In one of the more anticipated Sweet 16 matchups, we have this season’s third Tennessee vs Kentucky matchup for ultimate SEC bragging rights. Kentucky will look to improve to 3-0 over the Volunteers this year while Tennessee will look to make the Elite Eight in back-to-back seasons.
Below, we will preview this Sweet 16 college basketball game, giving the Tennessee vs Kentucky overview, trends and our expert pick! Which school will win and keep their hopes of winning the championship trophy alive?
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Tennessee vs Kentucky Prediction and Sweet 16 Expert Picks
2025 NCAA Tournament
No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers (29-7) vs. No. 3 Kentucky Wildcats (24-11)
Date: Friday, March 28, 2025
Time: 7:39 PM EST
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium — Indianapolis, IN
Coverage: TBS/TruTV
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Tennessee vs Kentucky Sweet 16 Odds
All college basketball betting odds for Tennessee vs Kentucky can be found at BetUS Sportsbook.
Moneyline: TENN: (-199) | UK: (+164)
Point Spread: TENN: -4.5 (-108) | UK: +4.5 (-112)
Total: 144.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
KenPom Rankings | Bracketology
KenPom Rankings are from KenPom.com
| Team | Rk | AdjO | AdjD | AdjT |
| Tennessee | 5 | 120.6 (17) | 89.3 (3) | 63.8 (346) |
| Kentucky | 15 | 123.7 (11) | 98.8 (46) | 71.0 (26) |
Tennessee vs Kentucky College Basketball Trends
- Tennessee is 4-1 in its last five games.
- Kentucky is 4-1 in its last five games.
- Kentucky won both meetings this season by a combined 16 points.
- In both of their previous matchups the winner scored 75 or more points.
- Tennessee is 2-8 in the Sweet 16 in school history.
- Kentucky has made it to the Elite 8 just once in their last five tournament appearances.
Tennessee vs Kentucky Prediction | Sweet 16 Expert Picks
To say the last two matchups between these teams have mirrored each other would be an understatement. In both of Kentucky’s wins, they shot exactly 50% from the field and 50% from three-point range. In fact, Kentucky took and made the same number of three-point shots in both games and took just two more shots in their second matchup. It’s truly eerie how similar both of the first two matchups between these teams were on the Kentucky side of the ball.
While one side of the argument is that Kentucky has Tennessee’s number, they have needed incredible shooting displays to win both games. For all of his flaws, with tournament success being one of them, Tennessee head coach Rick Barnes is a defensive mastermind. His teams always rank near the top defensively in the country, and they have again this year.
The formula to beat Tennessee is quite simple: shoot a ton of threes and make them at a high rate. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, it’s much harder to replicate, especially on three separate occasions. There’s an adage in coaching that still rings true: “It’s really hard to beat a team three times in a season.”
Tennessee has yet to get a game against Kentucky when both guard Zakai Ziegler and forward Chaz Lanier shoot the ball at their season averages. They will find their groove at the perfect time and Kentucky’s shots won’t fall like they did in either of their previous meetings.
For our Tennessee vs Kentucky prediction, we are picking the Tennessee Volunteers to win and move on in the NCAA Tournament.
