2020 AFC Divisional Round Game
Houston Texans (10-6, 5-3 Away) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (12-4, 5-3 Home)
Date: Sunday, Jan. 12, 2019
Time: 3:05 p.m. EST
Venue: Arrowhead Stadium– Kansas City, MO
Coverage: CBS
Texans vs Chiefs Spread and Odds
Moneyline: HOU: (+315) | KC: (-435)
Spread: HOU: +9.5 (-110) | KC: -9.5 (-110)
Total: 51 – Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
Public (Spread) Betting Percentages via oddsFire: HOU: (46%) | KC: (54%)
Odds to Win AFC Championship: HOU (+1500) | KC: (+175)
Odds to Win Super Bowl LIV: HOU: (+3000) | KC: (+350)
What a Wild Card Weekend! It certainly was a memorable slate of games, with two overtime thrillers, two major upsets, three 40-year-old quarterbacks (all losing) and one unforgettable Josh Allen no-look backhand lateral while being tackled. It really was one of the great Wild Card slates in recent memory.
All that is in the past now, though, and we’re moving on to the Divisional Round for another excellent set of matchups, with each game featuring one well-deserving Wild Card team and one well-rested home favorite coming off a first-round bye. In the past decade, 30 of the 40 Divisional Round games have ended with the 1 or 2 seed moving on to their respective conference championship game, meaning the trends are certainly against these road underdogs.
In the first Sunday game, the well-rested Kansas City Chiefs host the Houston Texans, who are coming off an overtime win over the Bills. Currently, the Chiefs are the 9.5-point home favorites, according to MyBookie Sportsbook.
Let’s get down to business and analyze each team’s strengths and weaknesses as we await their approaching battle on the gridiron.
(2) Kansas City Chiefs (12-4)
The Chiefs didn’t look like a bye-worthy team for a minute there. After a 4-0 start, Kansas City proceeded to lose four out of their next six games and briefly looked like a team in danger of losing their own division. Patrick Mahomes was playing hurt and the defense was only performing against bad teams. They were always a playoff team, but it seemed for a moment that they might be an earlier playoff exit than many anticipated entering the season. Well, they got things back on track eventually, winning their final six games, including a victory in New England that would go on to earn them the tiebreaker over the capitulating Patriots. They earned the spot they’re in, but after giving some reasons for doubt, such as their 2-4 record against playoff teams, these Chiefs still have a lot to prove.
What are they good at?
This Chiefs team can score with the best of them. Although they didn’t hit the number one mark they resided in last season, KC still finished just inside the top five in terms of scoring. Reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes couldn’t approach his 2018 numbers; he was playing hurt but even still those types of numbers might be a once-in-a-lifetime occurrence (or not, who knows). Even though his touchdown numbers nearly got cut in half, falling to 26, Mahomes solidified his standing as arguably the best quarterback playing today. The man is a miracle worker who can play equally well in and out of the pocket. He can make any throw with astonishing accuracy, and he’s one of the most clutch performers in the game today. Like a few quarterbacks I’ve mentioned before this, Mahomes almost never turns the ball over, with just five interceptions on the year.
His weapons may be the best in the playoffs. Travis Kelce rolled out of bed and had his fourth-straight 1,000-yard season. He’s one of the best players in football and is on his way to the Hall of Fame. While Texans defenders are keyed on him, the Chiefs employ all the fastest guys in the league at their receiver positions, which tends to complicate matters. Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman both run sub-4.33 40 times, which has resulted in the Chiefs being possibly the top big-play offense in the NFL. Mahomes’ 15 pass plays of 40 or more yards finished second behind only Dak Prescott for top in the league, and don’t forget Mahomes only played 14 games and Hill only played 12. This team will absolutely scorch you if you aren’t ready, and few are ever ready for the pure strength, speed and talent the Chiefs have on offense.
The running game is better than it appears on paper. The team itself averaged 4.2 YPC, but that number dipped in the middle of the season when injuries forced Matt Moore, Darrell Williams and Darwin Thompson into more meaningful roles, which killed the team’s efficiency. The team’s top two runners, Damien Williams and LeSean McCoy, both rush for at least 4.5 YPC. What’s most important is that the Chiefs just don’t do it very much, with the sixth-fewest rush attempts in the league this year, which puts them right around all the worst teams in the league. But this isn’t a bad thing, because instead of passing out of desperation, they intentionally keep the ball in their best player’s hands and constantly stay on the attack, which opens up room to run when they decide to give it a go.
