FlurrySports gives the best Underdog Fantasy NFL DFS picks for the Patriots vs Broncos NFL Playoffs AFC Championship game, including Drake Maye.
In the AFC Championship, we get an excellent matchup between the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos. While both of these teams won their previous matchup, Denver will be without quarterback Bo Nix here. Do the Broncos have enough power without Nix to win? Or, will New England continue its major turnaround and keep their season alive? The dynamics in this game are quite interesting, making it a fun one for NFL DFS picks.
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Underdog Fantasy NFL DFS Picks: Patriots vs Broncos
Jarrett Stidham HIGHER 15.5 Rushing Yards
With Bo Nix’s ankle snapping last week at the end of the game against the Bills, Jarrett Stidham is set to start this week for the Broncos. It is certainly not an ideal situation for Denver, as Nix was playing high-level football before going down. Now, Stidham takes over against one of the best defenses in the NFL this season. New England has been solid this season all around but has been especially stingy against the pass. With Christian Gonzalez healthy, Stidham and the Broncos are going to struggle taking downfield shots.
That’s where this entry comes into play. As is always the case with inexperienced quarterbacks, when the first read of the passing game breaks down, they often panic. When they panic, that leads to either interceptions being thrown or the quarterback tucking the ball and running. Given New England’s stinginess and the importance of winning this game, Sean Payton is telling Stidham to run, instead of putting the ball in harm’s way. Stidham will run when given the opportunity, too, as in 2022, when he started two games for the Raiders, he totaled 84 rushing yards.
Rhamondre Stevenson HIGHER 2.5 Receptions
It has become very clear that in the NFL Playoffs, Mike Vrabel and Josh McDaniels have elected to use Rhamondre Stevenson as their go-to running back, giving him a ton of both rushing and receiving work. Even though Denver’s pass defense has been vaunted as the strength of its defense, it has actually been its run defense that has dominated. That won’t deter Vrabel much, as we know that he does not care if he has to win ugly, thus propelling Stevenson into a featured role in this game.
With his high usage as of late, I am expecting Stevenson to be on the field for the majority of the game. Last week against Houston, Stevenson saw the field on 62% of New England’s offensive snaps. With him being on the field for a majority of the game, he has been used a lot in the receiving game. In both playoff games this year, Stevenson has gone higher than 2.5 receptions and has gone higher in three out of his last four games. Denver does have a strong pass rush, so when they get to Drake Maye, Stevenson will be used in the dump-off game, making this one of our favorite Underdog Fantasy NFL DFS picks.
Drake Maye HIGHER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
With the finalists of the NFL MVP award revealed, it appears that it is a two-man race between Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford. While playoffs aren’t taken into consideration, this is the game where Maye proves that he is the MVP this season. Last week against Houston’s incredible defense, Maye finished the game with three passing touchdowns. He will have the chance to do so again this week, as Denver’s pass defense has not been nearly as good in the playoffs as it was in the regular season.
Last week’s game also marked the 12th time that Maye went higher than 1.5 passing touchdowns. In that matchup, Josh Allen finished the game against Denver with three touchdown passes, while in Week 16, they gave up three touchdown passes to Trevor Lawrence, each of the last two quarterbacks they played who were in the playoffs. With Hunter Henry, Stefon Diggs, Kayshon Boutte, Kyle Williams and the duo of running backs, Maye has more than enough weapons to attack this Broncos defense and throw for two or more touchdown passes.
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