Every year when March comes around, you can count on certain things from college basketball. Buzzer-beater endings, shocking bracket-buster upsets and one of the favorites winning the National Championship. The last one may come as a surprise, but it is historically the case. Out of the last 38 NCAA Tournaments, 24 have been won by 1-seeds. Of the remaining 14, five have been won by 2-seeds, four by 3-seeds, and two by 4-seeds. Last year’s UConn team had the longest odds entering the tournament of any champion since they won it in 2014. So, what teams are most likely to win the 2024 NCAA Tournament? And how many really have a shot?
If you’re a college basketball die-hard who’s entwined with the sport’s dialogue on social media, you’ve probably read a statement like this: Since the creation of KenPom, all but one national champion has ranked top X in adjusted offensive efficiency and top Y in adjusted defensive efficiency. While it is important and common for champions to be efficient on both ends of the floor, there are outliers as well. Also, we haven’t even reached conference tournaments yet, meaning there is still room for teams to grow and potentially fall.
Below is a chart of every national champion since 2010 and how they ranked in efficiency on March 1st, according to Bart Torvik.
| Team | Year | Offense | Defense |
| UConn | 2023 | 7 | 19 |
| Kansas | 2022 | 3 | 37 |
| Baylor | 2021 | 3 | 19 |
| Virginia | 2019 | 3 | 4 |
| Villanova | 2018 | 1 | 31 |
| North Carolina | 2017 | 7 | 21 |
| Villanova | 2016 | 12 | 2 |
| Duke | 2015 | 2 | 47 |
| UConn | 2014 | 49 | 13 |
| Louisville | 2013 | 23 | 1 |
| Kentucky | 2012 | 2 | 9 |
| UConn | 2011 | 31 | 41 |
| Duke | 2010 | 2 | 5 |
As you can see, every NCAA Tournament Champion since 2010 has ranked inside the top 50 in offensive and defensive efficiency at this point in the season. Also, besides the one outlier of UConn in 2011, every title winner has brought either a top-13 offensive or defensive unit into March. Here are the teams in the current season that meet both of these criteria: Houston, Purdue, UConn, Arizona, Auburn, Iowa St, Tennessee, Kansas, North Carolina, Saint Mary’s, Duke and Creighton. Not all of these teams are of the same caliber and they certainly do not have similar chances to win the whole thing.
Let’s separate them into groups based on their chances to win the 2024 NCAA Tournament, as well as address some teams who didn’t fit into this criteria.
2024 NCAA Tournament Favorites
As of today, seven teams sit in the top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Unsurprisingly, five of them are vying for the four 1-seeds and will appear in this section. They all certainly have the potential to cut the nets in Phoenix and thus do not require a long-winded explanation. Here are the five favorites to win the 2024 NCAA Tournament.
UConn: The reigning champions have reloaded and are arguably better than last year’s team. The roster doesn’t really have any weaknesses and it is led by one of the best coaches in the sport, Dan Hurley.
Purdue: As long as the Boilermakers can shake the demons of past March Madness upsets, they should be poised for a deep run this year. Soon-to-be back-to-back National Player of the Year Zach Edey is a force on both ends and the rest of the roster complements him well.
Houston: One of the best defenses in recent history, Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars have only allowed 70 points in regulation once this season. Jamal Shead and LJ Cryer provide enough of an offensive punch in the backcourt for the Coogs to go all the way.
Arizona: Although inconsistent at times, Arizona is as talented as just about anyone in college basketball. Their backcourt can really score and their elite athleticism throughout the lineup helps the defense. Having Caleb Love on your team during March Madness can be like a game of roulette, but the Wildcats have the roster to win a title.
Tennessee: The Volunteers have never made a Final Four in program history. They finally have an offensive talent who can help them do that. The scoring of Northern Colorado transfer Dalton Knecht parlayed with Tennessee’s top-five defense fortifies the Vols’ status as one of the teams with the highest likelihood of winning the title.
Other Contenders
Creighton: Baylor Scheierman, Trey Alexander and center Ryan Kalkbrenner combine for over 52 points, 22 rebounds and 10 assists per game. There are some question marks about the rest of the roster, but Creighton’s A-game is as good as anyone’s, as shown in their 19-point win over UConn two weeks ago.