Defensively, the Chiefs struggle in a few areas, so I’ll be brief before getting into the nitty-gritty in the weaknesses section.
To give them credit, KC has been extremely solid at defending the pass. Against the 10th-most passing attempts in the league, the Chiefs have allowed the eighth-fewest passing yards. They also allow just the eighth-fewest touchdown passes while intercepting the fifth most passes. They’re dangerous, and the man behind it all is none other than the Honey Badger himself. Tyrann Mathieu, the All-Pro (but not Pro Bowl!?) safety, started every game and led the team in passes defended (12) and interceptions (4) while also chipping in two sacks. He’s joined by a very solid supporting class, including safety Juan Thornhill and corners Charvarius Ward and Kendall Fuller. The always-beatable Bashaud Breeland, who was tied for most penalized defensive back in the league, is the weak link the Texans will need to exploit.
Chris Jones is a nightmare on the inside. He will personally disrupt your entire gameplan and there isn’t much you can do about it. And him WITH Frank Clark? Have fun dropping back to pass. Or don’t. The two combined for 17 sacks and 34 QB hits, while batting down a combined 8 passes and forcing four fumbles. And one of the two wasn’t pulling most of the weight in those combined stats either; they both were absolute studs this season and matched each other’s achievements on a scary pass-rushing line. One concern, however, is a hamstring injury that Jones sustained this week in practice. So even with the bye, not every Chief is going to be at 100%.
Harrison Butker is currently one of the league’s most reliable kickers. The Chiefs shouldn’t be worried with the position, which is a luxury that you can really understand most when your team’s kicker can’t kick to save his life.
What are they bad at?
I mentioned Breeland before, but I have to include him here. He’s a tough player to watch on a secondary that does their job well otherwise. He’ll be good for a game-changing interference penalty at some point in this game, or he’ll just get beat for a long pass; he can do either.
The Chiefs can’t stop the run. They will get manhandled in the trenches when you are running the ball and allow your running back to rush for 4.9 yards per carry. That number ranked fourth-worst in the entire league; and their ineptitude in that area nearly cost them a bye. The Colts gave the rest of the league the blueprint for beating the Chiefs: run and never stop running, because make no mistake, they will not be able to stop you.
(4) Houston Texans (11-6)
After the comedy of errors that unfolded last Saturday in Houston in their playoff win against the Bills, the Texans did little to dispel the idea that they aren’t a team built for the playoffs. It took a miraculous comeback carried entirely on the back of Deshaun Watson, with quite a bit of help provided by an equally shaky Bills offense. The team has a history of bowing out early in the playoffs, but there is reason to believe that the Texans won’t just be a minor obstacle on the Chiefs’ playoff run.
Topping that list: the Texans already beat the Chiefs this season. They had a good gameplan going in and they took down the Chiefs in their own building in a fantastic game. But beating a team twice is hard, especially on the road, and there are a lot of reasons not to like the Texans in this game, but there’s no better resume item than a win against the team you’re about to face.
What are they good at?
Deshaun Watson is a champion at heart and he showed it against the Bills. Whether it was taking the ball himself for first downs or surviving being sandwiched by two would-be Bills tacklers to deliver a critical long completion, Watson showed up in the second half and did enough to win the Texans the game. He’s a star that has the ability to match Mahomes play for play when he’s at his best, and again, he’s the type that you can never count out of a game.
Watson was responsible for 33 total touchdowns this season, tying Lamar Jackson with seven touchdown rushes for most among quarterbacks. He’s not the most protective of the football (12 INT, 11 fumbles) but he’s a playmaker that can do it all, and can make the argument to be called a top-five quarterback in the league.
The Texans are an underrated rushing team, averaging 4.6 yards per carry, which is eighth-best in the league. Carlos Hyde proved a lot of people wrong this year, including myself, with the 1,070 yard season he had on 4.4 YPC. He showed he is durable and efficient enough to be a workhorse.
Duke Johnson, acquired in a trade before the season, looks like a steal, as he was incredibly effective when he had the ball in his hands. He wasn’t used to his full potential early on, but he started to shine in the passing game around midseason and has become one of Watson’s most trusted weapons. It’s an underrated 1-2 punch, but one worry with Hyde is that he poses no threat in the receiving game. Teams get ready for the run when he’s out there, so he isn’t always the picture of efficiency. He struggles with ball security, too (four this season, T-second-most among running backs).
