2021 NBA Draft Lottery Projections and Outlook

The 2020-21 NBA regular season is set to conclude this weekend. With just five days of games remaining, much of the attention is centered around the various standings battles for NBA Play-In Tournament and postseason seeding. Perhaps one overlooked component of the season’s final week is the NBA Draft Lottery. Although it was designed with the main goal of preventing teams from tanking, at this point, the bottom-feeders in the standings are already aware that they won’t be qualifying for the NBA’s expanded playoff format. If there was ever a week to try and lose on purpose, this one would arguably be it!

The following article provides an updated projection of the 2021 NBA Draft Lottery odds based on the current league standings. 

2021 NBA Draft Lottery Projections

Refer to the table below for the updated NBA Draft Lottery odds for the 14 teams who currently sit outside of the top eight in their respective conference standings. Included in the table are each team’s current odds to land the top overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft as well as what their average draft pick would be based on current lottery standing. 

Team	% Odds to Land Top Pick	Average Pick Based on Lottery Seed
Houston Rockets	14.0	3.7
Detroit Pistons	14.0	3.9
Oklahoma City Thunder	14.0	4.1
Cleveland Cavaliers	11.5	4.6
Orlando Magic	11.5	4.8
Minnesota Timberwolves	9.0	5.5
Toronto Raptors	7.5	6.2
Chicago Bulls	6.0	7.0
New Orleans Pelicans	3.8	8.2
Sacramento Kings	3.7	9.0
Washington Wizards	2.0	10.3
Indiana Pacers	1.5	11.4
San Antonio Spurs	1.0	12.5
Memphis Grizzlies	0.5	13.7

The Race for Number 1

The NBA Draft Lottery system grants each of the top-3 lottery seeds an equal shot at the top draft pick. It may be the final week of the regular season, but only one of the top-3 NBA Lottery seeds is accounted for thus far. Find additional commentary and remaining games for all six teams who still have a mathematical shot at finishing in the lottery’s top-3 below.

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🏀 Check out our detailed overview and breakdown of the NBA Draft Lottery odds, including an explanation of how the new play-in tournament could impact the 2021 lottery!

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Houston Rockets 

Current Record: 16-53
Lottery Status: Clinched top-3 seed
Remaining Games: at LAL; vs LAC; at ATL

Theoretically, the Rockets are free to finish up the season with three wins if they so desire. Houston has already clinched the worst record in the NBA and will thereby have maximum odds at landing the number one overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft Lottery. Houston is in a full-scale rebuild and culture shift after trading away long-time franchise star James Harden earlier this season. The cupboard is pretty empty and the Rockets would surely welcome the top draft pick.

Detroit Pistons

Current Record: 20-50
Lottery Status: 1.5-game lead for top-3 seed
Remaining Games: vs DEN; vs MIA

The Pistons took a big step towards clinching a top-3 seed in the NBA Draft Lottery by losing to the Minnesota Timberwolves on Tuesday night. Following that defeat, Detroit is now exactly 30 games below .500 on the season and 1.5 games to the good for locking up maximum odds to land the top draft pick. The Pistons have seemingly been hovering around the middle of the pack in the Eastern Conference for years. Perhaps Motor City will finally land a franchise centerpiece in the 2021 draft.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Current Record: 21-49
Lottery Status: 0.5-game lead for top-3 seed
Remaining Games: vs UTA; vs LAC

The only team with a longer losing streak in the NBA than the Thunder is the Cleveland Cavaliers. As it stands now, these two squads are fittingly bitter enemies as they vie for the final top-3 seed in the NBA Draft Lottery. Tuesday night saw Oklahoma City drop their eighth straight game. It was also their 22nd loss in the last 23 games dating back to the start of April. Given that the Thunder are trotting a G-League squad out there each night, they have to be the favorites to land a top-3 seed when it’s all said and done.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Current Record: 21-48
Lottery Status: 0.5 games back of top-3 seed
Remaining Games: vs BOS; at WAS; at BKN

While many NBA Draft Lottery analysts argued that the Cavaliers might improve after some strong trades earlier in the season, such success has failed to materialize. A big reason for that has been injuries. Larry Nance Jr. was lost for the season, and fellow young talent Darius Garland is also currently sidelined. Cleveland is doing its best to finish with a top-3 lottery seed having lost 11 straight games. Given that their three remaining opponents are all playoff-bound, that number could very well stretch to 14 to finish off the season.

Orlando Magic

Current Record: 21-48
Lottery Status: 0.5 games back of top-3 seed
Remaining Games: at ATL; at PHI; at PHI

The Magic rattled off three wins in four games two weeks ago to not only weaken their NBA Draft Lottery standing but also fall out of the top-3 seeds altogether. Two of those wins came over the Cavaliers and Pistons, certainly a negative given that those two teams are also in the running to land optimum odds at the top pick. Orlando has gotten back on track since by dropping four straight games including a loss to the Milwaukee Bucks on Tuesday. Given their remaining schedule, the Magic could very well sneak past both the Thunder and Cavs and find their way into a top-3 seed.

Minnesota Timberwolves 

Current Record: 21-47
Lottery Status: 1.5 games back of top-3 seed
Remaining Games: vs DEN; vs BOS; vs DAL

Unlike essentially every other team on this list, the Timberwolves have proven that they are actively trying to WIN ball games down the stretch. Of course, Minnesota does have a plethora of talent on the roster, in Karl-Anthony Towns, D’Angelo Russell and this past year’s top draft pick Anthony Edwards. A win Tuesday night over the Pistons all but guarantees the Wolves won’t be in among the three teams with the best odds at the 2021 top pick.