Through the first 10 games of the season, it has been hard to find a better rookie wide receiver in fantasy football than Brian Thomas Jr. Despite this, with the fantasy football trade deadline in your league coming up quickly, Brian Thomas Jr. fantasy owners should think about selling high on the rookie before it is too late.
The LSU alum has recorded 607 receiving yards on 37 catches. Along with those receiving yards, Thomas has also grabbed five touchdowns. He currently sits at 11th in the NFL in receiving yards and eighth in receiving touchdowns. Even if it is due to injuries, it’s pretty surprising to see Thomas outperform his college teammate Malik Nabers this season. In this article, I will break down why Brian Thomas Jr. fantasy football owners need to sell him, if you want to make a run at the fantasy football championship.
Brian Thomas Jr. is MUST-SELL Before Fantasy Football Trade Deadline
Trevor Lawrence Injury Concerns Hurt Thomas’ Value
Coming into Week 10, Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence was put on the injury report with an injured shoulder. In fact, it was reported that Lawrence is dealing with an AC joint sprain. While an AC joint injury is not incredibly taxing, the Jaguars do sport a 2-7 record. The Jaguars are not going to make the playoffs and, with the injury, I am not sure it makes sense to rush the Clemson alum back too fast. The Jaguars are invested heavily in Lawrence for their future, so to risk him in a lost season seems foolish.
This injury leaves Mac Jones at quarterback for the foreseeable future. Throughout his career, Jones hasn’t impressed too often. As is the case with any number-one receiver, when you go from starter to backup quarterback, your production is sure to suffer. In the tiny sample size that we have seen, Thomas recorded two catches for 12 yards. While I think we can see a little bit more out of Thomas moving forward, it is going to be hard to trust him in your starting lineup on any given week with Jones under center.
Jaguars Schedule Presents Tough Road for Thomas
As we head into the second half of the NFL season here, one should start looking at who your players have matchups against in Weeks 14-18, also known as fantasy football playoffs. In those weeks, the Jaguars take on the Tennessee Titans twice, the New York Jets, the Las Vegas Raiders and the Indianapolis Colts. Those four teams have all been very stingy against opposing wide receivers this season, ranking – Tennessee 3rd, New York 1st, Las Vegas 7th and Indianapolis 23rd.
While the Colts are obviously the outlier there, that game comes in Week 18, when most leagues are over. Given the concerns surrounding Lawrence and his injury, it is once again going to be tough to trust Thomas against any of those teams when it really matters in fantasy football.
For the full fantasy playoffs strength of schedule breakdown for every team, by position, you can get it here under “shop.”
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Thomas’ Lack of Volume Limits Expected Production
Through 10 weeks, Thomas has done most of his damage in short-yardage situations with Lawrence under center. In fact, Thomas has seen a lack of volume when it comes to air yards. Thomas currently ranks 88th in air yards in Weeks 7-10, per our Opportunity Index. That is below teammate Parker Washington and Seattle Seahawk Cody White.
Thomas is not running many deep routes, and when he does, he is not seeing many opportunities to make a play. That gets exacerbated with Jones under center. Mac Jones is not known for taking many shots deep and, in my estimation, will be willing to look more toward Travis Etienne out of the backfield and Evan Engram over the middle. On top of the limited air yards, Thomas is only seeing 4.3 looks per game through the four weeks. The lack of volume combined with the lack of air yards shows that Thomas is in the midst of a major regression, something that you don’t want as you are making a run to win a championship.
