The NASCAR Cup Series concluded its 26-race regular season in dramatic fashion at Darlington Raceway last weekend. The quest for the series championship now begins in earnest. 16 drivers enter the 2024 NASCAR Playoffs, but only one will leave as champion. There are plenty of interesting storylines and angles scattered throughout this year’s field of title contenders.
Below, we run through the field of 16 drivers who are set to contend for this year’s NASCAR Cup Series Championship. Drivers are placed into tiers relative to their perceived chances of advancing through the NASCAR Playoffs and ultimately reaching the Championship 4. From regular season points champion, Tyler Reddick, to underdog, Harrison Burton, a synopsis of each driver is included.
NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs 2024 Driver Tiers
Tier 1 — The Favorites
Kyle Larson | No. 5, Hendrick Motorsports
Thanks to rain delaying the Indianapolis 500, Kyle Larson missed the entirety of the rain-shortened Coca-Cola 375…or whatever it was…it definitely wasn’t a “600” this year. Despite this, the No. 5 team nearly won the regular season points championship.
Larson enters the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs with 35 bonus points accumulated, the most of any driver. He has four race wins, ten top-5s and finished top-10 in over half of the 25 races he ran this season. Larson is the natural and deserving favorite to capture his second series title.
Tyler Reddick | No. 45, 23XI Racing
One can debate whether Tyler Reddick and 23XI Racing are truly ready to take home a championship in what is only the fourth year of operation for the race team. By virtue of winning the regular season points championship, Reddick is included in our “Favorites” tier.
The No. 45 team amassed 11 top-5 finishes and 18 top-10s this season, both of which led the NASCAR Cup Series. That kind of consistency and a healthy bank of bonus points figure to springboard Reddick into the Round of 8 at a minimum, at which anything is possible.
Tier 2 — The Contenders
Christopher Bell | No. 20, Joe Gibbs Racing
With a trio of outright wins and 15 top-10s that rank second only to Tyler Reddick, Christopher Bell has solidified himself as a legitimate contender heading into the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs. Overall, his season stats and results are second only to Kyle Larson in the series.
Despite his on-track success, Bell seemingly continues to fly under the radar relative to other drivers at the top of the field. He’s been a part of the Championship 4 in each of the last two seasons and has a great shot to return with 27 playoff points already banked.
William Byron | No. 24, Hendrick Motorsports
William Byron started the season off with a bang by winning the Daytona 500. Two more wins followed and 13 top-10 finishes for the season. However, only one of those came in the final five races. Byron has gotten off to hot starts in previous years before fading in the summer months. That said, the No. 24 team has 17 banked playoff points as a cushion and should find its groove.
Denny Hamlin | No. 11, Joe Gibbs Racing
Will this finally be the year that Denny Hamlin captures the NASCAR Cup Series Championship that has alluded him throughout an otherwise Hall of Fame-worthy career? He enters the postseason sixth in the standings with ten banked playoff points. The schedule of tracks in this year’s playoffs is unique, and Hamlin’s veteran prowess and well-rounded ability should serve him well whereas other drivers may falter.
Tier 3 — The Threats
Ryan Blaney | No. 12, Team Penske
One characteristic that all three drivers in this tier share is that they are recent NASCAR Cup Series champions. Ryan Blaney is back in the playoffs to defend his championship from a year ago. While his regular season results weren’t quite as impressive as the drivers in our top two tiers, Blaney did win a pair of races and has a nice little bank of playoff points. He wasn’t really considered a top contender last year either, but that didn’t stop him from winning it all.
Chase Elliott | No. 9, Hendrick Motorsports
Chase Elliott is back in the NASCAR Playoffs after missing out a year ago. He finally got back in the winner’s circle at COTA in the spring, but that wound up being his only outright victory during the regular season. The No. 9 team earned six additional top-5s and was steady throughout the year. He’s not the class of the playoff field or even the HMS garage, but it’s impossible to discount the talent or the equipment.
