The 2022 College Football Bowl Season continues on Friday with a primetime showdown between the Wake Forest Demon Deacons and the Missouri Tigers in the Gasparilla Bowl. This is a rare pre-Christmas matchup between Power 5 programs and should serve as a terrific appetizer for all of the great bowl games that will follow next week. If the Wake Forest vs Missouri odds and college football betting picks are any indications, this matchup is very even with a slight edge going to the ACC representative.
The following game preview provides the college football betting odds, trends and FEI Index ratings before sharing our official Wake Forest vs Missouri prediction for the Gasparilla Bowl matchup.
Wake Forest vs Missouri Prediction | College Football Betting Picks
Gasparilla Bowl
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (7-5, 3-5 ACC) vs. Missouri Tigers (6-6, 3-5 SEC)
Date: Friday, December 23, 2022
Time: 6:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Raymond James Stadium — Tampa, FL
Coverage: ESPN
Heading into the final weekend of October, Wake Forest was 6-1 with the only loss coming in double-overtime to eventual ACC Champion Clemson. To the surprise of many, the Demon Deacons were unable to sustain that high level of play through to the end of the season. Junior quarterback Sam Hartman had an awful day at the office in a lopsided loss to Louisville that set the late-season swoon in motion. Wake lost four of its final five games and actually finished below .500 for the year in conference play.
Missouri nearly pulled a seismic upset in early October when they led for the vast majority of a four-point loss to Georgia. Despite coming up short, the game proved that the Tigers could be competitive in the vaunted SEC. Mizzou only won three conference games all season, but four of their five SEC losses came by seven points or less. The Tigers defeated Arkansas in the final week of the regular season to clinch bowl eligibility, but they will be without a star receiver and three key defenders in the Gasparilla Bowl.
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Wake Forest vs Missouri College Football Betting Picks and Odds
All college football betting odds for Wake Forest vs Missouri can be found at BetOnline Sportsbook.
Moneyline: WF: (-133) | MIZ: (+113)
Point Spread: WF: -2 (-113) | MIZ: +2 (-107)
Total: 59 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
College Football FEI Ratings
The following table shares the Fremeau Efficiency Index rankings for both teams involved in this Gasparilla Bowl matchup. The purpose of the FEI ratings is to represent the per-possession scoring advantage that a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. The rankings for offense and defense are out of 131 total FBS-level teams.
Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) ratings are from Football Outsiders
| Team | Overall FEI (Rk) | OFEI (Rk) | DFEI (Rk) |
| Wake Forest | .32 (39) | 1.03 (18) | -.19 (73) |
| Missouri | .34 (38) | -.08 (71) | .69 (19) |
Wake Forest vs Missouri College Football Betting Trends
- Demon Deacons are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.
- Five of the Demon Deacons’ last six games following a straight up loss have gone UNDER the total.
- over 4-0 vs sec
- Demon Deacons are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games after losing by three points or less.
- Tigers are just 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games played in the month of December.
- Each of the Tigers’ last four neutral site games has gone UNDER the total.
- The UNDER is 13-3 in the Tigers’ last 16 games following a conference win spanning the last five years.
- Tigers have allowed 38.8 points per game in their last four games against ACC Conference opponents, all of which went OVER the total.
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Wake Forest vs Missouri Prediction | College Football Betting Picks
There’s no denying that the SEC was viewed more prominently as a conference than the ACC this season. As such, bettors may be surprised to find that the Wake Forest vs Missouri odds are slightly in favor of the Demon Deacons.
Like many other bowl games, player opt-outs and the transfer portal are set to play a major role in determining the personnel that both teams have available on Friday. Although both sides have lost multiple players for the bowl game, the losses on the Missouri side are far more significant.
First, there is leading receiver Dominic Lovett, who entered the transfer portal at the end of the regular season. Missouri had a middling passing attack all season long, to begin with. Sophomore quarterback Brady Cook could find himself up against it in a big way without the SEC’s fourth-leading receiver. Expect the Tigers to rely more heavily on RBs Nathaniel Peat and Cody Schrader as a result.
While Lovett’s departure will leave a massive void offensively, the biggest losses for Mizzou are on defense. All year long, the Tigers were able to stay in games thanks to having an elite defensive front. Well, the two stars of that front, Isaiah McGuire and D.J. Coleman have both opted out to prepare for the 2023 NFL Draft. Missouri will also be without safety Martez Manuel for the same reason.
Needless to say, Wake Forest’s offensive line is catching a huge break with Coleman and McGuire opting out. Not only will this possibly help jumpstart one of the ACC’s weaker rushing attacks but it figures to afford Sam Hartman a clean pocket to find playmakers like wideout AT Perry down the field.
WAKE FOREST COVERS will be our official college football betting Wake Forest vs Missouri prediction for the Gasparilla Bowl.
For what it’s worth, the ESPN Matchup Predictor gives Wake Forest a 60.0% chance to win this game outright.
Bet: Wake Forest -2 (-113 at BetOnline Sportsbook)
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