The Iowa State Cyclones and Illinois Fighting Illini will face off in the Sweet 16 of the 2024 NCAA Basketball Tournament. In the second round of the NCAA Tournament, Iowa State pulled away from Washington State in the second half, winning 67-56. Illinois’ potent offense kept rolling in their round two matchup with Duquesne, dominating from start to finish in an 89-63 win. This matchup features arguably the top defense versus top offense in college basketball, meaning an Iowa State vs Illinois prediction could go either way.
Below, we will preview this Sweet 16 NCAA Tournament college basketball game, providing data, trends and analysis. Which school will win and keep their hopes of winning the championship trophy alive?
Iowa State vs Illinois Prediction and Sweet 16 March Madness Picks
2024 NCAA Tournament – Sweet 16
No. 2 Iowa State Cyclones (29-7) vs. No. 3 Illinois Fighting Illini (28-8)
Date: Thursday, March 28, 2024
Time: 10:09 PM EST
Venue: TD Garden — Boston, MA
Coverage: TBS/TruTV
Iowa State vs Illinois March Madness Odds
All college basketball betting odds for Iowa State vs Illinois can be found at BetUS Sportsbook.
Moneyline: ISU: (-125) | ILL: (+105)
Point Spread: ISU: -1.5 (-110) | ILL: +1.5 (-110)
Total: 146 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
KenPom Rankings | Bracketology
KenPom Rankings are from KenPom.com
| Team | Rk | AdjO | AdjD | AdjT |
| Iowa St | 7 | 114.3 (49) | 87.5 (1) | 67.1 (205) |
| Illinois | 10 | 126.7 (1) | 101.7 (92) | 69.7 (71) |
Iowa State vs Illinois College Basketball Trends
- Iowa State is 13-2 in non-conference college basketball games this season.
- Illinois is 11-2 in non-conference college basketball games this season.
- Iowa State is 25-10-1 against the spread this year.
- The OVER is 20-5 in Illinois’ last 25 games.
- Iowa State is seeking its first Elite Eight since 2000.
- This will be Illinois’ first Sweet 16 game since 2005.
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Iowa State vs Illinois Prediction | March Madness Sweet 16 Picks
Iowa State’s defense versus Illinois’ offense: the irresistible force versus immovable object. For just the 10th time since 2012, we will see KenPom’s number one offense and defense go head-to-head. In the nine previous meetings, the top defense is 5-4.
So what makes these two units so efficient? For Iowa State, it stems from their relentless ball pressure and thus ability to force turnovers. Guard duo Tamin Lipsey and Keshon Gilbert are two of the best perimeter defenders and average a combined 4.6 steals a game. As a team, the Cyclones force turnovers on 25.2% of opponent possessions, the second-highest clip in the country. If the ball does get inside, Iowa State sends hard traps and doubles to post players and drivers, forcing tough passes to be made to beat their rotations.
As prolific as it is, Illinois’ offense looks and operates differently than almost everyone else in the sport. Entering the year, the Illini didn’t have a true point guard on the roster, a hole that many thought would be their Achilles heel. Instead, Brad Underwood molded an offense that revolved around using their size advantages to find mismatches and operate from there. The smallest player in their starting lineup is Marcus Domask, a 6-6 wing who excels in the post. With that being the case, it is often challenging for opponents to find an Illinois player for their smaller players to guard. Then even if you can match up with the Illini in the half-court, Terrence Shannon Jr. is one of the top all-around players in the sport and impossible to slow down in transition.
With all the talk about Iowa State’s defense and Illinois’ offense, and rightfully so, this game could very well be decided on the other end of the floor. At the end of the day, Illinois will be able to score somewhat efficiently against everyone, but Iowa State likely won’t let them post a crazy offensive output. What remains to be seen is how Iowa State’s offense will fair against the Illini defense. Both units have struggled at times this season, but have the personnel and upside for a good single-game performance. I believe that with Illinois’ athleticism and size, they will be up for the defensive challenge, understanding the necessity of making stops to complement their scoring, which could be hindered by the Cyclone defense. For our Sweet 16 Iowa State vs Illinois prediction, we are picking the Illinois Fighting Illini to win and move on in the NCAA Tournament.
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NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Schedule
Thursday, March 28th
Arizona vs Clemson (7:09 PM EST)
UConn vs San Diego State (7:39 PM)
North Carolina vs Alabama (9:39 PM)
Iowa State vs Illinois (10:09 PM)
Friday, March 29th
Marquette vs NC State (7:09 PM EST)
Purdue vs Gonzaga (7:39 PM)
Houston vs Duke (9:39 PM)
Tennessee vs Creighton (10:09 PM)
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