FlurrySports gives predictions and NASCAR betting odds for the Straight Talk Wireless 500 at Phoenix Raceway.
Despite three races being in the books, this weekend marks the first time this year that the NASCAR Cup Series will run an oval track without the draft being a factor. In fact, the one-mile oval in the desert known as Phoenix Raceway is practically the polar-opposite of a drafting track. With a shorter distance and limited backing throughout, this will be the first true measure of car setup for the teams and drivers this season.
Of course, the big headline coming into the weekend is whether or not Tyler Reddick can continue his historic start to the season. He has already done what no driver has before by winning three straight races to begin the season. Will he extend this remarkable start on Sunday? Based on where he sits in the NASCAR betting odds, he has to be considered a contender. However, he is notably not the favorite.
Below, we break down the NASCAR betting odds to win the Straight Talk Wireless 500, including our top picks and predictions from favorites to long shots with a chance.
Straight Talk Wireless 500 NASCAR Race at Phoenix Raceway
Straight Talk Wireless 500
Date: Sunday, March 8, 2026
Start Time: 3:30 p.m. EST
Coverage: FS1
Distance: 312 miles (312 laps)
Stages: Three (60 laps, 125 laps, 127 laps)
Pole Sitter: TBD
Defending Champion: Christopher Bell
Straight Talk Wireless 500 NASCAR Betting Odds to Win
Contrary to the first three tracks that NASCAR has run this year, Phoenix Raceway is largely dominated by the powerhouse race teams. Joe Gibbs Racing (2), Team Penske (2) and Hendrick Motorsports (1) have accounted for five wins in the last six Cup Series races held at Phoenix. With this being the first oval race of 2026 that does not have the draft in play, the NASCAR betting odds board looks very different in favor of these top-tier teams.
On the heels of winning the most recent race here last fall, Ryan Blaney checks in as the pre-qualifying favorite this week. Blaney’s betting status reflects remarkable consistency at Phoenix that extends back well beyond his recent victory. In the last nine races here, the No. 12 Ford Mustang has been among the top-5 finishers a whopping eight times! In his last seven starts, Blaney has placed top-5 six times with the outright win and four additional runner-up finishes.
Among the drivers situated just behind Blaney in the betting odds is Christopher Bell, the outright winner in each of the last two spring races held at Phoenix. He figures to be tough to beat following a third-place run last week. Meanwhile, Tyler Reddick is the sixth choice in the odds at 11-1 as he looks to do the unthinkable and win a fourth consecutive race to begin the 2026 season.
The table below lists the latest pre-qualifying odds for the full field heading into the weekend. Sign up through our BetUS Sportsbook promo link to get a welcome bonus, up to $3,625!
Straight Talk Wireless 500 outright betting odds are taken from BetUS Sportsbook.
| Driver | Odds to Win | Straight Talk Wireless 500 | 2026 |
| Ryan Blaney | +500 | Ty Gibbs | +6000 |
| Denny Hamlin | +600 | Austin Dillon | +6000 |
| Kyle Larson | +650 | Ryan Preece | +6500 |
| Christopher Bell | +650 | Michael McDowell | +10000 |
| William Byron | +750 | Austin Hill | +10000 |
| Tyler Reddick | +1100 | Noah Gragson | +15000 |
| Joey Logano | +1200 | Daniel Suarez | +15000 |
| Chase Elliott | +1600 | Erik Jones | +17500 |
| Chase Briscoe | +1800 | Shane Van Gisbergen | +17500 |
| Ross Chastain | +2200 | Todd Gilliland | +20000 |
| Chris Buescher | +2800 | Zane Smith | +20000 |
| Josh Berry | +2800 | AJ Allmendinger | +25000 |
| Carson Hocevar | +3000 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | +25000 |
| Brad Keselowski | +3300 | John Hunter Nemechek | +30000 |
| Connor Zilisch | +4000 | Ty Dillon | +40000 |
| Kyle Busch | +4000 | Riley Herbst | +40000 |
| Bubba Wallace | +4000 | Cole Custer | +40000 |
| Austin Cindric | +4500 | Cody Ware | +50000 |
NASCAR Betting Picks and Predictions: Who Will Win the Straight Talk Wireless 500 at Phoenix Raceway?
Favorite: Christopher Bell (+650)
When it comes to the price points for the drivers considered to be top-echelon contenders this weekend, Christopher Bell offers plenty of appeal at +650. As mentioned previously, he has won this very spring race at Phoenix in each of the last two years. Three of his last four starts here have resulted in top-5 finishes and he has also placed top-10 in seven of the last ten races. Last fall saw him just miss adding an eighth such finish with an 11th-place showing.
Another statistic that is great to consider is the average driver rating. This helps factor in for a driver having a finish in a race that was not necessarily indicative of their overall performance. With a sample window of the last six Cup Series races held at Phoenix, Bell’s average rating of 110.8 is second among active drivers only to William Byron. He has led 298 laps over that same span.
The Joe Gibbs Toyotas have had a knack for running very well here, especially in the spring. Four of the last seven spring winners have come from the JGR camp. Taking all factors into consideration, Bell is the driver from the NASCAR betting favorites camp I prefer, given the higher return being offered at +650 odds.
Value Pick: Joey Logano (+1200)
Any intelligent NASCAR betting portfolio has to include some money on the Team Penske camp to win outright this weekend. There’s a whole lot of hype surrounding Blaney in the odds, but his Penske teammate, Joey Logano, is being a bit overlooked. A 12-1 price point is respectable enough, but it’s also a great number to jump on for a driver with proven success at Phoenix Raceway.
Logano ranks fourth among active drivers in average finish (10.3) in the last ten Cup Series races held here. Two of those races saw the No. 22 Ford reach victory lane, winning the 2022 and 2024 NASCAR Championships in the process. In total, he has four career outright victories here. Logano’s current odds offer more than double the return compared to Blaney. His finishes may not be as consistent as his teammate, but his track record speaks for itself.
Long Shot Hopeful: Josh Berry (+2800)
Sunday will mark Josh Berry’s sixth NASCAR Cup Series start at Phoenix and his third behind the wheel of the Wood Brothers’ No. 21 Ford. Last year’s runs here were quite successful, with Berry finishing fourth in the spring and seventh in the fall. An additional top-10 as a part-time Cup Series driver previously offers further proof that he knows how to get around this one-mile oval.
It’s also worth a reminder that the Wood Brothers are closely aligned with Team Penske when it comes to car setup and strategy. Berry has all of the tools to run well once again and should prove that last year’s results were no fluke. His NASCAR betting odds may tab him as a long shot at 28-1, but he is a long shot who could legitimately win this weekend’s race.
