FlurrySports gives Christian Watson fantasy football trade analysis on why you should sell high on the Packers’ WR before NFL Week 6.
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Everybody loves the deep ball, and few things are more beloved than a wide receiver that consistently comes down with the big play. They can flip the matchup on its head in a single play and nothing is more fun to watch as a fantasy football owner. One of the receivers who embodies that the most right now is Green Bay Packers receiver Christian Watson.
This past week, for the second time in just five games, Watson fell just shy of 30 fantasy points in half-PPR formats after torching the Chicago Bears. He now has six touchdowns on the season and is clearly one of Jordan Love’s favorite targets. For as beloved and surprising as he’s been so far, now is the time to trade him away and take advantage of his inflated value.
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Sell High on Christian Watson | Fantasy Football Trade Value Week 6
In a season that has seen more injuries to big players than most seasons, healthy playmakers are a dime a dozen. Even though Watson fits that script right now, it’s still smart to trade him away. The issue with Watson is not only that he’s been injury-prone his entire career, but also that he’s been extremely volatile, which has continued this season as well.
Prior to Week 5, Christian Watson was below Chris Olave and Drake London in our fantasy football trade value calculator. Check out the FlurrySports Playbook to see where his value rises to this week! The reasoning for Watson currently being valued as WR9 makes no sense. While he has two weeks with over 29 points in half-PPR formats, he also has two weeks with under 12.5 points, and in one of those matchups he caught a touchdown.
His volatility will only rise, and he doesn’t exactly have an easy schedule moving forward either. Looking at our fantasy football strength of schedule metric, the Packers have the 15th-easiest schedule for wide receivers for the rest of the season. Most importantly, for an eight-week stretch in Weeks 8 through 15, the Packers play six of the toughest defenses for wide receivers while also having a bye week in there as well.
Christian Watson Fantasy Outlook
There is no doubt that Watson will continue to be Jordan Love’s favorite target. What that entails, however, is completely up in the air. In addition, Watson’s two biggest games came against the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears. The Vikings blitzed all day and dared the Packers to beat them over the top. While Watson did twice, that game plan will certainly not be the norm. As for the Bears, they just sat and allowed Watson to sprint right by them.
While Watson certainly deserves his share of the credit for those good performances, he averages just under 12.5 points in half-PPR formats. That’s not poor by any standards, but it’s not what you need from a player with WR1 value. With a tougher schedule on deck and few teams likely giving him as many chances to run uncovered downfield like the Vikings and Bears did, Watson’s value will certainly come back to earth.
In exchange for the “downgrade” in value, a package of Mike Evans and David Montgomery would make a ton of sense. Nobody’s giving Evans credit for how good he’s been lately. Even if we throw out his “outlier” performance in Week 5, he still averaged just under 10.5 points per week. That’s just two points less than Christian Watson, who’s being treated as WR1. He ranks tied for sixth amongst all receivers in red zone opportunities, which was tied with Christian Watson. (per our Paydirt tool), it’s hard to see an avenue where Evans doesn’t continue to thrive in this high-powered San Francisco 49ers offense.
As for David Montgomery, his stock has never been lower, which is exactly why it’s the perfect time to buy him. With a 42.9% goal line share and a 44.4% opening drive share, there is little doubt that Montgomery is a vital part of this Houston Texans offense. With Houston in a slump right now offensively, the only direction for Houston and Montgomery is up.
Like with anything, trades are always a gamble. With that being said, there’s little doubt that Mike Evans and Christian Watson won’t be all that far off each other when all is said and done this season. Seeing that you can pick up a solid piece like Montgomery in return for what could very well be a wash, the time is now to pull the trigger.
