Of the ten college football conference title games taking place this weekend, the ACC Championship is the only one in which both teams come in off a loss. The matchup between the Clemson Tigers and the North Carolina Tar Heels is also likely the only Power 5 conference championship that will bear no impact on the four teams selected to participate in the College Football Playoff. Despite the Clemson vs North Carolina odds pegging them as the underdogs, the Tar Heels have attracted the majority of public college football betting picks ahead of Saturday night’s contest.
The following game preview provides the college football betting odds, trends and FEI Index ratings before sharing our official Clemson vs North Carolina prediction for the ACC Championship Game.
Clemson vs North Carolina Prediction | College Football Betting Picks
2022 ACC Championship Game
Clemson Tigers (10-2, 8-0 ACC) vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (9-3, 6-2 ACC)
Date: Saturday, December 3, 2022
Time: 8 PM EST
Venue: Bank of America Stadium — Charlotte, NC
Coverage: ABC
Coming into Saturday night’s ACC Championship Game, Clemson has yet to lose to a conference opponent all season. The Tigers’ only two losses to date have come against Notre Dame and South Carolina. However, both defeats have taken place in the last four weeks with the loss to the Gamecocks coming in last weekend’s regular-season finale. As such, the stock of Dabo Swinney’s team isn’t exactly at an all-time high. With a win, Clemson will secure its seventh conference title in the last eight years.
North Carolina also doesn’t come into the ACC Championship Game with much momentum. The Tar Heels dropped their final two regular season games to Georgia Tech and NC State. Oddly enough, it was the UNC offense that faltered after being one of the best units in the country all year. Once a Heisman Trophy contender, quarterback Drake Maye struggled mightily in the last two games. On the bright side for Mack Brown’s team, the Tar Heels’ defense did show signs of improvement late in the season.
Clemson vs North Carolina College Football Betting Picks and Odds
All college football betting odds for Clemson vs North Carolina can be found at Bovada Sportsbook.
Moneyline: CLEM: (-280) | UNC: (+230)
Point Spread: CLEM: -7.5 (-110) | UNC: +7.5 (-110)
Total: 63.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
College Football FEI Ratings
The following table shares the Fremeau Efficiency Index rankings for both teams involved in this ACC Championship Game matchup. The purpose of the FEI ratings is to represent the per-possession scoring advantage that a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. The rankings for offense and defense are out of 131 total FBS-level teams.
Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) ratings are from Football Outsiders
| Team | Overall FEI (Rk) | OFEI (Rk) | DFEI (Rk) |
| Clemson | .51 (21) | .31 (46) | .72 (16) |
| North Carolina | .14 (55) | 1.02 (16) | -.77 (116) |
Clemson vs North Carolina College Football Betting Trends
- Tigers are 14-1 ATS in their last 17 games played in the month of December.
- The total has gone OVER in six of the Tigers’ last seven games following an ATS loss.
- Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against ACC Conference opponents.
- Tar Heels are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.
- Each of the Tar Heels’ last four neutral site games has gone OVER the total.
- Tar Heels are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games.
- Betting favorites are 5-1 ATS in the last six Clemson vs North Carolina head-to-head matchups.
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Clemson vs North Carolina Prediction | College Football Betting Picks
Based on the latest College Football Playoff Rankings, it’s highly unlikely that Clemson can find its way into the national semifinals. As such, the top prize at stake in the ACC Championship will be a spot in the Orange Bowl. Clemson has been unable to win convincingly against quality competition all season. Despite this, the Clemson vs North Carolina odds still see the Tigers laying north of a touchdown.
When it comes to personnel in this matchup, Clemson seemingly has the advantage at every position except quarterback. DJ Uiagalelei has largely struggled this season. Even in games where the Tigers have been able to impose their will physically, costly mistakes and turnovers by Uiagalelei have kept opponents alive. Things got so bad in an October matchup against Syracuse that he was replaced down the stretch by backup Cade Klubnik.
On the flip side, redshirt freshman Drake Maye has exceeded expectations in his first year as the starter for North Carolina. The list of accomplishments and awards that Maye has racked up is certainly impressive. However, the Tar Heels’ offense stalled out a bit down the stretch of the regular season. While last week’s game did come against a top-tier defensive opponent in NC State, it is rather concerning that Clemson was able to dictate terms against that same team earlier in the year.
North Carolina will once again be hard-pressed to outscore what its defense allows. Among Power 5 programs, only Arizona and Colorado ranked below the Tar Heels in defensive efficiency. UNC was largely able to overcome this against lesser ACC Coastal Division foes. Clemson may not have the same national status as in recent years, but the Tigers are still vastly superior to their conference brethren.
CLEMSON COVERS will be our official college football betting Clemson vs North Carolina prediction for the ACC Championship Game.
For what it’s worth, the ESPN Matchup Predictor gives Clemson a 77.7% chance to win this game outright.
Bet: Clemson -7.5 (-110 at Bovada Sportsbook)
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