If you are unaware of what NFL survivor picks are, the basic concept is you make NFL picks throughout the season, but you can only pick a team once. Once you lose, you’re knocked out, so choose your Week 4 NFL Survivor Pool picks wisely.
If you are new to reading my survivor articles, what I do is outline my “lock of the week,” my “value of the week” and my “high-risk, high-reward pick of the week.”
The lock of the week details what team I think has the best chance of winning their matchup. This would most likely be a good team that plays a bad team. The lock is also the official pick for NFL Survivor Pools, meaning we will not reuse a “lock.” My value pick of the week details a mid-tier team that has a good matchup. And finally, my high-risk, high-reward pick details a bad team that has a good matchup. It may be worth it to look at the NFL betting odds for these games and place some bets as well.
Week 4 NFL Survivor Pool Picks
Lock of the Week | Best Pick for NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 4
San Francisco 49ers vs. New England Patriots
With how crazy and unpredictable the NFL has been to start the season, I am sure that if you are still alive in your NFL survivor pool, then you are one of a few. If that is the case, I think the move this week is to play it as safe as possible and take one of the big dogs in the NFL. This week, that is the San Francisco 49ers.
I like the 49ers in this spot for a number of reasons, but I think that the top reason is their upcoming schedule. Over the next eight games, San Francisco takes on New England, Arizona, Dallas, Tampa Bay, Seattle, Green Bay, Buffalo and Chicago. That is a brutal schedule and, outside of New England, how many of those games are guaranteed wins? I would argue zero. That’s why I think you need to take the 49ers now. Given that you are still alive, you don’t want to leave a big dog on the board and with the Patriots this week, this might be the last time to take the 49ers until December.
As for the game, even without three of their biggest playmakers on offense, the 49ers played somewhat of a good game against the Rams. Even with the Rams’ injuries, I think that their offense is better than New England’s. Brock Purdy shows that he doesn’t need superstar talent around him to perform, so if either George Kittle or Deebo Samuel plays in this game, that is just extra for Purdy. San Francisco’s defense should have no problem in this game either. As we saw against the Jets, just a little bit of pressure can make Jacoby Brissett uncomfortable and underperform. Why can’t Nick Bosa and company follow the same game plan that the Jets did?
Lock of the Week: San Francisco 49ers
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Value Pick of the Week | Week 4 NFL Survivor Pool Picks
New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos
If the San Francisco 49ers weren’t in such a desirable spot this week, then I would have gone with the Jets as my lock of the week. Last week against the Patriots, we saw some of what makes Aaron Rodgers such an amazing quarterback. He was making quick reads, he was delivering accurate passes and, most encouragingly, he was moving well in and outside of the pocket. The Jets come in as seven-point favorites and you know that Nathaniel Hackett wants revenge after being dragged by Sean Payton and the Broncos.
What was most encouraging about the Jets though was their defense looked similar to what we saw out of them last year. They made life hell for Jacoby Brissett and handled Rhamondre Stevenson. With a much worse running attack and a much less experienced quarterback, I am expecting a similar performance. Bo Nix still has not thrown a touchdown pass and staring down Sauce Gardner and company, that may be the case entering Week 5.
Value Pick of the Week: New York Jets
High Risk, High Reward Pick of the Week | Week 4 NFL Survivor Pool Picks
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Indianapolis Colts
It feels kind of strange to pick an undefeated team as my high-risk pick, but I am not sure that we can be 100% confident that Pittsburgh is a big dog in the NFL yet. This week, they come in as two-point favorites against an Indianapolis Colts team that looks bad. It starts with what the defense is going to do to Anthony Richardson. Richardson flat-out cannot read an NFL defense and will continue to turn the ball over at will. Against an opportunistic defense like the Steelers, I can see something similar to that of what Green Bay’s defense did to Richardson. Add to the fact that there is an obvious hesitation to let Richardson run the ball. If Pittsburgh can bottle up Jonathan Taylor, then Richardson and the Colts offense can be in for a long week.
The Colts have also struggled to stop the run in any sort of capacity this season. Say what you want about Arthur Smith as a head coach, but one thing is certain, he is a run game guru. I believe that Smith will come up with a great run scheme to work Najee Harris into a great week. Partnering with one of the best running quarterbacks in the NFL with Justin Fields, and I think we see a 4-0 Pittsburgh Steelers team when the week is over.
High Risk, High Reward Pick of the Week: Pittsburgh Steelers
