Kansas State vs TCU Prediction, Odds and College Football Betting Picks for Big 12 Championship Game

There will certainly be an abundance of purple at this year’s Big 12 Championship Game between the Kansas State Wildcats and the TCU Horned Frogs. For TCU, a win on Saturday would remove all doubt with regard to the Horned Frogs making the College Football Playoff. Despite the vast majority of public bettors taking the favorite with their Kansas State vs TCU prediction, the odds continue to suggest that this game is a virtual toss-up.

The following game preview provides the college football betting odds, trends and FEI Index ratings before sharing our official Kansas State vs TCU prediction for the Big 12 Championship Game.

Kansas State vs TCU Prediction | College Football Betting Picks

2022 Big 12 Championship Game
Kansas State Wildcats (9-3, 7-2 Big 12) vs. TCU Horned Frogs (12-0, 9-0 Big 12)
Date: Saturday, December 3, 2022
Time: 12 PM EST
Venue: AT&T Stadium — Arlington, TX
Coverage: ABC

After losing on the road to TCU back in mid-October, Kansas State went on to win four of its final five games to secure a rematch. What’s more, each of those four wins came by margins of 17 points or more. Will Howard has filled in admirably at quarterback for Adrian Martinez after the latter was lost to injury early on in the Wildcats’ loss to TCU. Star running back Deuce Vaughn and wideout Malik Knowles have been key cogs in the Wildcats’ offense throughout the season.

Perhaps the craziest element of TCU’s magical season is the fact that Max Duggan didn’t even open the year as the starting quarterback. Duggan has certainly made the most of a loaded receiving corps headlined by Taye Barber and Quentin Johnston. The Horned Frogs have scored at least 34 points in all but two games this season. After pulling out a miracle comeback win over Baylor two weeks ago to remain perfect, TCU concluded the regular season with a 48-point blowout of Iowa State.

Kansas State vs TCU College Football Betting Picks and Odds

All college football betting odds for Kansas State vs TCU can be found at BetOnline Sportsbook.

Moneyline: KSU: (+115) | TCU: (-135)
Point Spread: KSU: +2.5 (-115) | TCU: -2.5 (-105)
Total: 62 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

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College Football FEI Ratings

The following table shares the Fremeau Efficiency Index rankings for both teams involved in this Big 12 Championship Game matchup. The purpose of the FEI ratings is to represent the per-possession scoring advantage that a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. The rankings for offense and defense are out of 131 total FBS-level teams.

Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) ratings are from Football Outsiders

Kansas State vs TCU College Football Betting Trends

• Wildcats are 4-1 both straight up and ATS in their last five games overall.
• Each of the Wildcats’ last four games following a straight up win has gone OVER the total.
• Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last seven matchups against opponents on a winning streak of six or more games.
• Horned Frogs are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
• Horned Frogs are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games played on a field turf surface.
• Each of the Horned Frogs’ last seven games against teams allowing less than 20 points per game defensively have gone OVER the total.
• Six of the last seven Wildcats vs Horned Frogs head-to-head matchups have gone UNDER the total.

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Kansas State vs TCU Prediction | College Football Betting Picks

A quick glance at the public betting splits shows that the vast majority are expecting the Big 12 Championship Game to be a shootout. Given how proficient Max Duggan and the TCU offense have been for most of the season, it’s easy to see where this line of thinking comes from. However, as this will be the second time these teams have met this season, a lower-scoring affair is quite possible.

Aside from Texas (who held TCU to a season-low 17 points) and a dead Iowa State team walking in the season finale, Kansas State is the top-ranked team in adjusted defensive efficiency that the Horned Frogs have faced. The Wildcats may have allowed 38 points in the first meeting between the teams, but there are multiple reasons to believe Saturday’s rematch will be different. 

For starters, one has to assume that the Wildcats won’t lose both Will Howard and Adrian Martinez to injury as they did in the first meeting. K-State’s inability to move the chains late in that game was a big reason why the Horned Frogs were able to pull away on the scoreboard. TCU also enjoyed a +2 turnover margin in that October matchup.

Another key factor to consider is that a great deal of TCU’s offensive success in the first meeting came via Kendre Miller and the run game. With Kansas State’s offense also centered heavily around Deuce Vaughn and the ground game, there could be far fewer possessions for both teams than many are expecting in Saturday’s rematch.

UNDER THE TOTAL will be our official college football betting Kansas State vs TCU prediction for the Big 12 Championship Game.

For what it’s worth, the ESPN Matchup Predictor gives TCU a 53.9% chance to win this game outright.

Bet: Under 62 (-110 at Bovada Sportsbook)