Snap counts and targets in the NFL can give us a good barometer of which players will get in on the play-making action. This is similar to usage and minutes in the NBA. This is worth taking a look at for our NFL DFS lineups and can help us find some safer players, as well as some that may draw some extra snaps, touches, and targets.
Safe Plays
Top Tier
Alvin Kamara – Saints – $9500 DK, $8700 FD – Kamara is averaging 52 snaps per game. This accounts for 79.2% of the total team snaps. During his time on the field, he has carried the ball 37 times (15 in the redzone), and has caught 30 of his 38 targets. I have his floor set at 23.69 (DraftKings) and 16.87 (FanDuel), which is the highest of any running back on the board this week. The Giants are giving up 137.5 rushing yards per game and he should enjoy a nice fantasy day in a game that has an over/under of 50 points and a team total of 26.75. Vegas has the spread in this game at NO -3.5, so I fully expect both teams to trade blows and light up the scoreboard. His risk is minimal this week, and he is far and away my safest RB play.
Mid-Value
Melvin Gordon – Chargers – $7400 DK, $8400 FD – Kamara is averaging 46 snaps per game. This accounts for 70.5% of the total team snaps. He has carried the ball 39 times (6 in the redzone), and has caught 17 of his 24 targets. I have his floor set at 17.96 (DraftKings) and 14.14 (FanDuel). While this is not the highest on the board, I still like his matchup more than Gurley’s. The Niners are giving up 107 rushing yards per game and he should enjoy a nice fantasy day in a game that has an over/under of 46.5 points and a team total of 28.5 points. Vegas has the spread in this game at LAC -10.5 at home versus a backup quarterback in CJ Beathard. Gordon makes for a perfect game flow pairing with his D/ST in your cash game lineups.
Ezekiel Elliott – Cowboys – $7700 DK, $8200 FD – Elliott is averaging 56 snaps per game. This accounts for 93.2% of the total team snaps. Out of his time on the field he has carried the ball 48 times (6 in the redzone), and has caught 11 of his 18 targets. I have his floor set at 18.56 (DraftKings) and 15.39 (FanDuel). The Lions are giving up 179.5 rushing yards per game and I fully expect Zeke to rumble forth in this one. Vegas has an over/under of 43.5 points and a team total of 23.25. Vegas has the spread in this game at DAL -3, therefore, I expect both teams to pound the football in a lower scoring affair. Zeke should get plenty of carries and even some goal-line looks.
Risky/Upside
Todd Gurley – Rams – $9200 DK, $9300 FD – The touches will be there, as Gurley is averaging 57 snaps per game. This accounts for 80% of the total team snaps. He has carried the ball 62 times (18 in the redzone), and has caught 11 of his 14 targets. It’s just a tough matchup this week for him. I have his floor set at 19.55 (DraftKings) and 15.74 (FanDuel). The Vikings are only surrendering 94 rushing yards per game. Most importantly, it might be tougher than normal sledding for Gurley. Vegas has an over/under of 49.5 points and a team total of 28 points. Vegas has the spread in this game at LAR -6.5, so Gurley should enjoy some late game clock chewing and extra carries. This will further pad his floor and he will see extra dump off passes as the Rams put this one to bed. He might see suppressed ownership due to the matchup versus Minnesota, which makes him a great GPP play. Beware though, the Vikings are most-likely chomping at the bit to get back out there and shut down an offense.
Low Salary Lock
Carlos Hyde – Browns – $4800 DK, $6500 FD – Hyde is averaging 42 snaps per game. This accounts for 55.2% of the total team snaps. He has carried the ball 61 times (8 in the redzone), and has caught 4 of his 6 targets. I have his floor set at 12.73 (DraftKings) and 9.90 (FanDuel). The Raiders are giving up 154 rushing yards per game and I expect the Browns to lean on Hyde to give Baker Mayfield a safety blanket in his first NFL start. Vegas has an over/under of 45 points and a team total of 21.25. Vegas has the spread in this game at OAK -2.5. I believe Cleveland will pull this one out and Hyde will enjoy another valuable day in the stat lines.
As a gift to you for making it through this article, here is a link to my NFL DFS projections
Please give me a follow on twitter if you would. @Mr_Sconnie.
Related Articles
Week 4 Fantasy Football Rankings
Hot-Hand Fallacy & Recency Bias Trends the Past 3 Years: QBs and RBs
