FlurrySports gives predictions and NASCAR betting odds for the Würth 400 at Texas Motor Speedway.
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Talladega has come and gone, and a greater semblance of normalcy returns to the NASCAR Cup Series this weekend. But before we get into it — shoutout to every loyal reader who cashed a 25-1 outright winner ticket on Carson Hocevar with us last week. That one felt good.
Now, let’s get down to business. The Würth 400 at Texas Motor Speedway is the third race on a 1.5-mile intermediate oval of the 2026 season and the second in the last three weeks. Texas was repaved in 2017 and carries one of the highest grip levels of any track on the circuit, which means car setup and aerodynamic speed tend to be strong indicators of who will contend here.
Below, we break down the NASCAR betting odds to win the Würth 400 — including our picks from favorites to long shots worth a closer look.
Würth 400 NASCAR Race at Texas Motor Speedway
Würth 400
Date: Sunday, May 3, 2026
Start Time: 3:30 p.m. EST
Coverage: FS1
Distance: 400 miles (267 laps)
Stages: Three (80 laps, 85 laps, 102 laps)
Pole Sitter: TBD
Defending Champion: Joey Logano
Würth 400 NASCAR Betting Odds to Win
It should come as a shocker to no one that a pair of Toyota drivers top the odds board for the Würth 400. Denny Hamlin and Tyler Reddick are co-favorites at 5-1, and rightfully so — that tandem has combined to win six of ten races this year and are the only two winners on intermediate ovals to date.
Kyle Larson sits just behind them at +550. He won at Texas in 2021 and finished fourth here last year, though we’re now nearly a full calendar year removed from his last Cup Series victory.
Defending race winner Joey Logano checks in at 11-1, with teammate Ryan Blaney right ahead of him at 9-1. Both have impressive Texas history going back several years, and on the surface they might look like strong options this week.
Don’t buy it. Penske has been downright awful at both 1.5-mile ovals this season. Anyone leaning on their Texas history without accounting for current form is reading previous years’ box scores and calling it analysis.
The table below lists the latest pre-qualifying odds for the full field.
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Würth 400 betting odds are taken from BetUS Sportsbook.
| Driver | Odds to Win | Würth 400 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin | +500 | Kyle Busch | +7000 |
| Tyler Reddick | +500 | Josh Berry | +7000 |
| Kyle Larson | +550 | Corey Heim | +9000 |
| Ryan Blaney | +900 | Austin Dillon | +11000 |
| William Byron | +980 | Noah Gragson | +13000 |
| Christopher Bell | +1000 | Michael McDowell | +13000 |
| Joey Logano | +1100 | Erik Jones | +13000 |
| Chase Elliott | +1100 | AJ Allmendinger | +15000 |
| Chase Briscoe | +1400 | Riley Herbst | +17000 |
| Carson Hocevar | +1600 | John Hunter Nemechek | +17000 |
| Ty Gibbs | +1700 | Connor Zilisch | +17000 |
| Bubba Wallace | +2000 | Todd Gilliland | +20000 |
| Chris Buescher | +2100 | Shane van Gisbergen | +20000 |
| Brad Keselowski | +3000 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | +20000 |
| Ross Chastain | +3500 | Zane Smith | +20000 |
| Daniel Suarez | +5000 | Ty Dillon | +40000 |
| Austin Cindric | +5000 | Cole Custer | +40000 |
| Ryan Preece | +5400 | Cody Ware | +50000 |
| Alex Bowman | +6500 | Chad Finchum | +50000 |
NASCAR Betting Picks and Predictions: Who Will Win the Würth 400 at Texas Motor Speedway?
Favorite: Tyler Reddick (+500)
At this point, how can you not include Tyler Reddick on a NASCAR betting card? With five wins through the first ten races of 2026 — including at Kansas two weeks ago — he has firmly entered “bet against at your own risk” territory.
Toyota has been the class of the field in every non-superspeedway race this season, and Reddick has been the class of the Toyotas. He won the most recent intermediate oval at Kansas and started from the pole, which bodes well for his raw speed heading into Texas where tire falloff is significantly reduced.
What makes him even more compelling here is that his Texas track record is actually superior to Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson — the two drivers sharing the top of the board with him. Across seven Cup Series starts at Texas, Reddick owns an average finish of 11.0 and a 2022 outright win.
At 5-1 odds, you could argue the market still hasn’t fully caught up to how good he has been in 2026.
Value Pick: Chase Elliott (+1100)
Hendrick Motorsports has been quiet by their standards this season, but don’t mistake that for a lack of speed at tracks like this one. Three HMS Chevrolets finished inside the top 10 at both Las Vegas and Kansas, and the organization had the second-place car in both races.
Chase Elliott was that runner-up finisher at Las Vegas. He’s the only Hendrick driver to reach victory lane so far in 2026, and his fourth-place standing in points reflects that he has been the most consistent of the group. His Texas record has had its ups and downs, but he did win this race outright in 2024 — and he’s currently priced longer than both Larson and William Byron, neither of whom have matched his results this year.
The intermediate oval speed is real, the Texas win is on the books, and the price is right. Elliott is one of the cleaner value plays on the board this week.
Long Shot Hopeful: Brad Keselowski (+3000)
With Team Penske nowhere to be found at the first two intermediate ovals this season, it has been RFK Racing carrying the Ford banner. The team combined for finishes of sixth, tenth, and eleventh at both Las Vegas and Kansas — quietly one of the more consistent stretches any organization has put together at this track type in 2026.
Keselowski has been at the center of it. He was tenth in Las Vegas and sixth at Kansas, and his fingerprints as a driver-owner continue to show up in RFK’s trajectory as an organization.
Texas history backs him up too. He’s never won outright here, but Keselowski put together eight consecutive top-10 finishes at Texas spanning his final years at Penske — a streak that includes a runner-up in 2024 and four top-10s in five races with RFK specifically. Last year was the outlier.
RFK’s intermediate form, Keselowski’s track record, and a 30-1 price make this one of the more well-rounded long shot cases you’ll find on the board this week.
