2020 NFC Divisional Round Game
Minnesota Vikings (10-6, 4-4 Away) vs. San Francisco 49ers (13-3, 6-2 Home)
Date: Saturday, Jan. 11, 2019
Time: 4:35 p.m. EST
Venue: Levi’s Stadium — Santa Clara, CA
Coverage: NBC
Vikings vs 49ers Spread and Odds
Moneyline: MIN: (+230) | SF: (-310)
Spread: MIN +7 (-110) | SF: -7 (-110)
Total: 44 – Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
Public (Spread) Betting Percentages via oddsFire: MIN: (53%) | SF: (47%)
Odds to Win NFC Championship: MIN (+700) | SF: (-120)
Odds to Win Super Bowl LIV: MIN: (+1400) | SF: (+300)
What a Wild Card Weekend! It certainly was a memorable slate of games, with two overtime thrillers, two major upsets, three 40-year-old quarterbacks (all losing) and one unforgettable Josh Allen no-look backhand lateral while being tackled. It really was one of the great Wild Card slates in recent memory.
All that is in the past now, though, and we’re moving on to the Divisional Round for another excellent set of matchups, with each game featuring one well-deserving Wild Card team and one well-rested home favorite coming off a first-round bye. In the past decade, 30 of the 40 Divisional Round games have ended with the 1 or 2 seed moving on to their respective conference championship game, meaning the trends are certainly against these road underdogs.
The first game of the weekend pits the San Francisco 49ers against the surprise sixth-seeded Minnesota Vikings. Currently, the 49ers are the 7-point home favorites, according to MyBookie Sportsbook.
Let’s get down to business and analyze each team’s strengths and weaknesses as we await their approaching battle on the gridiron.
(1) San Francisco 49ers (13-3)
It’s safe to say that six months ago, only the devout and maniacal 49ers fans among us predicted this team to be in the position they are now. However, we’re here now and the 49ers are the betting favorite to represent the NFC in Super Bowl LIV. Rookie Nick Bosa turned into an instant star and a Pro Bowler, while what was supposed to be a weak offense transformed into one of the league’s best. It may have been a surprise, but the Niners are here, and no one’s calling them a fluke.
What are they good at?
Getting to the quarterback, for starters. The Minnesota offensive line will have its hands full protecting Kirk Cousins from the four quarterback killers that have him in their sights. With Dee Ford expected to return from a hamstring injury that has kept him out since Week 11, he’ll rejoin the ranks along with Bosa, Arik Armstead and All-Pro DeForest Buckner to complete the most dominant pass rush among playoff teams. The four combined for 33 sacks, with none accumulating fewer than 6.5, which the oft-injured but insanely talented Ford managed on just 22% of the team’s defensive snaps. The Niners defense as a whole finished second in the league in sacks per pass attempt, and with an extra week to rest, they have a chance to take over this game on their own.
George Kittle is probably the team’s best player and has as good a case as anybody for the right to be called the best tight end in the league. He’s a gamebreaker who excels after the catch, and he’s currently one of the hardest players in the game to bring down. Kittle is also an excellent blocker that plays a big part in one of the top run games in the league. Although he’s a tight end, it doesn’t matter, he is the #1 receiver that every great team needs. There really isn’t enough you can say about this guy. How he performs can go a long way in dictating the outcome of this game. I’ll have more on this later.
No team runs the ball more than the 49ers, besides the Ravens, which almost doesn’t count because Lamar Jackson carried the ball 176 times in the regular season (the 49ers get virtually no rushing production from quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo). While rushing numbers are generally game script-based and aren’t closely correlated with point production, the Niners have a pretty good thing going behind an excellent offensive line, as well as fullback Kyle Jusczyk and the aforementioned Kittle, both of whom run block at an elite level.
The emergence of Raheem Mostert has taken their success at moving the ball on the ground to another level, too. Ever since he started being used as the de facto starter in Week 13, Mostert has absolutely taken off and he finished the season with an average of 5.6 yards per carry for nearly 800 yards. Thanks largely to Mostert’s play, the Niners rank towards the top of the league in rushing efficiency, as well as quantity.