DeAndre Hopkins might be the best receiver in football. He was just voted to his third-straight All Pro team and finished the season with over 104 catches and 1,165 yards. He will have the advantage over anything the Chiefs can throw at him. The Chiefs did hold him to just 55 yards in their regular season meeting, and if they can do that again, the Texans offense is going to be crippled, because Will Fuller is going into this game as a game time decision. He’s likely to play, but the severely injury-prone Fuller is going to be limited in this game, which might put a lot of pressure and attention on Hopkins.
JJ Watt is back, which may be enough to give this Texans defense a little bit of an edge. He’s a destructive force and will not be denied in making a few game changing plays. His presence will be felt one way or another, whether it’s making sacks or batting down passes, or making life easier for fellow pass rusher Whitney Mercilus, who only had two sacks in eight games when Watt was out, but got to Josh Allen once in Watt’s first game back. He could individually start making Mahomes start seeing ghosts this week.
What are they bad at?
“But Rob, you really skimped on the Texans defense in the strengths section. There surely must be more good players on that roster!”
You’re right. I could’ve mentioned solid nose tackle DJ Reader or linebackers Benardrick McKinney and Zach Cunningham, but the overall team stats make it tough to give too much individual praise. Let me rattle off where the Texans rank in some major categories:
19th in points allowed per game (24.1)
28th in yards allowed per game(388.3)
29th in passing yards allowed per game (267.2)
27th in average yards allowed per carry (4.8)
T-17th in interceptions (12)
T-26th in sacks (31)
T- 15th in forced fumbles (14)
And yes, the return of Watt is going to go a long way in solving some of the Texans’ defensive issues. But when your issues are every single thing, there is only so much one man can do. They can’t stop the pass or the run with equal incompetence, they’re extremely mediocre in turnovers, and with Watt playing in eight regular season games, they still ranked towards the cellar in sacks. These numbers really will not cut it against a healthy Patrick Mahomes and his bevy of weapons. Watt is going to need the game of his life.
I haven’t mentioned coaching up to this point for any of the four teams that I’ve previewed. This is primarily because the five teams I’d mentioned so far have standard to good coaches who aren’t going to lose games on their own. Maybe Mike Zimmer makes more than his share of questionable calls, but I’m not going to drag him for it. I am going to drag Bill O’Brien because this guy stinks. He noticeably brings the Texans’ chances of winning down in every game I see him coach. His head scratching decisions to kick field goals in the wrong moments, poorly utilize his timeouts, and make egregiously bad play calls in crunch time only become more frequent in the playoffs and I think it will hold the Texans back. Deshaun Watson taking the game into his own hands and making improvisational plays with his legs is the only reason the Texans are still in the playoffs.
Ka’imi Fairbairn isn’t an appallingly bad kicker, but he didn’t have his best season in 2019. He only made 20-of-25 field goals (80%), and he also missed five of his PAT attempts, which ties for the most of those misses in the NFL this year. The Texans are definitely losing the kicker battle in this matchup. Who knows if this will amount to anything, but the Texans have more to worry about here.
Predictions
The Chiefs offense is out of this world and the Texans can’t stop anybody. JJ Watt’s return is going to be pivotal in whether or not Houston can slow down the Chiefs’ passing attack, but even then, KC should find an advantage on the ground. The Texans can also exploit the Chiefs’ lackings at stopping the run, but the question is whether they can stay close enough to continue running the ball as much as they did in their regular season tilt. Patrick Mahomes is healthier now than he was then, so I have some doubts. If Deshaun Watson can make some magic happen and DeAndre Hopkins is as unstoppable as we know he can be, anything can happen, but I think the coaching difference and the Chiefs’ ability at slowing down quarterbacks will get Chiefs ahead early on, and they’ll take that lead into the AFC Championship
Final Score: Chiefs 38, Texans 24
What do you think? For any upset Texans or cocky Chiefs fans, I’m ready to talk about this game or any other game anytime. Just let me know on Twitter what’s on your mind about the playoffs, or about any other topic, really.
More Articles
Titans vs Ravens Betting Preview
Vikings vs 49ers Betting Preview
Fantasy Basketball Free Agent Finds
Jarrett Culver’s Brother Scores 100 Points in College Game