Duke: The Blue Devils have surprisingly flown under the radar somewhat this season after starting the season ranked second in the AP Poll. After a rocky start, Duke is now 22-6 and has won six of its last seven games. Despite some questions about their toughness, Duke has the talent and upside to win six straight tournament games, particularly if they encounter some favorable matchup breaks along their path.
North Carolina: The other team involved in The Battle of Tobacco Road; North Carolina is in a similar spot as Duke. A really solid, mostly consistent team that is good enough to win it all but isn’t one of the favorites. The major question mark for the Heels is whether or not they have enough scoring outside of All-American guard R.J. Davis.
Just Not Talented Enough
Alongside having an upper-echelon offense and defense, most championship teams have a highly regarded NBA prospect. Since 2010, 8-of-13 championship teams have had a player drafted in the lottery. That is not necessarily the case for most title contenders this year as many of the top prospects are overseas, but there’s still something to be said about having the talent that it takes to win a title. Here are the teams who fit the analytical criteria of contenders for the 2024 NCAA Tournament, but they simply don’t have the roster to do so.
Iowa St/Saint Mary’s: The Cyclones and Gaels will be grouped together as they are similar teams with similar statistical profiles — top-10 defenses, top-50 offenses, and good point guard play. Neither team has enough firepower to win six straight games in the 2024 NCAA Tournament. The first time they run into one of the high-powered offenses that has a good night they will likely be eliminated.
Kansas: I could very well be regretting this one after the second weekend of the tournament when Bill Self is heading to the Final Four with two All-Americans. However, even with Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar, I just don’t believe the Jayhawks have what it takes to win a championship. Guard play is key in the NCAA Tournament, and although Dajuan Harris is a great defender and table-setter, Kansas really lacks scoring in the backcourt.
Auburn: This one goes against everything that was discussed in the first half of this article. Auburn is one of the seven teams with a top-20 offense and defense, currently ranking 14th and 8th, respectively. However, when you watch the Tigers play or even look at their resume, nothing about them screams national title contender. They only have one Quad-1 win and their guards simply aren’t good offensive players. They play with as much intensity as anyone and have seemingly endless depth but there is just no reliable playmaking on this team. Unlike Kansas, I have zero fear when stating that Auburn has no chance to win the whole thing.
Crazier Things Have Happened
Kentucky: If you’ve never seen this version of the Wildcats play and catch them on the right night, you’ll be left wondering why they aren’t the favorite to win the title. College basketball’s most exciting team ranks third nationally at 88.8 points per game and has had five players score at least 28 points in a game, four of them being freshmen. There are games where this team looks like it is playing on rookie level with the sliders turned up. However, they really struggle to defend, ranking 86th in the country in defensive efficiency according to KenPom. This unit has been an issue all year and, although improving lately, is still not at a championship level.
Despite all historical data suggesting that this Kentucky defense is nowhere near adequate enough to win a National Championship, I refuse to write them off completely. They are just so talented, so explosive, and have four real end-of-game options in the backcourt. Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham are John Calipari’s best freshmen duo since De’Aaron Fox and Malik Monk. If you told me those two and the rest of this roster won a title by averaging 90 points per game in 2024 NCAA Tournament play, I would be surprised but it would not be unbelievable.
Other Notables
Marquette: When making the criteria for likely champions based on predictive data, I wanted to add a caveat so that the Golden Eagles could be included. Marquette currently ranks 16th in offense and 14th in defense and is the seventh and final team mentioned that is top 20 in both. Point guard Tyler Kolek is one of the best players in the country and there’s enough around him for Marquette to win a title. Despite their favorable metrics, I would have Marquette in the “Other Contenders” category and not as one of the favorites.
Alabama/Illinois: Much like Kentucky, these teams boast awesome offensive units but struggle to defend. However, neither has the single-game upside that the Wildcats do which is why they get grouped together and don’t get as much of a consideration. The Tide and Illini both rank in the top five in offense but below 90 in defense. Unlike Alabama, Illinois has the personnel to be a good defensive team but it actually is trending the other way on that end of the floor in recent weeks. Both teams are not good enough defensively to win the title.
So, there you have it. I have settled on 10 teams who have a chance to win the 2024 National Championship: UConn, Purdue, Houston, Arizona, Tennessee, Creighton, Duke, North Carolina, Marquette and Kentucky with an outside shot. These teams have numbers to back them up and also pass the eye test. All should be poised for big runs this year in March Madness.
