NFL fans and bettors alike are once again in for a treat thanks to COVID-19. The decision to move a high stakes AFC matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills to Monday sets up the third Monday night doubleheader of the season. It may be the early game but calling this battle between AFC contenders an appetizer is far from accurate. Both teams come in with 4-1 records and will be looking to gain a distinct advantage in the crowded conference race. The NFL odds and sharp NFL picks are siding with the road team in this one.
This betting preview contains the NFL odds, key betting trends, and best NFL picks for the Chiefs vs Bills Monday evening game.
NFL Odds, NFL Picks, and NFL Props | Chiefs vs Bills
Chiefs vs Bills Game Info
Kansas City Chiefs (4-1, 2-0 Away) vs. Buffalo Bills (4-1, 2-0 Home)
Date: Monday, Oct. 19, 2020
Time: 5 p.m. EST
Venue: Bills Stadium — Orchard Park, NY
Attendance: No in-person attendance allowed
Chiefs vs Bills NFL Odds
All odds courtesy of Bovada Sportsbook
Opening Lines: Chiefs -3.5; O/U 58
Moneyline: KC: (-240) | BUF: (+200)
Spread: KC: -5 (-110) | BUF +5 (-110)
Total: 57.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
Chiefs vs Bills Overview
A week ago, it looked like this matchup might be pitting 5-0 teams against one another with a spot atop the AFC standings at stake. But after the Chiefs fell to the Las Vegas Raiders and Bills were dominated by the Tennessee Titans in Week 5, both teams come in with a blemish on their records. Despite the losses last week, both Kansas City and Buffalo bring plenty to the table, and the NFL odds still project a close game.
The big news in the NFL this week was Le’Veon Bell being released by the New York Jets and ultimately signing on with the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs. Has there ever been a more classic example of the rich getting richer? Bell won’t be able to play this week due to the NFL’s COVID testing protocols, but the Kansas City offense just got all the more terrifying. The Bills will certainly have to bring a better defensive effort than they have in any game up to this point to slow down Patrick Mahomes and Co. Buffalo sorely missed corner Tre’Davious White in Tuesday’s game and got good news Friday when White was able to practice in full. The Bills need their top cover corner available if they hope to contain Tyreek Hill.
On the other side of the ball, both the Bills offense and Chiefs defense will be looking to bounce back after disappointing showings last week. After looking like an MVP candidate in the first four games, Josh Allen came back down to Earth against the Titans, tossing a pair of interceptions. It’s fair to wonder if the poor performance is part of why the NFL odds have moved against Buffalo. The Bills will look to get back on track, and the return of John Brown to the lineup should help the cause. If Buffalo can jump-start its running game, that would also pay dividends. The Chiefs rank second in adjusted defensive efficiency against the pass but are 28th against the run (Football Outsiders). The Bills meanwhile are 28th in rushing yards per game at just 93.8. It will be interesting to see what gives come Monday.
Chiefs vs Bills Betting Trends
- Chiefs 2020 Betting Trends: 3-2 ATS; 2-3 to the Over
- Bills 2020 Betting Trends: 3-2 ATS; 4-0-1 to the Over
- The Bills are 7-3 ATS in their last ten head-to-head matchups against the Chiefs, but only 1-3 in the last four.
- Road teams are 7-2 ATS in the last nine head-to-head matchups between the Chiefs and Bills.
- The Bills have had the under hit in nine of the last ten games in which they were an underdog.
Chiefs vs Bills Stats
- Kansas City has averaged 29.8 points per game (PPG) this season (Tied for No. 8 in the NFL)
- Kansas City has surrendered 22.0 PPG this season (No. 7 in the NFL)
- Buffalo has averaged 27.8 PPG this season (Tied for No. 11 in the NFL)
- Buffalo has surrendered 28.4 PPG this season (Tied for No. 21 in the NFL)
Monkey Knife Fight NFL Props
Monkey Knife Fight is a DFS site unlike DraftKings or FanDuel. Instead, the contests feature props to play, with varying multipliers for each contest. Unlike the aforementioned sites, you are only competing with yourself on MKF, and you do not need to worry about annoying salary caps.
Monkey Knife Fight has several great NFL props for the entire Week 6 slate. Here is one of my favorites for the Chiefs vs Bills game.
Given that I expect the Bills to be playing from behind in this game, that means ample opportunities for Josh Allen to pile up passign yards. Patrick Mahomes figures to have a great showing here, but I’ll side with Allen in this prop given the free 29.5 yards. Travis Kelce is a reception hog and continues to be the most-frequented weapon for Mahomes in the loaded Chiefs offense. Stefon Diggs will also have to contend for looks with John Brown this week as the latter makes his return from injury. I like Kelce to have at least 1 more catch than Diggs on Monday.
Predicting all three matchups correctly would win you 3.3x your entry.
Chiefs vs Bills NFL Picks and NFL Odds
This game is critical for both teams. Each is in need of a rebound performance after disappointing efforts their last time out, and the positional advantage that the winner will get in terms of AFC seeding down the road looms large. The NFL odds have taken the sharp money in favor of the Chiefs up to this point, evidenced in the small line move from 3.5 up to 5.
There’s nothing that makes me feel comfortable backing Buffalo in this spot. While the Chiefs will be the public side and figure to own a large advantage in ticket count, the Bills aren’t a contrarian underdog play worth making. The defense has shown no signs of being able to stop an offensive juggernaut of the Chiefs’ caliber. Defensively, I believe Steve Spagnuolo should be able to dial up several looks to throw Josh Allen off rhythm. If Buffalo fails to find its running game and control time of possession, it could get ugly fast.
Pick: Chiefs -5 (-110 at Bovada Sportsbook)