I am bringing you a completely different type of article. This is simply a list of notes that our ELITE members get. I am keeping it in the same type of note format for you to enjoy. So, here’s today’s NBA DFS notes!
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10/25 4-Game Slate
Players Out (as of 2 pm CT)
Kevin Love, CLE — Nance to start, Dekker enters rotation. Love operated with a 27% usage, so lots of touches up for grabs
Aron Baynes, BOS — Horford and Morris see bumps
Rajon Rondo, LAL — Ball starts, Hart sees a slight bump\
Brandon Ingram, LAL — Kuzma starts
Will Barton, DEN — Breakdown below
Vegas Lines
- DEN-LAL — 236.5 — 3-point line
- CLE-DET — 218.5 — 8.5-point line
- BOS-OKC — 217.5 — 1-point line
- POR-ORL — 214.5 — 3.5-point line
Cavs-DET Breakdown: Kevin Love OUT
- Kevin Love was ruled out tonight
- Love has averaged:
- 27% usage
- 34 minutes
- 19 points, 16.3 shots attempted
- 13.5 rebounds
- Love has averaged:
- Larry Nance will start in his place
- Nance has played just 17 and 20 minutes coming back from injury, so I doubt he gets to 30 minutes despite starting
- Dekker enters the rotation, but will play less than 20 minutes, most likely
- Sample size with Love off the floor this season is too small to get much from it. (Osman and Nance have been on the floor without Love just 5.5 minutes through 5 games)
- I expect Nance to double-double, Thompson to see minutes and double-double (assuming he doesnt get into foul trouble), Osman and Hill take a couple more shots.
- On the other side, Drummond has 20 rebound upside tonight and Griffin should again have no trouble scoring.
- I’m slightly worried about the potential of a blowout. If you are too, exposure to a player like Ish Smith makes sense (That DK price though!). He plays no matter what and should still see time when the starters are pulled.
Bounce-Back Candidate?
CJ McCollum is in a good spot tonight, so make sure you have some exposure in GPPs. Why? CJ has been held under 30 fantasy points in every game this season on FD, and barely eclipsed it once on DK. This has caused his price to drop: FD $6700, DK $6100. Despite the struggles, he has 20+ real points twice in three games. His shot just isn’t falling at an efficient rate. What a day to get back on track, considering he plays the Magic, and the game is projected to be close. The matchup, combined with his low price and massive usage rate last game (30.74%), makes him an obvious GPP target for me. His recent struggles may cause other players to go elsewhere too.
Best Individual Matchups (DRPM)
DRPM: Defensive Real Plus-Minus. Below will be the best individual matchups
- Reggie Bullock, DET — -3.74
- Jaylen Brown, BOS — -2.45
- Lonzo Ball, LAL — -2.33
- Evan Fournier, ORL — -2.04
- Paul Millsap, DEN — -1.54
- Russell Westbrook, OKC — -1.35
- CJ McCollum, ORL — -1.34
- Andre Drummond, DET– -1.33
- Gary Harris, DEN — -1.04
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Worst Individual Matchups (DRPM)
DRPM: Defensive Real Plus-Minus. Below will be the worst individual matchups
- Nikola Vucevic — 4.08
- Blake Griffin — 3.1 — I put zero stock into this one
- Steven Adams — 2.68
- Jusuf Nurkic — 2.5
- Aaron Gordon — 2.37
- Jamal Murray — 2.31
- Kyle Kuzma — 2.14
Highest Usage on the Slate
- Westbrook — 40.55
- Paul George — 34.06 (31.63 with Westbrook)
- Griffin — 33.90
- Lillard — 32.60
- LeBron — 32.05
- Clarkson — 30.88
- Drummond — 30.60
- Schroder — 29.81 (Still 28.15 coming off the bench)
- Nurkic — 29.27
- McCollum — 28.34
- Fournier — 28.05
FD Punt Candidates (Under 4k)
- SG Langston Galloway ($3600)
- SG Torrey Craig ($3800)
- SF Lance Stephenson ($3900)
- C Nerlens Noel ($3900)
Nuggets Without Barton
Obviously the Nuggets are without Barton again. Here’s how it affects usage:
- Murray — +5.8% | 0.94 fantasy point per minute (fppm)
- Lyles — +2.6% | 0.88 fppm
- Millsap — +2.3% | 1.20 fppm
- Plumlee — +1.4% | 1.25 fppm
- Harris — +1.4% | 1.18 fppm
- Jokic — -0.7% | 1.65 fppm
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