Alvin Kamara Fantasy Football Outlook and Stats: Buy or Sell His ADP?

There are and will continue to be a lot of questions in the Big Easy this offseason, after the retirement of Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees. Thanks to the versatility of running back Alvin Kamara however, the quarterback stepping in will have a much easier time. Last season, Alvin Kamara was the #1 running back last season and the #4 player overall in PPR leagues, and it’s easy to see why. Let’s discuss Alvin Kamara’s fantasy football outlook for 2021, including his stats from 2020 and giving our buy or sell decision based on his current average draft position (ADP).

Alvin Kamara Fantasy Football Outlook 2021

2020 Fantasy Stats

Games Played: 15
Fantasy Points (PPR): 410.9
Fantasy Rank: RB1
Boom%: 46.7%
Starter%: 86.7%
Bust%: 6.7%

Alvin Kamara 2021 Outlook

Most of the time, when teams have either a new quarterback or a quarterback in a new system, the biggest winners are the running backs and tight ends. With the retirement of Drew Brees, that is exactly what the Saints have at their quarterback position. As not only the safe, but also the most explosive option in the offense, it’s not a stretch to think that Kamara could find himself in an even larger role in 2021. A more explosive playmaker at the quarterback position opens up the check-downs and running lanes for Kamara. 

We’ve already seen how reliable Kamara was with a vanilla offense last year, with his production producing starter numbers 87% of the time. With defenses having to play more honest, his starter percentage and boom percentage should both increase. The one thing that could possibly trip up Kamara’s production however is strength of schedule.

This season, the Saints will have the seventh-toughest strength of schedule for running backs. While that will likely stop the amount of times he’s able to put up multiple touchdowns and over 200+ all purpose yards, Kamara is much harder to stop than other running backs. Even with a tough schedule, he should see similar production in 2021.

When it comes to durability, Kamara has been solid outside of the 2019 season. Last season, he only missed one game, which was due to rest for the playoffs in Week 17. Outside of his injury-riddled 2019 season, Kamara has never missed a game. Even with the concussion, he was cleared and able to suit up for their next game. At the end of the day, Kamara to this point has been as durable as they come at his position.

Alvin Kamara Fantasy Football ADP | Buy or Sell?

The ADP of Alvin Kamara was taken from Fantasy Football Calculator on June 26th and sees Kamara being taken third overall. At this position, Kamara is certainly a buy. Although the NFL is extremely unpredictable from year to year, Kamara can give boom production every week. He has been one of the most durable running backs and will be relied on heavily yet again.

As a result, Alvin Kamara should be a safe buy, even at a position as high as the third pick.