The college football regular season will conclude this Saturday with the annual playing of America’s Game. Whenever the Navy Midshipmen and the Army Black Knights do battle on the gridiron, it is always a spectacle to behold. This year’s meeting is no different as both teams look to tie a bow on their respective seasons with a victory. This is also a very interesting game from a college football betting picks standpoint as there has been a change in the team favored by the Navy vs Army odds.
The following game preview provides the college football betting odds, trends and FEI Index ratings before sharing our official Navy vs Army prediction for the Week 15 matchup.
Navy vs Army Prediction | College Football Betting Picks
College Football Regular Season Game
Navy Midshipmen (4-7, 4-4 AAC) vs. Army Black Knights (5-6)
Date: Saturday, December 10, 2022
Time: 3 PM EST
Venue: Lincoln Financial Field — Philadelphia, PA
Coverage: CBS
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Navy has played several quality opponents tough down the stretch of the season. The Midshipmen covered the college football betting picks spread in losses to Cincinnati and Notre Dame. They also sprung an outright upset on the road over UCF in their most recent outing. Considering that all three of those games came after starting quarterback Tai Lavatai suffered a season-ending injury against Temple makes the stretch that much more impressive.
Meanwhile, Army can finish off the 2022 season on a three-game surge with a win over its biggest rival. Although the Black Knights can finish no better than .500 in the standings, they were victims of several close defeats this season. Losses to Air Force and Troy in early November came by a combined margin of just five points. Army rallied back to beat UConn and UMass to build momentum ahead of America’s Game.
Navy vs Army College Football Betting Picks and Odds
All college football betting odds for Navy vs Army can be found at BetMGM.
Moneyline: NAVY: (-150) | ARMY: (+130)
Point Spread: NAVY: -3 (+100) | ARMY: +3 (-120)
Total: 32.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
College Football FEI Ratings
The following table shares the Fremeau Efficiency Index rankings for both teams involved in this Big Ten Championship Game matchup. The purpose of the FEI ratings is to represent the per-possession scoring advantage that a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. The rankings for offense and defense are out of 131 total FBS-level teams.
Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) ratings are from Football Outsiders
| Team | Overall FEI (Rk) | OFEI (Rk) | DFEI (Rk) |
| Navy | -.03 (68) | -.17 (78) | .13 (48) |
| Army | -.23 (81) | .06 (61) | -.61 (108) |
Navy vs Army College Football Betting Trends
- Midshipmen are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a straight up win.
- Each of the Midshipmen’s last five games against teams with a losing record has gone OVER the total.
- Black Knights are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.
- Black Knights are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- The total has gone UNDER in 18 of the last 21 Navy vs Army head-to-head meetings.
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Navy vs Army Prediction | College Football Betting Picks
From a statistical standpoint, Navy has been far more effective defensively this season, particularly against the run. The Midshipmen come in allowing only 93.1 rushing yards per game to opponents. Not only does that rank top-5 in all of college football, but it is also more than 100 fewer yards than the 196.2 that Army has allowed on the ground this season.
With that being said, one has to figure that the Black Knights’ defense stands a better chance of having success on Saturday. The fact that both Navy and Army run the triple-option offense means that each defense will be well-equipped to slow down the opposing side. Of course, the run-heavy nature of the triple-option system bodes well for a fast-moving game as well.
History is firmly behind the Under in this spot as well. Dating back to 2005, there have been 53 games played between service academies. The Under has gone 43-9-1 over that span, good for a winning percentage of 82.6%!
Note that the above sample size includes Navy and Army’s respective matchups against Air Force from earlier this season. With combined point tallies of 23 and 20 points, respectively, neither game came anywhere close to surpassing the betting total. As for America’s Game itself, the last time a head-to-head meeting between Navy and Army surpassed the betting total was all the way back in 2005!
Add in the threat of rainy weather during Saturday’s game to go with the unmatched familiarity that the two sides have for one another and it’s hard to envision the 123rd edition of this rivalry will buck such a well-established trend.
UNDER THE TOTAL will be our official college football betting Navy vs Army prediction for the Week 15 matchup.
For what it’s worth, the ESPN Matchup Predictor gives Army a 51.2% chance to win this game outright.
Bet: UNDER 32.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
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