If you are unaware of what NFL survivor picks are, the basic concept is you make NFL picks throughout the season, but you can only pick a team once. Once you lose, you’re knocked out, so choose your Week 1 NFL Survivor Pool picks wisely.
If you are new to reading my survivor articles, what I do is outline my “lock of the week,” my “value of the week” and my “high-risk, high-reward pick of the week.”
The lock of the week details what team I think has the best chance of winning their matchup. This would most likely be a good team that plays a bad team. The lock is also the official pick for NFL Survivor Pools, meaning we will not reuse a “lock.” My value pick of the week details a mid-tier team that has a good matchup. And finally, my high-risk, high-reward pick details a bad team that has a good matchup. It may be worth it to look at the NFL betting odds for these games and place some bets as well.
Week 1 Survivor Pool Picks
Lock of the Week | Best Pick for NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 1
Cincinnati Bengals vs. New England Patriots
The Cincinnati Bengals open Week 1 favored by 8.5 points over the New England Patriots. The Patriots are still in the midst of a rebuild in the post-Bill Belichick era. While going with Jacoby Brissett is probably the smart move regarding the future of the Patriots, I am not so sure that moves the needle for the Patriots to pull off an upset here. On the other side of the ball, the Patriots’ defense while not horrible, I don’t think is anything to fear. Matt Judon left in the offseason and, if they cannot get a pass rush, a healthy Joe Burrow will rip that defense to shreds.
The last two opening games have been tumultuous for Joe Burrow, as turnovers and inconsistent play have hurt the team. Those two opening games came after two bad offseasons for Burrow and the Bengals. This past season, Burrow was able to heal and looked good in both training camp and the preseason. Even with Ja’Marr Chase‘s status up in the air at this point, the combination of Tee Higgins, Chase Brown and Zack Moss, while not great, should be enough to take down a bad Patriots team. With Brissett at quarterback and not many playmakers on the offensive side of the ball, I am not scared of the Patriots putting up too many points.
Lock of the Week: Cincinnati Bengals
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Value Pick of the Week | Week 1 NFL Survivor Pool Picks
New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers
I really debated taking the New Orleans Saints as my lock of the week, but I like the Bengals a little bit better. This pick, like the Bengals over the Patriots, just screams don’t overthink it to me. The Saints are the better team here and should beat the Panthers. The Panthers do not have anyone who scares me to disrupt Derek Carr’s passing. If Carr can get an extra second or two to pass, I can see big games coming from both Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. Not to mention that Alvin Kamara is still one of the best receiving backs in the NFL. Mentioning Kamara, I am not scared of Carolina’s ability to stop the run, so if Kamara gets a bunch of carries early, I don’t know what adjustments Carolina will be able to make to lock in on defense.
As for the Panthers’ offense, what is there that will scare you off of this pick? Sure, Diontae Johnson is not a bad player, but Chuba Hubbard will probably start this game at running back. While Hubbard has had very limited moments of success, I am not counting on him to be the guy to win the Panthers this game. I do think that Bryce Young is better than a lot of people think, but similar to the Patriots, who is going to be the guy to help him out? Like I said before, the Saints are the better team here and should win this game fairly easily.
Value Pick of the Week: New Orleans Saints
High Risk, High Reward Pick of the Week | Week 1 NFL Survivor Pool Picks
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders
This is probably not a high risk, high reward pick, because I do not think that the Chargers are a horrible team. The problem is, outside of the Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Giants, where do you go with this? I don’t think I want to touch that game, because the Giants could very well win, but the Vikings are favored and I am not a huge fan of going against odds makers in Week 1. As for this game, it is three-for-three for me on don’t overthink it games. The Chargers are clearly better than the Raiders. This is also a great opportunity to get the Chargers out of the way if you do not believe in them this year.
On paper, the Chargers do not look like they got any better, as they are going through somewhat of a mini-rebuild. Still, I think they can still move the ball decently. That all starts with Jim Harbaugh’s run game. Poaching two running backs from his brother in Baltimore is smart, so he can use somewhat of a committee approach. Like the Panthers, I do not think that there is much on this Raiders team that can consistently stop the run. Talent at receiver aside, if the Chargers can get any extra time for Justin Herbert to throw the ball, he will find open guys.
As for the Raiders’ offense, I am not so sure that Davante Adams having a big game will greatly affect the Chargers. Adams is probably the only real threat on this Raiders offense, so letting him do his thing and making sure no one else beats you is probably the way to go. I think that Derwin James can cheat in the box this game to help neutralize a poor rushing attack. The Raiders did nothing to help this offensive line in the offseason and it is a revenge game for Khalil Mack. We have seen it before, and I think that this is an opportunity for Mack to record a game with more than two sacks.
High Risk, High Reward Pick of the Week: Los Angeles Chargers
