Looking at which third-year wide receiver has the best chance to be a fantasy football breakout, including Ladd McConkey and Malik Nabers.
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Over the last decade, 22 third-year wide receivers have finished top-12 in the PPR fantasy football rankings. This includes three WRs last season: Puka Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Zay Flowers. That tells us, on average, two third-year receivers will finish as a WR1 this season. But who?
Third-Year Fantasy Football WR Breakout Candidates
- Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI)
- Rome Odunze (CHI)
- Brian Thomas Jr. (JAC)
- Ladd McConkey (LAC)
- Malik Nabers (NYG)
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The Essentials
But just being a third-year WR isn’t enough to qualify as our breakout candidates; we can dwindle this list down even further using data over the last five years. Let’s look at the average stat line and percentages of the 12 WRs that have done it over the last five seasons:
~140 targets, ~95 receptions, ~1,200 yards, and 8 touchdowns
Looking at those numbers as team percentages:
~25.5% target share, ~25% receptions, ~29% receiving yards, and ~31% receiving touchdowns
Marvin Harrison Jr. Fantasy Outlook
I don’t have to tell you this, but just go ahead and cross off the likelihood of Marvin Harrison Jr. becoming a top-12 fantasy football WR this season. The biggest factors are not the stats needed. Rather, the two biggest factors go by the names of Trey McBride and Michael Wilson. There are too many mouths to feed in Arizona. Despite the Cardinals’ draft capital used on Harrison, it is clear that the passing game runs through McBride.
Another red flag is Harrison’s inability to consistently catch the football. To reach the 95-catch threshold, he would need 175 targets at his current catch rate (54.5% catch rate).
Rome Odunze Fantasy Outlook
If Rome Odunze were healthy all last season, we are talking about how he could repeat as a top-12 fantasy WR. Odunze is very much like Marvin Harrison Jr. in the sense of target competition and lack of receptions. Odunze will have to battle with Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III for targets, but if you look at it half-full, Odunze had 90 targets in 12 games… which led all Bears receivers.
Of 110 qualified WRs last season, Odunze had the eighth-lowest catch rate (48.9%), nearly 20% lower than the league’s average 67.5%. Odunze could get the target share and the touchdowns, but will he catch enough passes, and can Caleb Williams be more accurate?
Brian Thomas Jr. Fantasy Outlook
He has done it before, but it feels like we are far from Brian Thomas Jr. being able to do it again. Last season was heartbreaking to see him fall. He had missed three games and totaled just 91 targets and two receiving touchdowns. And even worse, he caught just 52.7% of his passes. It wasn’t like Trevor Lawrence was inaccurate; BTJ had 10 drops last season (Detroit Lions WR Jameson Williams is the only player with more).
But the biggest obstacle for BTJ returning to a fantasy WR1 is the targets around him, sharing the field with Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers, Travis Hunter, and TE Brenton Strange. I want to believe that there is a world where Brian Thomas Jr. returns to fantasy glory and redeems everyone that still trusts he can produce, but the light is dim with everyone on the Parker Washington train.
Ladd McConkey Fantasy Outlook
With Keenan Allen officially out of the picture to return with the Chargers, Ladd McConkey has a serious opportunity to return to being a WR1 for fantasy. As a rookie (2024), McConkey finished as the WR12 in PPR scoring, with only 112 targets (22.8% target share). I expect McConkey to exceed his rookie form with new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel calling plays. McDaniel had this to say about making things easier for quarterback Justin Herbert:
“There’s a lot of incredible plays Justin has made, that he’s firmly capable [of making]. Sometimes as a coach you can rely upon that a little too much,” McDaniel said. “Easier completions… it can be taxing over time for a player to necessitate an incredible play, so you try to take it off of them by low-cost, high-reward offense that he’s firmly capable of doing but also maybe a lesser talent would be capable of doing as well.”
I don’t know about you, but that sounds a lot more like McConkey than Quentin Johnston, who had an average depth of target just shy of 12 yards (11.8), compared to McConkey’s ADOT just below 10 yards (9.9) each of his first two seasons. For more receiving opportunity stats, check out our award-winning fantasy football draft kit! McConkey has a shot of a bounce-back season, but with Tyler Biadsz already being done for the season, the rest of the offensive line is going to need to hold up for Herbert to deliver the targets.
Malik Nabers Fantasy Outlook
Like McConkey and BTJ, we have already seen Malik Nabers deliver a top-12 PPR fantasy football finish, ranking as the WR6 as a rookie. Had Nabers not missed two games, he would have led the league in targets and threatened Ja’Marr Chase’s triple crown. But can Nabers replicate that 2024 season? Well, here is a quick timeline of where we are in Nabers’ road to recovery from his ACL injury in Week 4 of last season:
- September 28 – ACL and meniscus torn in right knee
- October 28 – Dr. Daniel E. Cooper completes initial surgery
- Spring 2026 – Cleanup procedure removing scar tissue causing stiffness
- July 29 – First training camp practice, individual drills
- August 17 – First practice with live team reps
- August 24 – Nabers’ first practice without a non-contact jersey
All that to say, if Nabers can even play 15 games this season, he is the clear target winner. He is clearly the third-year WR with the best odds to finish in the top 12, and Zach Brunner currently has him ranked as the WR12. A 30% target share is very well in the range of outcomes; seven receivers had a 30%+ target share last season, and Wan’Dale Robinson was force-fed on his way to a 29.7% target share last season.
