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    You are at:Home»Betting»Liberty vs Toledo Prediction, Odds and College Football Betting Picks for Boca Raton Bowl

    Liberty vs Toledo Prediction, Odds and College Football Betting Picks for Boca Raton Bowl

    Henry JohnBy Henry JohnDecember 19, 2022Updated:December 23, 2022No Comments6 Mins Read Betting
    Liberty vs Toledo prediction odds college football betting picks Boca Raton Bowl 2022 predictions betmgm bonus code
    Credit: The San Diego Union-Tribune
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    The second of two college football bowl games scheduled for Tuesday pits the Liberty Flames against the Toledo Rockets in the Boca Raton Bowl. Although both teams looked very impressive for the majority of the season, neither finished out the season in top form. Add in a coaching change and personnel concerns and there is a lot to monitor when making college football betting picks. The Liberty vs Toledo odds give a slight edge to the Mid-American Conference representative in this matchup.

    The following game preview provides the college football betting odds, trends and FEI Index ratings before sharing our official Liberty vs Toledo prediction for the Boca Raton Bowl matchup.

    Liberty vs Toledo Prediction | College Football Betting Picks

    Boca Raton Bowl
    Liberty Flames (8-4) vs. Toledo Rockets (8-5, 5-3 MAC)
    Date: Tuesday, December 20, 2022
    Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
    Venue: FAU Stadium — Boca Raton, FL
    Coverage: ESPN

    Liberty was able to win eight of its first nine games this season with the only loss coming by a single point. After an upset win over Arkansas, the Flames even cracked the AP Top 25. However, things went sideways after that. Liberty closed the regular season with three brutal losses to UConn, Virginia Tech and New Mexico State. Head coach Hugh Freeze then departed the program for the same role at Auburn. Josh Aldridge will serve as the interim coach for the bowl game.

    After clinching the MAC West Division with two games remaining in the regular season, Toledo backed its way into the conference title game with a pair of defeats. Injuries at the quarterback position played a big part in the Rockets’ late-season struggles. Fortunately, starter Dequan Finn was able to return and help Toledo defeat Ohio in the MAC Championship Game. Although there have been a lot of rumblings that Finn will transfer out of the program, he is expected to play in the Boca Raton Bowl.

    Dequan Finn Liberty vs Toledo prediction odds college football betting picks Boca Raton Bowl game predictions
    Credit: The San Diego Union-Tribune

    Liberty vs Toledo College Football Betting Picks and Odds

    All college football betting odds for Liberty vs Toledo can be found at BetOnline Sportsbook.

    Moneyline: LIB: (-450) | TOL: (+360)
    Point Spread: LIB: -12.5 (-110) | TOL: +12.5 (-110)
    Total: 41 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)


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    College Football FEI Ratings

    The following table shares the Fremeau Efficiency Index rankings for both teams involved in this Boca Raton Bowl matchup. The purpose of the FEI ratings is to represent the per-possession scoring advantage that a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. The rankings for offense and defense are out of 131 total FBS-level teams.

    Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) ratings are from Football Outsiders

    TeamOverall FEI (Rk)OFEI (Rk)DFEI (Rk)
    Liberty-.22 (81)-.49 (90).17 (44)
    Toledo-.21 (80)-.20 (79)-.02 (61)

    Liberty vs Toledo College Football Betting Trends

    • Flames are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss.
    • Flames are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as a betting underdog of seven points or less.
    • Seven of the Flames’ last eight games against opponents averaging more than 32 points per game have gone UNDER the total.
    • Rockets are 0-4 both straight up and ATS in their last four bowl games.
    • The OVER is 8-0 in the Rockets’ last eight games following an ATS win.
    • The UNDER is 4-0 in the Rockets’ last four games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
    • Flames went 3-0 ATS in their three previous matchups against MAC opponents that had betting odds.

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    Liberty vs Toledo Prediction | College Football Betting Picks

    The way in which Liberty finished the season inspires very little confidence that the Flames would spring an upset in the Boca Raton Bowl. With Hugh Freeze having moved on to Auburn and a handful of players jumping into the transfer portal, it’s tough to predict how motivated Liberty will be for this bowl game.

    For Toledo, the key to Tuesday’s matchup will be Dequan Finn’s status. If the Rockets have their duel-threat quarterback available and healthy, one has to like their chances of covering the Liberty vs Toledo odds. Finn played well in the conference title game despite being less than 100%. Of particular note is the fact that he ran the ball 18 times for 86 yards.

    On the season, Liberty ranks 24th defensively against the pass allowing only 197.7 yards per game. Clearly, the best way to attack the Flames’ defense is on the ground, something that Toledo figures to be more than willing to do. Finn and lead running back Jacquez Stuart combined to rush for over 1,250 yards this year, and the Rockets averaged roughly 174 yards per game on the ground as a team.

    DeMario Douglas’ twitter handle is @popshotta3 and he was popshotta out of a canon on this 75-yard touchdown 🔥#CollegeFootball | @LibertyFootball

    pic.twitter.com/v36c3lggzD

    — College Sports Network (@CFN365) November 12, 2022

    Meanwhile, the quarterback position was been a point of chaos for Liberty throughout the season. In the Flames’ season-finale against New Mexico State, Charlie Brewer, Kaidon Salter and Johnathan Bennett all saw playing time. The lack of consistency and continuity at QB has made life much tougher for game-changing skill players like Demario Douglas.

    In addition to the revolving door at quarterback, lead running back Dae Dae Hunter also sustained a season-ending injury. Liberty has also lost a couple of impactful defenders to the transfer portal. Add in a high chance of rain during the game that figures to play right into the hands of Toledo’s run-heavy offensive attack and the Rockets appear to be set up for success.

    TOLEDO COVERS will be our official college football betting Liberty vs Toledo prediction for the Boca Raton Bowl.

    For what it’s worth, the ESPN Matchup Predictor gives Liberty a 50.1% chance to win this game outright.

    Bet: Toledo -3.5 (-110 at BetOnline Sportsbook)


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    Boca Raton Bowl Bowl Season College Football College Football Betting College Football Bowl Games Demario Douglas Dequan Finn Jacquez Stuart Liberty Flames NCAA Sports Betting Toledo Rockets
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    Henry John
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    Henry’s passion for sports dates all the way back to childhood and has ultimately led to a full-fledged career as an analyst and content creator. After getting his start penning fantasy football articles, he forrayed into the betting side of the business in early 2019. His love for sports and statistics proved to be an ideal match with the dedicated research and strategy that handicapping requires. Henry currently specializes in betting analysis and picks for college football, college basketball and NASCAR. He counts the NFL, the WNBA, and NBA player props as additional leagues/markets of interest. Henry graduated from SUNY Buffalo in 2021 with a Communication Studies degree and a Psychology minor. A native of the Finger Lakes region in Upstate New York, he and his pup, Harold, have since relocated to Laramie, Wyoming. Thanks to his professional goals within the sports betting industry, there has been a whole lot of steam on the odds for a move to Las Vegas in 2023! Most of Henry’s free time is spent on outdoor adventures, playing chess, snowboarding, or reading a good book. He is also a competitive powerlifter and aspires to qualify for the USAPL Nationals meet within the next 2-3 years.

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