I feel like it wouldn’t be as exciting if I talked about the Chiefs every week in this article, so I am going to change it up and go with the Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals. Shockingly, both teams are supporting quite a bit of fantasy-relevant players this year, and due to the lack of defense on both teams, it should be a high-scoring game.
Seattle Seahawks (2-1, 1-0 Road) vs Arizona Cardinals (0-2-1, 0-1 Home)
Date: Sunday, Sept. 29, 2019
Time: 4:05 p.m. EST
Last week, Russell Wilson recorded a 400 passing yard, 50 rushing yard and four touchdown performance against the weak Saints defense. The Saints rank dead last in fantasy points allowed to the quarterback, and luckily for Wilson, the Cardinals only are two spots lower and allow three points per game less, at 27.61. The Cardinals have gotten torched this year, especially in fantasy football. With the lowest point total allowed to an opposing quarterback of 28.95, Russ is going to have another great day.
Show above is Russell Wilson’s performance at certain implied team totals, and as you can see, he has two games at a team total of 27 that are both above 30. I am all in on Wilson this week and I expect a top-5 finish. The running back situation seems a little fuzzy at the moment, with Carson struggling with fumbles, Rashaad Penny injured and C.J. Prosise getting some work, but Pete Carroll said Carson was the “starter” so he should and NEEDS to get back on track this game against a run defense that allows 20.70 fantasy points to opposing running backs.
Seattle, not by choice, has narrowed down their pass catchers to three players: Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf and Will Dissly. Lockett has seen an average of 13 targets the last two games. The Cardinals defense ranks middle of the pack against the run, but when you are receiving 10+ targets per game, the defense seems irrelevant as you will return production solely based of volume. Another guy I really like this week is D.K. Metcalf in deeper leagues, as he should be a solid start in what should be a shootout game. Metcalf is consistently seeing around six targets a game and with air yards above 100 yards in all three games, he is guaranteed to return value against a much smaller secondary. Finally, the most talked about player this week is Will Dissly. The Cardinals are worse than terrible against the opposing tight end position, as they have allowed point totals of 27.6, 34.7, 25.5 the first three weeks to the whole team’s tight end group. Luckily for Dissly, the Seahawks just traded away the other tight end on the team, Nick Vannett, so Dissly is going to see all the tight end work this week while newly-acquired Luke Willson gets worked back into the offense. So, if Dissly were to accumulate at least 90% of what the Cardinals allow per week (29.27) then he would net 26 fantasy points.
The Cardinals have sure made it obvious that they are looking to pass before the run, which sadly is hurting David Johnson’s stock. But by using an air attack, it has helped the wide receivers on this team return solid fantasy value. After a rough finish to what was a very solid start last week, Kyler Murray had an underwhelming game of only 173 yards, but he still attempted 43 passes. The Cardinals will most likely have a negative game script in this one, so I have confidence in playing Murray against a Seahawks defense that Teddy Bridgewater seemed to have no trouble with. It isn’t the best matchup, as the Seahawks only allow 17.73 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, but the volume of pass attempts alone should keep Murray relevant this week.
Seattle is allowing 23.07 fantasy points to opposing running backs, so Johnson should be a high-end RB2 with RB1 upside due to the passing work. The only thing that Johnson has shown this year that worries me is most of his points are coming in garbage time or in a negative game script. I am not a big fan on having to rely on a big screen play just to provide a solid week for Johnson, but you must play him at where you drafted him. The two wide receivers that have returned solid value this year are the two that everyone thought they would, Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk. Seattle ranks right in the middle of fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, but due to the pass volume, Kirk and Fitzgerald are auto starts every week. Fitzgerald is seeing a little over 10 targets a game and, Kirk has seen a couple more targets, putting him closer to 11 targets per game. Both are great PPR receivers who will receive ton of work week in and out.