If you are looking to have action this NFL Sunday from kickoff at 1 p.m. Eastern all the way until the clock reaches triple zeroes on Sunday Night Football, you have come to the right place! Here are my favorite NFL bets against the spread for Week 10.
Odds Courtesy of MyBookie Sportsbook
Buffalo Bills (+2.5) at Cleveland Browns
The Browns (2-6) burned many a bettor last week, losing outright on the road as field goal favorites against the Denver Broncos and first-time NFL starter Brandon Allen. Both the books and the betting market are suggesting a Cleveland bounce back at home this week against the Buffalo Bills (6-2). Now, I have been as anti-Bills as anyone this season. Just about every statistic out there suggests that their 6-2 record is flawed due to the easiest strength of schedule rating (-4.7) in the NFL to date, according to Team Rankings. In fact, that rating is a whole 1.2 lower than the next lowest team, the Dallas Cowboys. The Browns, meanwhile, have the second-highest strength of schedule rating (2.8) through the first nine weeks. All that is great, but when you take this matchup to the football field itself, a Cleveland cover is tough to envision, let alone a win outright.
The Bills defense continues to be their strength and will be in prime position to thrive against a struggling Browns offensive line, whose 23 sacks allowed is 12th most in the league. Baker Mayfield’s regression continued last week and the frustration is more than setting in with the pass catchers, particularly Odell Beckham Jr., who is capable of much more than the 39 receptions and one touchdown he has this season. Is Freddie Kitchens capable of holding the locker room together AND scheming up a successful offensive game plan? This week will go a long way towards answering that question.
Los Angeles Rams at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5)
The Rams will be traveling east across time zones for this matchup against the resurgent Steelers, winners of three straight. Admittedly, it hasn’t always been pretty for Pittsburgh on offense this season, as Mason Rudolph continues to find his footing under center. I like the Steelers in this spot catching 3.5 at home, largely due to the defense (ranked fifth overall by Football Outsiders Adjusted DVOA) against Jared Goff and a Rams offense that has regressed mightily in the first half of the season.
Through eight games, Goff has thrown seven interceptions and has an adjusted QBR of 43.3, ranking 25th among all NFL quarterbacks. The yardage and touchdowns have been there thanks to massive amounts of volume, but that reflects an underlying problem for the L.A. offense this season. The running game has not been there to complement the pass. How much of this is due to an aging offensive line or Todd Gurley’s knee can’t be quantified. But in order for Sean McVay to turn the offense around, a greater semblance of balance must be established.
Simply put, the Rams have not shown me enough this year to warrant laying 3.5 in this road matchup. The initial line of -4 has moved slightly in Pittsburgh’s direction. Pounce now while the key hook remains attached to a potential field goal differential.
6-Point Teaser
Baltimore Ravens (-10.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
For the first half of my Week 10 teaser, we will tease the Ravens down to -4.5 road favorites against the winless Bengals. Baltimore is clearly the better team, fueled by a Lamar Jackson-led offense that looks unstoppable and an opportunistic defense that benefited significantly from the return of corner Jimmy Smith last week. So why not just bet the 10.5-point spread? There are a couple things that give me pause. First, this has all the makings of a potential trap game for the Ravens. Fresh off a win over the previously unbeaten New England Patriots and with another critical matchup against the AFC South-leading Houston Texans next week, a lack of focus is possible. Second, Cincinnati will have rookie QB Ryan Finley making his first NFL start. With the anonymity factor surrounding Finley, laying six points fewer with Baltimore is a much safer option.
Minnesota Vikings (+3) at Dallas Cowboys
For the second half of our teaser, we will take the Vikings catching three on the road against the Cowboys and tease it up to a +9 spread. While it is plausible to argue for the Vikings as a live dog, a little extra insurance on the point spread is a much safer option for betting purposes. First and foremost, Minnesota will likely be without top wideout Adam Thielen after he re-aggravated a hamstring injury last week. This means Kirk Cousins will have to rely on alternative weapons. While Stefon Diggs, Kyle Rudolph, Irv Smith Jr. and Olabisi Johnson are all more than capable, the concerns over Cousins’ ability to perform both in primetime and against teams with better than .500 records is starting to become more than just a narrative. If all goes well, Minnesota will trade offensive blows with Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, and the Cowboys the whole way. If Cousins stumbles against a formidable Dallas defense, you’ll be grateful to have teased up to a spread greater than a one score margin.
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