This weekend sees the NASCAR Cup Series jump up north of the Mason-Dixon Line for the first time all season. Delaware’s Dover International Speedway will host the Drydene 400 on Sunday afternoon. It marks the first and only race at the concrete mile this season. Dover is no easy place to run, so great care must be taken when exploring NASCAR betting odds for the race. Although the favorites are certainly the popular choices, there are plenty of opportunities to win some serious cash on NASCAR picks this week.
Read on for a breakdown of the NASCAR odds and best NASCAR betting plays for Sunday’s Drydene 400 race at the “Monster Mile.”
Drydene 400 Race Info
50th Drydene 400
Date: Sunday, May 16, 2021
Start Time: 2 p.m. EST
Track: Dover International Speedway — Dover, DE
Coverage: FS1
Distance: 400 miles
Stages: Three (Laps 1-120; Laps 121-240; Laps 241-400)
Pole Sitter: Martin Truex Jr.
Defending Champion: Kevin Harvick
Check out the complete Drydene 400 starting lineup and race stats!
Drydene 400 NASCAR Betting Odds
On the heels of a dominant win in the Goodyear 400 win last weekend at Darlington, Martin Truex Jr. (+350) comes in as the NASCAR betting favorite this week. His strong history at the ‘Monster Mile’ speaks for itself. Truex has an average finish of 4.3 over the last ten NASCAR Cup Series races at Dover. Eight of those starts have seen him finish in the top-4. He won the first race at the Delaware track back in 2019 and has finished runner-up in each of the three races here since. Not only is Truex the only driver with multiple wins in 2021 but his stats at Dover are the best in the field.
It should come as no surprise that the driver with the next shortest odds to win the Drydene 400 is Kyle Larson (+450). The No. 5 car nearly ran Truex down late last week on their way to a second-place showing. Although he missed both races at Dover International Speedway last year, Larson also boasts a strong track record at the concrete oval. He has a win and three top-10 finishes in his last four starts here. Add in the Hendrick Motorsports equipment boost he has this year and he’s sure to be in contention on Sunday.
Drydene 400 Betting Odds Reflect Track Stats
When it comes to the other drivers with single-digit NASCAR betting odds to win the Drydene 400, it’s clear that prior starts at Dover are a significant factor. Along with Truex and Larson, the four other drivers who have odds to win shorter than 10-1 are Denny Hamlin (+600), Kevin Harvick (+750), Kyle Busch (+800) and Chase Elliott (+800). All four of those drivers notably join the two favorites as ranking in the top-7 in average finish over the last ten races at the ‘Monster Mile’.
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Hamlin won the first race here last season and Harvick took the second. Both the No. 11 and No. 4 teams have continued to put together solid runs, even if the laps led haven’t necessarily been there. Elliott ranks fourth in average finish (11.3) over the last ten races while Busch has four top-10 finishes in the last six races. All four drivers have also won at Dover International Speedway before.
Byron Brings the Value
He may only have one win on the season, but no NASCAR Cup Series driver has been more consistent this season than William Byron (+1600). The Hendrick Motorsports No. 24 camp has strung together an incredible streak of ten straight top-10 finishes. The sample size for the 23-year-old at Dover is limited to just six NASCAR Cup Series starts, but it isn’t bad by any means. Combine a top-5 run in the second race last year with his 2021 form and 16-1 odds to win are certainly enticing value.
Our NASCAR betting trends and stats article for the Drydene 400 is a must-read for those wagering on this weekend’s race!
Drydene 400 NASCAR Betting Picks
Drydene 400 Race Winner: Kyle Larson (+450)
Look, Kyle Larson certainly isn’t offering up the most grandiose NASCAR betting payout this week. That being said, it’s impossible to ignore how strong the No. 5 team has been the past couple of weeks. Unfortunately, they don’t have a win to show for it. The loose tire debacle at Kansas wiped out a lead of more than three seconds. Larson was able to run down Martin Truex Jr. in the final stage last week but just couldn’t complete the pass. Starting fourth in the Drydene 400 ensures that Larson won’t be forced to play extreme catch-up as he was at Darlington. He won this very race back in 2019 and is in even better equipment for his Dover return this time around. Win number two of 2021 has been a long time coming for Larson, and this is a track that figures to play right into his skillset.
Other Drydene 400 NASCAR Betting Picks
Race Matchup: Kevin Harvick (+108) vs. Denny Hamlin
It’s hard to believe that both drivers in this head-to-head are yet to win a race in 2021. Denny Hamlin has been the more impressive driver this season, but in terms of average finish, Kevin Harvick is just two positions back. When it comes to the last ten races at Dover, Harvick has averaged a 9.8 finish compared to 11.4 for Hamlin. This matchup feels like a complete toss-up, which suggests great value in the plus-money NASCAR betting odds on Harvick.
Top 5 Finish: William Byron (+190)
While dabbling in the 16-1 NASCAR betting odds on William Byron to win the Drydene 400 outright is appealing, a top-5 finish at nearly 2-1 odds is a home run value play. During his streak of ten straight top-10 finishes, Byron has also accumulated four top-5’s. The No. 24 team is clicking on all cylinders right now. It’s impossible not to include him amongst this week’s NASCAR picks.
Best Finish in Group E: Chris Buescher (+265)
It was an impressive showing for Roush Fenway Racing last weekend as both Chris Buescher and Ryan Newman grabbed top-10 finishes. It marked the second consecutive top-10 for the No. 17 team and the continuation of a strong season overall. Buescher may not be at the level needed to win a race outright, but he has been out-running drivers in his group matchups more often than not. Look to ride the hot hand here against his RFR teammate and two struggling Stewart-Haas Racing drivers in group favorite Aric Almirola and Cole Custer.
Team of Race Winner: Hendrick Motorsports (+175)
A NASCAR betting play on Hendrick Motorsports to win the race does more than just support my race-winner pick of Kyle Larson. It also includes three other capable cars in Chase Elliott, William Byron and Alex Bowman. There isn’t a driver in this garage who has shown an inability to run well at Dover International Speedway. In case you hadn’t already noticed, I’m very high on the Hendrick camp this weekend.
To Finish on Lead Lap: Daniel Suarez (+190)
Daniel Suarez and the new Trackhouse Racing Team have cooled off a bit after a strong start to the season. While momentum isn’t on their side, Suarez’s history at Dover cannot be ignored. Prior to two horrendous results last year, he had never finished worse than 14th in six prior starts. Four of his eight races here have resulted in a top-10 finish with one top-3 thrown in for good measure. Expecting Suarez to run with the leaders on Sunday is probably asking too much. He doesn’t need to do that just to finish on the lead lap though. 2-1 odds make this a prop bet with sneaky good value.
