The best NFL player props to bet on for Week 7 include the longest reception for Detroit Lions’ receiver Jameson Williams.
It’s been a while, but I think it’s time we get back into giving you money-making NFL picks! We are nearly into the NFL season, and you may think we are left with more questions than answers. Well, you’re right, but we do have enough clarity to make money betting on these football games.
Many of the new readers know me as a fantasy football analyst. However, in a past life, I finished No. 2 overall in the inaugural BettingPros NFL betting accuracy competition, where I got blocked by Colin Cowherd for talking shit after finishing above him every week (worth it). I also continue to crush preseason NFL futures betting at a lifetime hit rate of over 86% (hopefully you tailed me this year). But today, we are dipping our toes into the best NFL prop bets to place for Week 7. We will focus specifically on NFL player props that I am liking the “over” on!
All of my betting lines below were found on DraftKings Sportsbook. If you somehow don’t have an account there, sign up through this link to get $300 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins! Go ahead and bet on Mike Vrabel and the New England Patriots to defeat the Tennessee Titans to reap those rewards.
Best NFL Player Props For Week 7 | NFL Free Picks
Mason Taylor OVER 40.5 Receiving Yards
The rookie tight end has his receiving total for Week 7 discounted, thanks to one of the worst passing performances of all time from Justin Fields in London. But prior to the disaster from Justin Fields last week, the rookie was getting more involved in this offense. Taylor received 25 targets from Week 3-5 (with back-to-back games of 65+ yards in Weeks 4 and 5), and it looks like he will be back to that this week.
The New York Jets will be without their top wide receiver, Garrett Wilson. It’s not an exaggeration to say Mason Taylor is now a top-two target on the Jets, with the other player being Breece Hall. He will go up against a Carolina Panthers defense that has surrendered the second-most receiving yards per game to the tight end position, at 74. A big reason for this is that Carolina has the worst pass rush in the NFL, totaling just five sacks this year. Taylor will not need to block or chip for the offensive tackle before releasing on routes, leading to plenty of targets in this game.
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Courtland Sutton OVER 56.5 Rec Yards
Courtland Sutton was on the other side of that disaster of an international game last week. As a result, his receiving yards are a bit discounted from what I believe they actually should be. We are taking him to record at least 57 receiving yards, which is something he has accomplished in four weeks already this season, including three straight prior to the game with the Jets.
While the New York Giants have a front seven that is solid, their secondary is suspect. So, if a team can neutralize the pass rush, then receivers should be able to attack downfield. Luckily for Denver, they have one of the best offensive lines in the league. The Broncos have allowed just six sacks this year, which is the second-fewest in the NFL. Bo Nix has been pressured on just over 25% of his dropbacks, which is the best rate among any starting quarterback. So, Nix should have time to throw the ball, and as such, Sutton should have time to get open all day long.
Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime TD
I understand that some of you TreVeyon Henderson fantasy owners hate Rhamondre Stevenson. However, he is a solid running back who has a great matchup against a bad Tennessee Titans team. No team in the NFL has surrendered more touchdowns on the ground to opposing RBs this season, with the Titans giving up nine through six games. Going up against Mike Vrabel and the New England Patriots, the Titans are 6.5-point underdogs, allowing New England to lean on the run and move the ball.
There is no doubt that there is risk involved with Stevenson, as he has found the end zone in just one game this season. However, that is why we get these odds, since the matchup leans so heavily in favor of the RB falling in the end zone at least once. The lack of touchdowns for Stevenson does come from the lack of short-yardage touchdowns available. Drake Maye has been passing all over everyone, but the Titans are making it a point not to give up the big play, surrendering no pass over 43 yards this season (fourth-shortest in the category). And when the Patriots get the ball close to the goal-line, Rhamondre Stevenson is taking those carries.
Over a tenth of Stevenson’s carries this season have come within the five-yard line (per my Opportunity Index), so look for him to get a couple of those opportunities in Week 7, giving us our only touchdown bet amongst these NFL player props.
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Quinshon Judkins OVER 95.5 Rushing Yards
Any running back against the Miami Dolphins is interesting, but rookie RB Quinshon Judkins is especially so. No team has been embarrassed on the ground more than the Dolphins this season, allowing the most rushing yards per game to running backs (134.3). Given that Judkins has totaled 70.5% and 79.3% of the Cleveland Browns’ RB carries over the past two games, nearly all of this rushing production that the Dolphins are giving up should go to him.
Over the past two weeks, the Dolphins have allowed 124 rushing yards to Kimani Vidal and 206 to Rico Dowdle. No offense to those two, but Quinshon Judkins is a better runner than both. This game is expected to be a close one, with the Browns being 2.5-point favorites, meaning they should be able to stick to running the football, taking the pressure off of Dillon Gabriel. In the three games Judkins has 18+ carries this season, he is averaging 95.3 rushing yards. Against a terrible defense, look for him to hit the century mark.
Jameson Williams Longest Rec OVER 21.5 Yards
The last of this week’s NFL player props is worth waiting for, since it will be a fun one to cash. We are betting on Jameson Williams to record a catch of over 21.5 receiving yards on Monday Night Football, and there are several reasons why.
If you haven’t noticed Jameson Williams’ home/road split for his career, let me give you this incredible money-making trend for Williams and the Lions’ passing game. For his career, Williams has averaged 51.8 receiving yards at home versus 35.9 on the road. This split has been even more apparent this season, with the Detroit WR averaging 74 receiving yards at Ford Field and 35.3 everywhere else. Per my Opportunity Index, Jameson Williams has an average depth of target (aDOT) of 15.9 yards, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have allowed a whopping 20 passes of over 20 yards.
Williams’ two games with the highest aDOT this season have been his two home games as well, with performances of 33.5 and 26.9. Regardless, Jameson Williams has caught a pass of at least 22 yards in four of his past five games, and I love that trend to continue in Week 7. Of all the Week 7 NFL player props we’ve talked about, I feel the most confident about this one. I love Williams as a play this week, so hammer this bet!
If you are an absolute sicko, like me, and want to create a full parlay of the NFL free picks, it is a juicy bet. This five-pick parlay features +2457 odds, meaning a $5 bet would win over $127! If you hit big, don’t forget your boy! Buy me a coffee here so I can stay up late hunting more NFL betting picks for next week!
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