Saturday’s Illinois vs Purdue betting picks, college basketball odds and prediction for this Big Ten basketball matchup.
The Illinois Fighting Illini are taking on the Purdue Boilermakers at Mackey Arena on Saturday in what will be a huge game in the race for the Big Ten basketball regular season title. Let’s take you through the top college basketball betting picks, odds, betting trends and Haslametrics, then give our Illinois vs Purdue prediction for the game tonight.
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Illinois vs Purdue Prediction | Big Ten Basketball
No. 11 Illinois Fighting Illini (16-3, 7-1 Big Ten) vs. No. 4 Purdue Boilermakers (17-2, 7-1 Big Ten)
Date: Saturday, January 24, 2026
Time: 3:00 PM EST
Venue: Mackey Arena — West Lafayette, IN
Coverage: FOX
Illinois vs Purdue College Basketball Betting Picks and Odds
All college basketball betting odds for Illinois vs Purdue can be found at BetUS Sportsbook.
Moneyline: ILL: (+162) | PUR: (-196)
Point Spread: ILL: +4.5 (-110) | PUR: -4.5 (-110)
Total: 150.5 — Over: (-112) | Under: (-110)
Haslametrics Rankings
Haslametrics Rankings are from Haslametrics.com
| Team | Rank | Pace | Offensive Eff | Defensive Eff | Momentum |
| Illinois | 7 | 65.24 (279th) | 130.72 (3rd) | 97.04 (18th) | -2.03 (277th) |
| Purdue | 6 | 64.82 (305th) | 131.31 (1st) | 97.32 (21st) | -4.35 (350th) |
According to Haslametrics’ All-Play Estimates and automated game preview, the Purdue Boilermakers are projected to eke past the Illinois Fighting Illini, 76-72.
Illinois vs Purdue College Basketball Betting Trends
- Illinois is 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last five games.
- The OVER is 3-2 in Illinois’ last five games.
- Purdue is 0-5 ATS over their last five games.
- The OVER is 7-6 for Purdue in their last 13 home games.
Illinois Basketball Preview | College Basketball Betting Picks
Illinois challenged themselves this year with an incredibly tough schedule and so far, it’s yielded mixed results. Don’t get me wrong, this team is very good, but their play against ranked teams has been inconsistent at times. The Fighting Illini ran out of gas in Chicago against #17 Alabama and lost handily at home to #2 UConn. They quickly rallied to a double-digit win over then #13 Tennessee before losing a nail-biter to #7 Nebraska. For as strong as their schedule was to start the year, this matchup is just one of four ranked matchups on the horizon for Illinois in their last 15 games.
Offensively, there are few teams as deep as Illinois scoring-wise. They have five players averaging over 10 points per game, but often utilize a bench that only sees three players averaging many minutes off the bench. They shoot well from the free throw line (79.2%) but could be better from three-point range (35.2%). Illinois’ biggest strength is on the glass, with the Fighting Illini averaging over 41 rebounds per game, which ranks 13th in the country. As a result, they are a team that forces their opponents to operate efficiently on offense as they limit your opportunities for second-chance points.
While Illinois doesn’t do a great job on the defensive end in terms of forcing turnovers, they are one of the best teams at taking care of the ball themselves. They are tied for first in the nation in turnovers per game with just over eight. Their efficiency, ability to take care of the ball and their scoring depth gives them the perfect formula to knock off a team like Purdue. The question, though, is whether they can do it in a raucous Mackey Arena that is one of the toughest places to play in the country.
Purdue Basketball Preview | College Basketball Betting Picks
Up until recently, the Purdue Boilermakers looked like the best team in the country. The Boilermakers flew out of the gates to a 16-1 record with notable wins over #12 Texas Tech and #17 Alabama on the road. However, over the last two games, they have looked incredibly lackluster and some questions are starting to be asked about whether their record is the product of their ability or their schedule. While they do have some solid wins as previously mentioned, those account for just two of three games (out of the 19 they’ve played) against teams currently ranked. Their only other ranked opponent was #9 Iowa State who trounced Purdue by 23 at Mackey Arena.
Purdue went on a brief trip to California that saw them match up against unranked USC and UCLA. In those two games, they beat USC by just five points thanks to a late 11-4 run to end the game before losing to UCLA in a game that saw them blow a six-point lead with under two minutes to play. For as good as they have looked at times offensively, Purdue hasn’t scored 80 points in three straight games now and hasn’t won by double digits since a win over unranked Wisconsin three weeks ago.
It would be dumb to act like Purdue isn’t any good, but they have been slumping offensively lately. Their slumping has come thanks to poor play from their second and third-highest scorers, Fletcher Loyer and Trey Kaufman-Renn. The pair averages over 25 points per game on the season, but have combined for just 27 points over the last two games. Simply put, no team can survive when two of their top scorers are slumping, and if Loyer and Kaufman-Renn can’t get it figured out soon, Purdue will continue to slog their way through the Big Ten schedule.
Illinois vs Purdue Prediction | College Basketball Betting Picks
This is an incredibly tough game to predict, but the one certainty is that this will be one of the best games of the regular season this year. Both teams are incredibly efficient on both sides of the ball and they are very well coached. Purdue has a massive advantage with this game at home, but that means nothing if Loyer and Kaufman-Renn can’t get their act together.
Part of me is torn because Mackey Arena provides such an advantage for Purdue. After a tough west coast road trip, the fans and players will all be amped and ready to go. With a few days off, I expect this to be a big game for either Loyer or Kaufman-Renn. As much as I’d like to pick Illinois to win, they have struggled against ranked teams at times this year and their inability to turn teams over will be problematic in what should be a nail biter. For that reason, I’ll give the Purdue Boilermakers the slight edge to cover a close spread as Matt Painter led teams rarely slump for very long.
Our Illinois vs Purdue college basketball betting prediction tonight will be PURDUE -4.5 at BetUS. Sign up through our link to get a welcome bonus of up to $3,625 tonight!
For what it’s worth, the ESPN Matchup Predictor gives Purdue an 64.2% chance to win.
Top-25 College Basketball Games Today
Here are the ranked top-25 college basketball games today!
- Wake Forest vs (5) Duke
- (7) Nebraska vs Minnesota
- Maryland vs (10) Michigan State
- (22) North Carolina vs (14) Virginia
- (15) Vanderbilt vs Mississippi State
- Villanova vs (2) UConn
- West Virginia vs (1) Arizona
- (6) Houston vs (12) Texas Tech
- Virginia Tech vs (23) Louisville
- (9) Iowa State vs Oklahoma State
- Auburn vs (16) Florida
- LSU vs (20) Arkansas
- Utah vs (13) BYU
- San Francisco vs (8) Gonzaga
- (19) Kansas vs Kansas State
- Tennessee vs (17) Alabama
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