NFL Free Agency is nearly here! This offseason is expected to be filled with a lot of surprises as well as a scenic change for one of the NFL’s most polarizing quarterbacks — Russell Wilson.
Wilson headlined the NFL offseason in March of 2022 when his former team, the Seattle Seahawks, traded him to the Denver Broncos for a massive haul. Details of the Russell Wilson trade below:
Russell Wilson Trade Details
| Seahawks Receive: | Broncos Receive: |
|---|---|
| QB- Drew Lock | QB- Russell Wilson |
| TE- Noah Fant | 2022 4th Round Pick- (DL- Eyioma Uwazurike) |
| DL-Shelby Harris | |
| 2022 1st Round Pick- (OT- Charles Cross) | |
| 2022 2nd Round Pick- (OLB- Boye Mafe) | |
| 2022 5th Round Pick- (OLB- Tyreke Smith) | |
| 2023 1st Round Pick- (CB- Devon Witherspoon) | |
| 2023 2nd Round Pick- (EDGE- Derrick Hall) |
It’s easy to look back at this trade and wonder why Denver would make this move in the first place. But at the time, this trade looked like a win-win for both teams considering Wilson was still viewed as a top QB, and the Seahawks were looking to hit the reset button. It turned out to be a disastrous trade for the Broncos, as the Russell Wilson they got was not the same guy that he was in Seattle. On the flip side, Seattle won the trade by drafting two Pro Bowl-level players with the first-round picks they received — Charles Cross and Devon Witherspoon.
Sending the Seahawks five draft picks and three players is not even the worst part of the trade. What makes it one of the worst trades in NFL history is that the Broncos signed Wilson to a five-year, $245M contract extension that was scheduled to run through 2028.
What Went Wrong in Denver?
Russell Wilson seemed to be a shell of what he once was once he arrived in Denver. He looked a lot slower when scrambling around and seemed to not have the playmaking ability that we were accustomed to seeing when he was in Seattle. He had arguably the worst season of his career in 2022, after leading the team to five wins, which resulted in head coach Nathaniel Hackett getting fired. This led to the Broncos hiring Sean Payton to be the next head coach of the team.
Payton, who has a history of getting the most out of quarterbacks, seemed to be a bad match with Wilson from the start. Sean Payton is considered one of the best offensive minds in the sport after his success with future Hall of Fame QB Drew Brees during his time in New Orleans. Payton runs a quick passing game offense that requires the quarterback to make the correct read and deliver the football on time. This scheme is the opposite of what Wilson’s skills bring to the table – being more of an adlibber who creates plays outside of the pocket. Payton and Wilson’s relationship always seemed off, especially after the sideline incident that happened in Week 15 vs Detroit where Payton was seen screaming at Wilson on the sideline.
The divorce between Wilson and Payton seemed inevitable after he was benched for Jarrett Stidham during the last two weeks of the season. The Broncos made it official this week when they announced that they would be cutting Wilson after March 13th.
Russell Wilson Contract Value
What makes the Wilson situation so bad for the Broncos is they now have to take a $85M dead cap hit over the next two seasons, which is the largest dead cap hit in NFL history. The language in Wilson’s contract states that he can’t be paid anything less than $39M this season. Therefore, Wilson is getting paid that money no matter what team signs him.
Because of this, the new Russell Wilson contract with his new team will likely be a veteran minimum, at $1.2M, forcing the Broncos to pay the offsetting amount. Of course, this greatly helps his new team, allowing them to spend elsewhere while also having a Super Bowl-winning quarterback.
With all of that in mind, these are the three most likely Russell Wilson free agent destinations.
Russell Wilson Free Agency Destinations
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers are a team that has offensive weapons but has lacked consistent play from the quarterback position. Under coach Mike Tomlin, the team will have a great defense as they always seem to have. If they can just get some experience and stability at quarterback, the team is very capable of winning 10-11 games in 2024. I feel that Wilson will bring that to the table and help rejuvenate an offense that was lackluster under former OC Matt Canada.
One thing that Wilson has shown he is still capable of doing is throwing a great deep ball. The Steelers have two great deep-threat receivers, George Pickens and Diontae Johnson, that should mesh well with Wilson’s play style. The duo of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren gives the team a solid 1-2 punch at the running back position, and TE Pat Freiermuth has proven to be a productive player when able to stay healthy. It has been reported that Wilson and the Steelers have mutual interest and met with each other ahead of 2024 NFL Free Agency. I think this is the most likely landing spot for Wilson as well as the best fit for him.
Atlanta Falcons
Like the Steelers, the Atlanta Falcons have great offensive weapons and are desperate for help at quarterback. The Falcons just hired Raheem Morris from the Los Angeles Rams to be their head coach. Morris brought Zac Robinson with him from LA to be his offensive coordinator in Atlanta. Robinson branches off of the Shanahan/McVay tree and will run an offensive scheme that is similar to what those guys run.
I think Wilson would fit into this scheme very well as it is predicated on running the football to establish the play-action passing game. The Falcons are loaded at running back with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. And have some nice receiving options that include wide receiver Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts. Not to mention that the NFC South is considered one of the weaker divisions in the NFL. If the Falcons sign Wilson, I believe they would be the heavy favorite to win the division.
Las Vegas Raiders
How funny would it be if Russell Wilson signed with the Broncos’ AFC West rival, the Las Vegas Raiders? This would create some drama for sure as Wilson would likely be playing for the minimum in Vegas while making their division rivals pay his giant salary. Although it is unclear whether free agent RB Josh Jacobs will return, the Raiders still have one of the best wide receivers in the game in Davante Adams. Jakobi Myers is also a solid receiver who caught eight touchdowns in 2023.
The Raiders’ defense played well down the stretch last season and should be solid again this season. It will be difficult for them to make the playoffs in the AFC, especially having to play the Broncos, Chiefs and Chargers twice a year. But the Raiders managed to win games down the stretch including a 63-14 win over the Chargers and a huge road win on Christmas Day against the Chiefs. Wilson could bring some experience to the position that Aidan O’Connell cannot do. I think that Wilson and the Raiders are sort of an odd fit but can see why Wilson would want to sign with them.
