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LSU vs Purdue Prediction, Odds and College Football Betting Picks for Citrus Bowl

The New Year’s tradition that is the Citrus Bowl will be renewed on Monday with a matchup between the LSU Tigers and the Purdue Boilermakers. Both teams exceeded expectations this year by making it to their respective conference title games. Now they are set to collide in a historic bowl game that dates all the way back to 1947. Unfortunately, a coaching change, various NFL Draft opt-outs and transfers have cast a cloud over the game itself. Due largely to all of the personnel turnover, the LSU vs Purdue odds and college football betting picks view the SEC representative as a massive favorite.

The following game preview provides the college football betting odds, trends and FEI Index ratings before sharing our official LSU vs Purdue prediction for the Citrus Bowl matchup.

LSU vs Purdue Prediction | College Football Betting Picks

Citrus Bowl
LSU Tigers (9-4, 6-2 SEC) vs. Purdue Boilermakers (8-5, 6-3 Big Ten)
Date: Monday, January 2, 2023
Time: 1 p.m. EST
Venue: Camping World Stadium — Orlando, FL
Coverage: ABC

To say that LSU surpassed expectations in Brian Kelly’s first year at the helm would be an understatement. What was supposed to be a rebuilding year saw the Tigers somehow manage to win the beast that is the SEC West Division. Few could’ve seen that coming after LSU was blown out by Tennessee on its home field in early October. The Bayou Bengals rallied to win each of their next four games including a statement overtime win over Alabama. However, LSU does come into the Citrus Bowl on a two-game skid after losing to Texas A&M and again to Georgia in the SEC title game.

Playing for a conference championship also seemed like a far-fetched idea for Purdue after losing two of three to start the year. After surviving a major scare from FAU, the Boilermakers rattled off three straight league wins to get back into the thick of the Big Ten West Division race. A road win over then-division leader Illinois was the key result that spurred the Boilermakers to the conference title game where a one-point halftime deficit ultimately became a 21-point loss to Michigan. The following week, head coach Jeff Brohm left to take the same position at Louisville, his alma mater.

Jayden Daniels LSU vs Purdue prediction odds college football betting picks Citrus Bowl game predictions
Credit: AP Photo/John Bazemore

LSU vs Purdue College Football Betting Picks and Odds

All college football betting odds for LSU vs Purdue can be found at BetOnline Sportsbook.

Moneyline: LSU: (-650) | PUR: (+500)
Point Spread: LSU: -15 (-114) | PUR: +15 (-106)
Total: 54 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

College Football FEI Ratings

The following table shares the Fremeau Efficiency Index rankings for both teams involved in this Citrus Bowl matchup. The purpose of the FEI ratings is to represent the per-possession scoring advantage that a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. The rankings for offense and defense are out of 131 total FBS-level teams.

Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) ratings are froFootball Outsiders

TeamOverall FEI (Rk)OFEI (Rk)DFEI (Rk)
LSU.74 (12)1.23 (11).57 (26)
Purdue.28 (40).47 (39).15 (47)
  • Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven bowl games.
  • The OVER is 6-1 in the Tigers’ last seven games overall.
  • Each of the Tigers’ last four bowl games has gone OVER the total.
  • Boilermakers are 31-19 ATS in their last 50 games against opponents averaging 30+ points per game offensively.
  • Eight of the Boilermakers’ last nine games against teams with a winning record have gone OVER the total.
  • Boilermakers have allowed 46.8 points per game in their last six bowl games, all of which went OVER the total.
  • Boilermakers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against SEC opponents.

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LSU vs Purdue Prediction | College Football Betting Picks

If both sides were at full strength in this matchup, LSU would certainly profile as the better team. Although neither team will have its full complement of players, the Tigers will at least look like the team that advanced to the SEC Championship Game. The same cannot be said of Purdue in the wake of Jeff Brohm’s departure.

A Purdue offense that was the strength of the team all season long will be severely shorthanded in the Citrus Bowl. Quarterback Aidan O’Connel, leading Big Ten receiver Charlie Jones and tight end Payne Durham have all opted out. Senior Austin Burton is expected to draw the start under center, but he will be very much up against it considering that Jones and Durham accounted for 166 receptions and over 1,900 yards receiving. No other Purdue pass-catcher had more than 424 yards this season.

On the flip side, LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels has stated that he is healthy and set to start on Monday after injuring his ankle against Texas A&M and then aggravating it in the SEC title game. The Tigers will have to overcome a pair of losses at wide receiver as both Kayshon Boutte and Jaray Jenkins have opted out to prepare for the 2023 NFL Draft. However, Daniels will still have leading receiver Malik Nabors at his disposal to go along with his own rushing abilities.

To put it bluntly, Daniels’ dual threat capabilities figure to be too much for a lackluster Purdue defense to contain. The absences of coordinator Ron English, cornerback Cory Trice and hybrid linebacker Jalen Graham certainly won’t help the Boilermakers’ cause.

LSU will be down a couple of NFL Draft opt-outs up front, but there will still be plenty of young talent suiting up. Freshman linebacker Harold Perkins will easily be the best player on the field when the Tigers are on defense in this game.

Overall, Purdue is going to be completely out-classed from a personnel standpoint in this game. Despite the massive line move that has already transpired, it’s tough to envision anything but a dominant LSU victory.

LSU COVERS will be our official college football betting LSU vs Purdue prediction for the Citrus Bowl.

For what it’s worth, the ESPN Matchup Predictor gives LSU a 68.4% chance to win this game outright.

Bet: LSU -15 (-114 at BetOnline Sportsbook)

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