Rookie Deebo Samuel and midseason addition Emmanuel Sanders have given what was expected to be a completely Kittle-centric passing offense a few exciting wrinkles. The 49ers passing offense is rarely overwhelming, but it has been efficient and productive thanks to the play of these two. Sanders has playoff experience and could be an especially important factor in this game.
Richard Sherman was just voted to his fifth All-Pro team and is no doubt headed to the Hall of Fame someday. He leads the top pass defense in the league, aided by that devastating pass rush. Things should only get better with starting safety Jaquiski Tartt returning from injury.
Robbie Gould is one of the greatest kickers of all time, and you never know just how much that is going to matter come playoff time.
What are they bad at?
Well, not very much. Otherwise they wouldn’t be 13-3 and the top seed in the NFC. There are some things that concern me, however.
Despite the wealth of talent surrounding him, I have yet to be convinced that Jimmy Garoppolo is ready for this moment. He had no shortage of high-pressure scenarios in which to prove himself this season and, while many of them ended in wins, it was often that the success came in spite of Garoppolo than because of him. He is by no means a bad quarterback, and he actually finished the regular season as the third-most accurate quarterback in the league, but his struggles in leading drives when he absolutely needs to could come back to haunt them.
The 49ers are somewhat susceptible to the run, which, as we just saw with the Patriots, can prove a major Achilles heel against an elite running back, which the Vikings just so happen to possess. The return of star linebacker Kwon Alexander from a pectoral tear could be pivotal in this respect (Yes, another 49ers defender making a comeback off an injury. The importance of the bye can’t be overstated for some teams). But although he is returning, were this not a playoff game, Alexander would not be out there. It’ll be interesting to see just how much he plays, and how effectively.
The explosive defensive plays have really tapered off in the second half of the season. The 49ers only have two interceptions in their last nine games, and four sacks in their last five games.
It’s also important to note that this team lacks playoff experience. Jimmy Garoppolo, among many others, will be playing in their first postseason game. Vets like Richard Sherman, Emmanuel Sanders and Joe Staley will need to set the tone.
(6) Minnesota Vikings (11-6)
The historically snake bitten Vikings have finally found a team to pick on, as they eliminated the Saints in a stunner for the second time in three years. It’s still tough to determine how seriously the public is taking the Vikings, but this absolutely is not a team to take lightly. The only thing holding the Vikings back is their perceived inability to win in the playoffs. That isn’t an invalid point, but when you step back and examine this individual Vikings team for what it is, it’s tough to not like what you see. The talent level at every position is impossible to discard, and the remarkable win that they’re coming off of can’t be ignored either. Make no mistake, these Vikings came to play this postseason.
What are they good at?
A lot of what the Vikings can do matches up extremely well with what the 49ers do well, which makes these Vikings not quite the obvious underdog that they appear at first glance.
Not to start with the same thing, but the Vikings can get after the quarterback too. They finished the regular season with just as many sacks (48) as the 49ers did, tying for fifth in the NFL. Much of this is thanks to the dominance of Pro Bowl defensive end Danielle Hunter, who sacked the quarterback 14.5 times this season, further reaffirming his status as one of the best young players in the league. Stud veteran Everson Griffen (eight sacks) and breakout third-year defensive end Ifeadi Ogenigbo (seven sacks) round out the majority of where the Vikings get their pass rush from. And it’s a scary trio.
The Vikings forced a turnover on 17.7% of opposing offensive drives, ranking second in the NFL. They finished in the top five in the regular season in sacks, interceptions, forced fumbles and fumble recoveries. The Vikings forced two turnovers against the Saints, the least turnover-prone team of all time, and Hunter’s strip sack of Brees might be the singular play to point to when analyzing why the Vikings won the game. It was remarkably clutch and stopped what might have been the game winning drive. In terms of explosive plays, no team besides possibly the Steelers was better this season.
