The Illinois Fighting Illini and Morehead State Eagles will face off in the first round of the 2024 NCAA Basketball Tournament. Illinois enters March Madness as winners of four straight including three in a row to win the Big Ten Tournament in Minneapolis. The Eagles of Morehead State will come into this game on a six-game winning streak, including an Ohio Valley Tournament championship to receive the sole bid from that league. With two completely different styles of play, this Illinois vs Morehead State prediction will be decided by which team is more likely to impose their will.
Below, we will preview this NCAA Tournament college basketball game, giving an Illinois vs Morehead State prediction using trends, data, and analysis. Which school will win and keep their hopes of winning the championship trophy alive?
Illinois vs Morehead State Prediction and March Madness Expert Picks
2024 NCAA Tournament
No. 3 Illinois Fighting Illini (26-8) vs. No. 14 Morehead State Eagles (26-8)
Date: Thursday, March 21, 2024
Time: 3:10 PM EST
Venue: CHI Health Center — Omaha, NE
Coverage: TruTV
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Illinois vs Morehead State March Madness Odds
All college basketball betting odds for Illinois vs Morehead State can be found at BetUS Sportsbook.
Moneyline: ILL: (-800) | MORE: (+550)
Point Spread: ILL: -12 (-110) | MORE: +12 (-110)
Total: Over: 148 (-110) | Under: 148 (-110)
KenPom Rankings | Bracketology
KenPom Rankings are from KenPom.com
| Team | Rk | AdjO | AdjD | AdjT |
| Illinois | 10 | 125.6 (3) | 101.6 (93) | 69.9 (56) |
| Morehead St | 111 | 109 (124) | 103.5 (120) | 64.2 (335) |
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Illinois vs Morehead State College Basketball Trends
- Illinois is 9-2 in non-conference college basketball games this season.
- Morehead State is 5-4 in non-conference college basketball games this season.
- The OVER is 18-5 in Illinois’ last 23 games.
- Morehead State is 19-11 against the spread this year.
- Illinois has not made the Sweet Sixteen since 2005.
- Both teams have won 12 of their last 15 games.
Illinois vs Morehead State Prediction | March Madness Expert Picks
For a first-round matchup, this can be seen as a tough draw for both teams. Illinois is one of the top offenses in the country thanks to their premier size, athleticism, and talent. They love to get out and run and are led by Terrence Shannon Jr., one of the top athletes in all of college basketball who scored 102 total points in the Illini’s three Big Ten Tournament games. They have ball handlers, playmakers, and shooters across the entire lineup which makes them a tough matchup for almost every team, especially when they get in transition. Unfortunately for Illinois, Morehead State plays at one of the slowest tempos in the country and will look to stop Illinois’ potent transition offense from having too much of an effect on this game.
Although Illinois’ size and strength will definitely present a problem for the Eagles, Morehead State is one of the few mid-majors out there that are as tall as the Illini. All eight of their key rotation players are at least 6-3, with six of them being 6-5 or above. They rely on senior forward Riley Minix for much of their offense, who averaged 20.8 points this season and has scored at least 20 in 12 of their last 13 games. One thing that has plagued the Eagles all year is their turnover issues. They turn it over on 18.5% of their possessions, and if that happens during this game, the Illini offense that is predicated on running, will have a field day.
I see this 3 vs. 14 matchup as one that really has a chance of being competitive. If Morehead State can be successful in slowing the game down and find a way to protect the basketball, they can stay in it for a long time. There’s also a scenario where Illinois’ shots are falling, their size overwhelms Morehead State, and it’s ugly from the start. Regardless of which team has their way in terms of tempo and style of play, I can’t imagine a world in which the Illini’s talent doesn’t prevail in the end. For our Illinois vs Morehead State prediction, we are picking the Illinois Fighting Illini to win and move on in the NCAA Tournament.
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