This year’s late-season Saturday NFL action begins with a pair of AFC teams facing off high up in the Rocky Mountains. The surging Buffalo Bills will look to keep their momentum going as they take on a Denver Broncos team that many believe to be more talented than their record suggests. The NFL odds and expert NFL picks give the nod to the visitors for this game.
This betting preview contains the NFL odds, key betting trends, prop bets, and best NFL picks for Bills vs Broncos on Saturday afternoon.
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NFL Odds, NFL Picks, and NFL Props | Bills vs Broncos
Bills vs Broncos Game Info
Buffalo Bills (10-3, 4-2 Away) at Denver Broncos (5-8, 2-4 Home)
Date: Saturday, Dec. 19, 2020
Time: 4:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Empower Field at Mile High – Denver, CO
Coverage: NFL Network
Attendance: No fans will be allowed to attend.
Bills vs Broncos NFL Odds + NFL Picks
Opening Lines: Bills -5.5; O/U 48
Moneyline: BUF: (-270) | DEN: (+220)
Spread: BUF: -6 (-110) | DEN: +6 (-110)
Total: 50 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
Bills vs Broncos Overview
If there was any doubt that the Bills are for real, they squashed it last week with an impressive win and NFL picks cover over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Sunday Night Football spotlight. Now, Josh Allen and the high-powered Buffalo passing attack must regroup and be ready to battle not only a tough Broncos defense but also the chilly Denver temperatures. Stefon Diggs has been every bit the star receiver the Bills hoped they were acquiring in the offseason trade. Buffalo will need Diggs, Cole Beasley, and possibly even rookie Gabriel Davis to be on top of their games in this one against the Broncos’ top-10 adjusted pass defense.
Offensively, the Broncos are simply teeming with young talent that is just waiting to be unleashed. Whether Drew Lock is the answer at quarterback going forward or not, he will be under center for Saturday’s contest and will look to stay hot after last week’s four-touchdown performance. Expect Denver’s RB tandem of Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay to be leaned on heavily. The Broncos will likely want to keep the ball away from Buffalo’s explosive offense as NFL picks underdogs.
Bills vs Broncos Betting Trends
- Bills 2020 Betting Trends: 8-5 ATS; 8-4-1 to the Over
- Broncos 2020 Betting Trends: 8-5 ATS; 6-7 to the Over
- The Bills are 6-0 ATS in their last six head-to-head meetings against the Broncos (5-1 straight up over that span).
- The Under has hit in 4 of the Broncos’ six home games this season.
- The Under is 13-2 in the Broncos’ last 15 games against teams averaging 27 points per game or more.
Bills vs Broncos Stats
- Buffalo has averaged 27.6 points per game (PPG) this season (No. 9 in the NFL)
- Buffalo has surrendered 24.7 PPG this season (No. 15 in the NFL)
- Denver has averaged 19.8 PPG this season (No. 29 in the NFL)
- Denver has surrendered 26.7 PPG this season (No. 23 in the NFL)
Monkey Knife Fight NFL Props
Monkey Knife Fight is a DFS site unlike DraftKings or FanDuel. Instead, the contests feature props to play, with varying multipliers for each contest. Unlike the aforementioned sites, you are only competing with yourself when making NFL picks on MKF, and you do not need to worry about annoying salary caps.
Monkey Knife Fight has several great NFL props for the entire Week 15 slate. Here is a fun one that I like for the Bills vs Broncos game.
A little fun fact about Josh Allen’s season is that he has actually thrown for far more yards in road games than at home. Only once has Allen finished under the 275.5-yard threshold set this NFL props contest on the road. With that said, only one of those matchups came against a top-10 passing defense. The Broncos, who only allow 220.7 pass yards per game (207.0 in their last three games) should be able to keep Allen under the number.
Tim Patrick may provide some NFL picks and fantasy value thanks to his six receiving touchdowns on the season, but his yardage has been much less consistent. Patrick has only surpassed 50 yards in four games all season, and I’m not convinced a matchup with the Bills defense is one to bet on him having a big day.
Picking both yardage totals correctly would win you 3.5x your buy-in.
Bills vs Broncos NFL Picks and NFL Odds
The point spread for this game has moved in favor of the road favorite, rising a full point from the opening line of Bills -5.5. While the line did touch 7 briefly, sharp NFL picks quickly brought it back down to the current 6.5. The total has trended up as well, rising two points from the opening over/under line of 48 to an even 50.
While this certainly feels like a game that the Bills are capable of winning handily, many NFL picks experts were saying the same thing about the Broncos’ game at Kansas City two weeks ago. Denver held tough in that one, largely thanks to their defense. Fans may not be allowed to attend, but Mile High presents a distinct home field advantage regardless of crowd noise due to the elevation.
I’m not willing to bet against the freight train that is the Buffalo Bills, but I don’t see them running up the score at will against the NFL’s 13th ranked defense, per Football Outsiders’ adjusted efficiency metrics. With the total surging up two points from opening, now is the perfect time to buy back in the other direction.
Pick: Under 50 (-110 at Bovada Sportsbook)