The Thanksgiving Day NFL festivities kick off with a cross-conference matchup in the Motor City. Two teams clinging desperately to their postseason hopes will look to notch a crucial victory when the Houston Texans take on the Detroit Lions. The NFL odds and expert NFL picks in advance of this contest offer a slight advantage to the road team.
This betting preview contains the NFL odds, key betting trends, prop bets, and best NFL picks for Texans vs Lions on Thanksgiving Day.
NFL Odds, NFL Picks and NFL Props | Texans vs Lions
Texans vs Lions Game Info
Houston Texans (3-7, 1- Away) at Detroit Lions (4-6, 1-3 Home)
Date: Thursday, Nov. 26, 2020
Time: 12:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Ford Field – Detroit, MI
Coverage: CBS
Attendance: No fans will be allowed to attend.
Texans vs Lions NFL Odds + NFL Picks
Opening Lines: Lions -1.5; O/U 50.5
Moneyline: : HOU: (-170) | DET: (+150)
Spread: HOU: -3 (-115) | DET: +3 (-105)
Total: 51 — Over: (-105) | Under: (-115)
All odds courtesy of Bovada Sportsbook
Texans vs Lions Overview
The Texans come into this Thanksgiving Day battle on the heels of their first win of the season. Their first win, that is, over a team not named the Jacksonville Jaguars. Deshaun Watson was brilliant in a seven-point victory over the New England Patriots that really wasn’t as close as the final score would lead you to believe. The result has many rushing to back the Texans in their NFL picks this week. Watson and the Houston offense have another tremendous opportunity on deck against a Lions defense that surrenders an average of over four touchdowns per game. Star Texans pass rushers J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus will also be in a favorable matchup against a Detroit offensive line that is giving up 2.7 sacks per game.
For the Lions, it can’t be any worse than their performance against the Carolina Panthers this past weekend. Matthew Stafford questionable leading up to the game and the Lions’ offense was also without D’Andre Swift and Kenny Golladay. Even so, 185 yards of total offense (only 40 rushing) and a mere 10 first downs are inexcusable. The fact that this abysmal showing came a week after a solid win over Washington was all the more obscure. Inconsistency has been a common theme for NFL picks experts who have backed Detroit during the Matt Patricia era. The Lions will look to right the ship and improve upon their 37-41-2 record in Thanksgiving Day games.
Texans vs Lions Betting Trends
- Texans 2020 Betting Trends: 3-7 ATS; 5-5 to the Over
- Lions 2020 Betting Trends: 4-6 ATS; 6-4 to the Over
- The Texans are 5-2-2 ATS in their last nine road games against a team with a losing record at home.
- The Lions are 3-7 ATS in their last ten home games.
- The Over has cashed in each of the Lions’ last five games on field turf.
Texans vs Lions Stats
- Houston has averaged 22.7 points per game (PPG) this season (Tied for No. 22 in the NFL)
- Houston has surrendered 27.2 PPG this season (No. 23 in the NFL)
- Detroit has averaged 22.7 PPG this season (Tied for No. 22 in the NFL)
- Detroit has surrendered 28.7 PPG this season (Tied for No. 28 in the NFL)
Monkey Knife Fight NFL Props
Monkey Knife Fight is a DFS site unlike DraftKings or FanDuel. Instead, the contests feature props to play, with varying multipliers for each contest. Unlike the aforementioned sites, you are only competing with yourself when making NFL picks on MKF, and you do not need to worry about annoying salary caps.
Monkey Knife Fight has several great NFL props for both the Thanksgiving Day games and the entire Week 12 slate. Here is one of my favorites for the Texans vs Lions game.
It’s wild to see both D’Andre Swift and Duke Johnson having the exact same rushing yards total for this contest. I’m happy to play the over on 52.5 for both. Both have a matchup worthy of NFL picks going in their favor. The Texans are surrendering an NFL-worst 159.3 rushing yards per game. Not far behind are the Lions, giving up 139.0 rushing yards per contest, good for 30th in the NFL. Despite Swift missing last week with a concussion, I like both backs to have enough touches and running lanes to clear their yardage threshold on Thursday.
Picking both yardage totals correctly would win you 3.5x your buy-in.
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Texans vs Lions NFL Picks and NFL Odds
There are two ways to look at the drastic difference between the current point spread and the lookahead NFL picks which favored the Lions by a point and a half. The first option is to deem the shift an overreaction to the most recent samplings we received from each team. The counterargument is that it is simply an adjustment to where both teams have been power rated for much of the season.
I’m firmly in the camp of the latter. I believe Houston is the more talented team of the two. The Lions have failed to muster a winning record on Thanksgiving Day with fans in the stands. It’s hard to anticipate them being much better in front of an empty stadium. Deshaun Watson will shine once again in a game that will see both sides score plenty. As long as the spread stays at an even field goal or less, the Texans are the play.
Pick: Texans -3 and Over 51 (-115 and -105 respectively at Bovada Sportsbook)
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