Liberty vs Toledo Prediction, Odds and College Football Betting Picks for Boca Raton Bowl

The second of two college football bowl games scheduled for Tuesday pits the Liberty Flames against the Toledo Rockets in the Boca Raton Bowl. Although both teams looked very impressive for the majority of the season, neither finished out the season in top form. Add in a coaching change and personnel concerns and there is a lot to monitor when making college football betting picks. The Liberty vs Toledo odds give a slight edge to the Mid-American Conference representative in this matchup.

The following game preview provides the college football betting odds, trends and FEI Index ratings before sharing our official Liberty vs Toledo prediction for the Boca Raton Bowl matchup.

Liberty vs Toledo Prediction | College Football Betting Picks

Boca Raton Bowl
Liberty Flames (8-4) vs. Toledo Rockets (8-5, 5-3 MAC)
Date: Tuesday, December 20, 2022
Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
Venue: FAU Stadium — Boca Raton, FL
Coverage: ESPN

Liberty was able to win eight of its first nine games this season with the only loss coming by a single point. After an upset win over Arkansas, the Flames even cracked the AP Top 25. However, things went sideways after that. Liberty closed the regular season with three brutal losses to UConn, Virginia Tech and New Mexico State. Head coach Hugh Freeze then departed the program for the same role at Auburn. Josh Aldridge will serve as the interim coach for the bowl game.

After clinching the MAC West Division with two games remaining in the regular season, Toledo backed its way into the conference title game with a pair of defeats. Injuries at the quarterback position played a big part in the Rockets’ late-season struggles. Fortunately, starter Dequan Finn was able to return and help Toledo defeat Ohio in the MAC Championship Game. Although there have been a lot of rumblings that Finn will transfer out of the program, he is expected to play in the Boca Raton Bowl.

Liberty vs Toledo College Football Betting Picks and Odds

All college football betting odds for Liberty vs Toledo can be found at BetOnline Sportsbook.

Moneyline: LIB: (-450) | TOL: (+360)
Point Spread: LIB: -12.5 (-110) | TOL: +12.5 (-110)
Total: 41 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

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College Football FEI Ratings

The following table shares the Fremeau Efficiency Index rankings for both teams involved in this Boca Raton Bowl matchup. The purpose of the FEI ratings is to represent the per-possession scoring advantage that a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. The rankings for offense and defense are out of 131 total FBS-level teams.

Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) ratings are from Football Outsiders

Liberty vs Toledo College Football Betting Trends

• Flames are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss.
• Flames are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as a betting underdog of seven points or less.
• Seven of the Flames’ last eight games against opponents averaging more than 32 points per game have gone UNDER the total.
• Rockets are 0-4 both straight up and ATS in their last four bowl games.
• The OVER is 8-0 in the Rockets’ last eight games following an ATS win.
• The UNDER is 4-0 in the Rockets’ last four games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
• Flames went 3-0 ATS in their three previous matchups against MAC opponents that had betting odds.

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Liberty vs Toledo Prediction | College Football Betting Picks

The way in which Liberty finished the season inspires very little confidence that the Flames would spring an upset in the Boca Raton Bowl. With Hugh Freeze having moved on to Auburn and a handful of players jumping into the transfer portal, it’s tough to predict how motivated Liberty will be for this bowl game.

For Toledo, the key to Tuesday’s matchup will be Dequan Finn’s status. If the Rockets have their duel-threat quarterback available and healthy, one has to like their chances of covering the Liberty vs Toledo odds. Finn played well in the conference title game despite being less than 100%. Of particular note is the fact that he ran the ball 18 times for 86 yards.

On the season, Liberty ranks 24th defensively against the pass allowing only 197.7 yards per game. Clearly, the best way to attack the Flames’ defense is on the ground, something that Toledo figures to be more than willing to do. Finn and lead running back Jacquez Stuart combined to rush for over 1,250 yards this year, and the Rockets averaged roughly 174 yards per game on the ground as a team.

Meanwhile, the quarterback position was been a point of chaos for Liberty throughout the season. In the Flames’ season-finale against New Mexico State, Charlie Brewer, Kaidon Salter and Johnathan Bennett all saw playing time. The lack of consistency and continuity at QB has made life much tougher for game-changing skill players like Demario Douglas.

In addition to the revolving door at quarterback, lead running back Dae Dae Hunter also sustained a season-ending injury. Liberty has also lost a couple of impactful defenders to the transfer portal. Add in a high chance of rain during the game that figures to play right into the hands of Toledo’s run-heavy offensive attack and the Rockets appear to be set up for success.

TOLEDO COVERS will be our official college football betting Liberty vs Toledo prediction for the Boca Raton Bowl.

For what it’s worth, the ESPN Matchup Predictor gives Liberty a 50.1% chance to win this game outright.

Bet: Toledo -3.5 (-110 at BetOnline Sportsbook)