Only four games remain in the NBA regular season. While all 10 postseason and Play-In Tournament spots in each conference have been accounted for, there are still plenty of seeding battles yet to be decided. Thursday evening offers up a seven-game slate to peruse for worthwhile NBA betting picks. The schedule is headlined by a national TV matchup between the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks that features massive seeding implications atop the Eastern Conference. The following article offers three of the best NBA player prop bets for the April 7th slate.
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Best NBA Betting Player Props for Tonight, 4/7
All NBA betting player props odds are taken from BetOnline Sportsbook
Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 4.5 Assists (-130)
Our first featured NBA player props prediction for this evening stems from the aforementioned clash between the Celtics and Bucks. Milwaukee superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo is arguably the best all-around player in the sport today. While he likely won’t win the MVP Award this year, this by no means understates the season he has had. Down the stretch in particular is where “The Greek Freak” has really come on.
Antetokounmpo has averaged 29.9 points and 11.6 rebounds over the course of the full season. He had a streak of seven straight games played with a double-double snapped in the Bucks’ most recent contest. Of course, the end of the double-double streak was largely due to the fact that Antetokounmpo only played 24 minutes on Tuesday. Milwaukee blew out the Chicago Bulls to clinch the Central Division crown. While Antetokounmpo actually came up well short of his scoring and rebounding averages, he exceeded his assists average with seven in Tuesday’s game.
On the season, the Freak has totaled a healthy 5.8 dimes per contest. This mark is over one full assist more than tonight’s NBA betting line of 4.5. From a mathematical standpoint, the value is clearly on the over for this NBA picks prediction. Furthermore, one could argue that the magnitude of the game will bring out Antetokounmpo’s best as well. While the Celtics are the top defensive team in the NBA in terms of efficiency, the likelihood that Boston keys in on Antetokounmpo could lead to him finding open teammates more frequently.
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Jarred Vanderbilt Over 7.5 Rebounds (+102)
It really looked like the Minnesota Timberwolves forgot they had a game on Tuesday night when they were embarrassed on their home floor by Washington. All five starters had +/- differentials of -10 or worse. Jarred Vanderbilt actually finished with the best of the lot, however, he only played 20 minutes total in the game. Despite seeing over five minutes fewer than what he has averaged on the season, Vanderbilt still managed to corral a half-dozen rebounds. On the season, he has contributed 8.5 boards per game. This average sits one full rebound above Thursday’s NBA player props line of 7.5.
Interestingly enough, bettors can obtain a plus-money price on Vanderbilt to exceed the NBA betting picks total in tonight’s game. Perhaps part of the reason for this prop being juiced to the under is the fact that Vanderbilt has trended solely in that direction of late. The 23-year-old has finished at or below the seven-rebound mark in each of the last six games. While he has proven repeatedly that he can put up big numbers on the glass in limited minutes, it’s also worth noting that his playing time has seen a frustrating degree of fluctuation recently.
Assuming Vanderbilt sees at least his average of 25 minutes in tonight’s game, it’s hard to pass up plus-money odds for him to go over the NBA picks line. The Wolves take on a San Antonio Spurs team that only ranks 20th in the league in Rebound Rate this season. In addition, fellow big man Jaden McDaniels is tabbed as questionable for tonight’s game with an ankle injury. If he sits, one has to feel even more confident that Vanderbilt will see a healthy amount of playing time.
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Jonas Valanciunas Under 12.5 Rebounds (-130)
After missing Tuesday’s game due to right ankle soreness, New Orleans Pelicans center Jonas Valanciunas confirmed that he will play this evening. He carries no injury designation into tonight’s contest against the tank that is the Portland Trail Blazers. While a matchup with the Blazers may seem like a major positive for any and all NBA player props on the surface, there is actually good reason to consider betting under 12.5 rebounds for Valanciunas tonight.
This handicap can start with the simple fact that “J-Val” has averaged nearly one full rebound less (11.6) than tonight’s NBA betting total this season. Over his last nine games played, Valanciunas finished with double-digit boards on eight occasions. The only time he failed to do so was last weekend when he exited early with the injury and only played 22 minutes. However, despite consistently rebounding in double figures, the 29-year-old has only exceeded the NBA player props line of 12.5 boards twice over that same span.
The Blazers offer very little from both a statistical and personnel standpoint. In all honesty, center Drew Eubanks has been one of Portland’s best players down the stretch. He managed to hold Valanciunas to 11 rebounds when the two teams played just last week. It’s hard to feel confident in Valanciunas being a full two rebounds better this evening. In the event of a blowout or further trouble with the ankle, he could a reduction in playing time could also impact this NBA picks result.
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