Three weeks of the NFL betting season are in the books, and underdogs continue to be one of the hottest things under the sun. An 8-6 ATS effort in Week 3 marked the third consecutive winning week for teams catching points to begin the season. Underdogs are now 30-18 ATS overall, equating to a 64% success rate. In addition, short road dogs of six points or fewer have been particularly successful, going 14-3 ATS thus far. More upsets are undoubtedly on the horizon in Week 4, but which dogs are the best ones to back when making your NFL betting picks?
The following looks at three NFL betting favorites who are officially on upset alert ahead of their Week 4 matchups including the Tennessee Titans, Chicago Bears and Los Angeles Chargers.
**Author’s Note: The Cleveland Browns and Washington Football Team are two other favorites that are officially on upset alert in Week 4. However, with those games having point spreads close to pick’em, they are not featured in this column.
3 Teams on Upset Alert for Week 4 | NFL Betting Picks
Titans (-7) vs Jets
We’re definitely kicking off this week’s upset NFL betting picks with a bang. After picking up a crucial win over the AFC South rival Indianapolis Colts last week, the Tennessee Titans are laying a full touchdown ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the New York Jets. The Titans forgot to show up for their season-opener against the Arizona Cardinals. But ever since halftime in Week 2, Tennessee has looked much more like the playoff contender most expected them to be coming into the year. Derrick Henry rumbled for another 100-yard game last week, and Ryan Tannehill made up for a pair of interceptions by throwing three touchdown passes. The Titans’ defense was also quite impressive.
On the other side of the spectrum, the Jets have admittedly done nothing through three weeks to suggest that they are capable of pulling off this upset. Or have they?? Well, New York’s defense actually hasn’t been all that bad. Head coach Robert Saleh is a defensive guy, and the unit certainly has playmakers, particularly in the front seven. For as bad as the Jets were a season ago, they were a top-10 adjusted defense against the run. The metrics suggest they are again strong in this area this season. While the secondary is young and lacks a ton of surefire talent outside of safety Marcus Maye, they might actually get a bit of reprieve this week. Reports suggest that there’s a real chance the Titans will be without both of their star wide receivers, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones, due to injuries in Week 4.
Titans vs Jets NFL Betting Picks
The over/under on this Titans vs Jets NFL betting matchup has crashed down from opening and rightfully so. The Jets’ offensive line is a disaster, and rookie QB Zach Wilson has been a turnover machine through three games. That being said, the Titans defense he will face on Sunday is almost certainly the weakest he has seen thus far. They’ll have to ride the defense for sure, but New York always shows up for a fight when playing at home. If both Jones and Brown are indeed ruled out, the Jets might just have some legitimate bite as nearly 3-1 outright underdogs.
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Lions vs Bears (-3)
The Bears are back on upset alert as short home favorites in Week 4. The betting market has already driven the spread down from an opening number of six to see Chicago currently laying just a field goal against the rival Detroit Lions. How anyone can begin to lay any amount of points with Matt Nagy’s offense right now is beyond me. The Bears could only muster 47 total yards in last week’s defeat. We also don’t even know who will be under center for Chicago this week. While the public seems to assume rookie Justin Fields will start once again on Sunday, Andy Dalton did get a limited practice in on Wednesday. Heck, Nagy also said former Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles has a shot to start this week.
Meanwhile, the Lions enter this NFL betting divisional matchup winless. However, their performance exceeded expectations last week in a two-point home loss to the Baltimore Ravens. Of course, if not for Justin Tucker kicking an NFL record 66-yard field goal, the Lions would’ve won the game outright. Detroit has two talented playmakers at running back in D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Willaims. Both picked up rushing touchdowns last week. It’s no secret that Jared Goff can sling the ball around when he’s on. Furthermore, the Lions’ offensive line can probably be considered the best unit on either side of the ball in this matchup.
Lions vs Bears NFL Betting Picks
With the Bears’ defense no longer being the feared unit it once was, I firmly expect the Lions to hold their own offensively. Of course, it’s no secret that Detroit’s defense is a total dumpster fire. However, do we really expect an offense coordinated by Matt Nagy to light them up? Based on the line move, the betting sharps clearly don’t think so. The Lions snapped a five-game losing streak in this NFC North rivalry with a 34-30 road win late last year. They have what it takes to make it two straight and win outright as NFL betting underdogs once again on Sunday.
Raiders vs Chargers (-3)
We have another divisional matchup to round out our upset NFL betting picks for Week 4. In this case, however, the game features two winning football teams. The Los Angeles Chargers are laying a field goal ahead of their home tilt against the Las Vegas Raiders on Monday Night Football. L.A. rebounded from a disappointing home loss in Week 2 by upsetting the AFC West favorite Kansas City Chiefs last week. The Justin Herbert-Mike Williams connection is alive and well, and Austin Ekeler was everywhere last Sunday for the Chargers. The defense also came up huge with four turnovers. That being said, the fact that Los Angeles needed a late score to win the game despite a +4 turnover advantage is a bit concerning.
Jon Gruden’s Raiders enter their second Monday night matchup of the season unbeaten through three games. After winning outright as NFL betting underdogs in each of their first two contests, the Raiders survived an overtime game against the Miami Dolphins last week. Derek Carr threw for another 386 yards and two touchdowns in the win. His torrid start has him right in the middle of early-season NFL MVP discussions. The Dolphins actually did a nice job defending star tight end Darren Waller. This forced young wideouts Bryan Edwards and Henry Ruggs to step up, which they both did. Whether they can do so this week against the Chargers’ top-seven scoring defense remains to be seen.
Raiders vs Chargers NFL Betting Picks
For as improved as the Chargers have been defensively through the first three weeks, it’s actually the Raiders D that has taken the NFL betting world by storm. Largely expected to be one of the worst in football, Las Vegas ranks 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency after three weeks, per Football Outsiders. Can a suspect secondary keep Herbert and the L.A. passing attack in check? If so, the Raiders have a real shot at scoring the outright upset. Also keep in mind that while this is officially a Chargers home game, the majority of those in attendance at SoFi Stadium on Monday night will undoubtedly be supporting the silver and black.
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