Joey Logano | No. 22, Team Penske
Statistically speaking, 2024 has been a down year for Joey Logano. That said, Team Penske has found a way to rise to the occasion in the NASCAR Playoffs in recent years, regardless of regular season results. Having just won the championship two years ago, experience and ability are hardly concerns. One wouldn’t think Loogano would be a title contender given the season he’s had, but he is most certainly a threat to surprise.
Tier 4 — The Deep Sleepers
Brad Keselowski | No. 6, RFK Racing
The resurgence of RFK Racing since Brad Keselowski joined the organization as a driver-owner continued in 2024. Keselowski and the No. 6 car made their long-overdue return to victory lane in the spring race at Darlington. Stepping up and contending for a championship this season seems far-fetched, but Keselowski is as capable of surprising as any thanks to his veteran savvy and consistency.
Alex Bowman | No. 48, Hendrick Motorsports
This is a case where the team and equipment arguably hold more weight than the driver himself. Alex Bowman bagged a win this season and was sneaky consistent with a dozen top-10s. If he can sustain that into the NASCAR Playoffs, he could advance deeper than most anticipate. The fact that he has largely been boom or bust over the course of his career prevents him from landing any higher than the “Deep Sleepers” tier despite having HMS equipment.
Martin Truex Jr. | No. 19, Joe Gibbs Racing
What a story it would be if Martin Truex Jr. could punctuate his NASCAR Cup Series career with a championship. He qualified for the playoffs on points but largely did so thanks to a strong start to the year. Truex has struggled recently, with only four top-15s and no finish better than eighth in the last 14 races. It’s a long shot, but the veteran can’t be written off entirely.
Tier 5 — The Round of 8 is the Ceiling
Chase Briscoe | No. 14, Stewart-Haas Racing
Chase Briscoe got the walk-off win in the Southern 500 to steal a playoff spot in the final regular season race. He is the lone soldier for Stewart-Haas Racing in the playoff field, so it will be interesting to see how much of a bump his equipment gets, especially given that the team is folding NASCAR operations after this year. A Round of 12 appearance is not out of the question. Anything further would be a true accomplishment.
Ty Gibbs | No. 54, Joe Gibbs Racing
In his second full-time season in the NASCAR Cup Series, Ty Gibbs is set to contend for a championship. Like his teammate, Martin Truex Jr., Gibbs qualified for the playoffs on points. He scored seven top-5s and 11 top-10s this season. JGR equipment could springboard him forward a round or two, but he is still at least another year of experience away from seriously contending for the title.
Austin Cindric | No. 2, Team Penske
This marks the second time that Austin Cindric has qualified for the NASCAR Playoffs. He did so as a rookie when he won the Daytona 500 and actually advanced to the Round of 12 before being eliminated. Cindric lucked into his win this year when teammate Ryan Blaney ran out of gas on the last lap. Otherwise, he has only two additional top-10s on the season. He does have a chance to advance though thanks to his prowess on superspeedway and road courses.
Tier 6 — Just Happy to Be Here
Daniel Suarez | No. 99, Trackhouse Racing
Sure, Daniel Suarez could advance out of the Round of 16. After all, the first race of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs takes place at Atlanta, the sight of his lone win this season. However, it has been a very middling year for Suarez and all of Trackhouse Racing otherwise. Teammate Ross Chastain didn’t even qualify for the playoffs, and it would be a surprise to see Suarez make much noise.
Harrison Burton | No. 21, Wood Brothers Racing
It was a great, feel-good moment watching Harrison Burton get the 100th win for Wood Brothers Racing at Daytona two weeks ago with his dad on the TV broadcast. Yes, he’s in the playoffs, and yes, there are some wild card tracks. That hasn’t really mattered for Burton at the Cup Series level, evidenced by him having only one additional top-10 finish to go along with the win this season. “Just Happy to Be Here” describes his postseason outlook perfectly.
