. Bold prediction: Nick Chubb will be RB1 after this season. As a result, Chubb is a no-brainer buy candidate at this position. Not only is he running behind one of the best offensive lines in football, he also has one of the easiest schedules among elite backs.
If Nick Chubb had been able to stay on the field more last season, he would have been RB4 by a mile. Add in a dangerous workload and aging body on Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook’s fumbling issues and the Saints still not knowing who their quarterback is, and I think we’ll see Chubb take the role of top dog. The top three guys will surely see regression, while the only direction for Chubb is up. When he wins you your league, feel free to donate to First Candle, a charity Nick Chubb works with.
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