Speaking of the defensive line, this run defense is spectacular. The Vikings’ front seven stopped Alvin Kamara dead in his tracks in the Wild Card game and pose a daunting matchup for a 49ers team that loves to run the ball.
Notable for this game in particular, the Vikings possess the top defense in the NFL against the tight end position. A 60.3 passer rating allowed when the position has been targeted is a huge advantage the Vikings have over many of the teams that George Kittle has previously torched. If anybody can slow him down, it’s Minnesota’s elite safety duo of Anthony Harris and Harrison Smith, as well as linebacker Eric Kendricks.
Dalvin Cook earned his first Pro Bowl nod with an absolutely astounding season. His 1,135 rushing yards on 4.5 yards per attempt was impressive, but he also finished second on the team in receptions, with 53 for 519 yards, putting him on another level. You have to watch for Cook on every single play, because he is the engine that makes this offense go.
…Most of the time, that is. What a relief it was to see Adam Thielen finally get it going against the Saints after months in and out of the lineup, with hardly any production when he was on the field. The duo of Thielen and Stefon Diggs can be lethal at its best, although it hasn’t quite clicked for most of this year. Diggs finished strong down the stretch and ended with a good statistical season, but he dealt with serious inconsistency as well as Thielen, which is plain as day when referencing Diggs’ two receptions for 19 yards last Sunday. Their abilities to put it together and get open downfield while Cook and the Vikings supporting cast, including tight ends Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith, try to make plays in the middle of the field, will be critical in whether the Vikings win or lose.
Dan Bailey has long been one of the most accurate kickers in the NFL and he continued that into this season, making 93.1% of his field goals. Both teams have trustworthy kickers, which is important this time of year.
What are they bad at?
While the 49ers are exceptional against the pass and beatable on the ground, the Vikings are strong against the run but beatable through the air. Top cornerback Xavier Rhodes is a few years removed from his best season, and while Trae Waynes has played well, corner has been a weakness for the Vikings, especially now with primary slot corners Mike Hughes (definitely) and Mackensie Alexander (almost definitely) missing this game. The Vikings will be vulnerable in the slot, especially with the extra attention that Kittle should draw. Both Emmanuel Sanders and Deebo Samuel spend some time in the slot, but who this really opens the door for is Kendrick Bourne, the team’s primary slot receiver who could be a dark horse to make a big difference in this game, despite his sparse usage in the regular season.
Kirk Cousins is an experienced quarterback and he protects the ball well, but he needs to be the elite quarterback on Saturday if he’s to eliminate the best team in the conference. He played a great, turnover-free game against New Orleans, and in the face of enormous literal and mental pressure, he might have to do it again. Before last week’s game, Cousins had a reputation of not being able to win big games. He’s done it once now, but it’s still a point worth bringing up.
Predictions
Despite the 7-point spread, the Vikings and the 49ers are an evenly matched team, and although the Vikings will have to travel west and play on a short week, they still have a solid chance of coming out on top. Of the four playoff games this weekend, this game is the one which I believe has the highest probability of an upset. In fact, even with the returning defenders for San Fran, I’m tempted to pick the underdog Vikings to win outright. You know what? Let’s get crazy.
Final Score: Vikings 23, 49ers 20
I believe that the Vikings’ playoff experience will be able to help them avoid getting beat down by the refreshed Niners. If they can slow down George Kittle and avoid being gashed on the ground by Raheem Mostert, which they have the personnel to achieve, then they will be giving themselves a chance. Their offense should be able to post a decent score against a Niners defense that was much scarier earlier in the season. The 49ers pass rush could be a game changer and Sherman will stop his man, but if the decisive and accurate Cousins can get it out fast, spread the ball around and get some help from Dalvin Cook, the Vikings have enough there to keep the chains moving. Jimmy Garoppolo will be good for at least one turnover too.
UPSET ALERT.
Think I’m a lunatic? Am I not giving the 49ers enough credit? Is believing in the Vikings to any degree an absolute melonhead move? Let me know. Let’s keep the discussion going on Twitter.
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