In fantasy football, we get fixated on total points at the end of the year. But MOST leagues are head to head on a weekly basis. That makes total points less important than consistent performance. We also want guys who can carry our team with a great week. The following RB consistency rankings aim to give you another tool for deciding between players in your fantasy draft. This is just one of many tools, so check out the rest of our Fantasy Football Draft Kit.
Rationale- The only thing that matters is the last two years worth of fantasy football data. Since injuries do happen during games that can skew weekly results, a full game at the RB position for my analysis is 20 snaps taken. This takes into account the new coaching philosophy in the NFL of spreading out the snap counts among several running backs. Percentage rankings for top-24 (RB2), top-12 (RB1) and top-5 weeks will be presented along with a statistical rating.
Player Top-24%
David Johnson 106.7
Ezekiel Elliott 100.0
Le’Veon Bell 96.3
Alvin Kamara 92.3
Mike Gillislee 91.7
Melvin Gordon 85.7
Leonard Fournette 84.6
Dalvin Cook 75.0
C.J. Prosise 75.0
Doug Martin 75.0
LeSean McCoy 73.3
Jordan Howard 73.3
LeGarrette Blount 72.0
Todd Gurley 71.0
Tevin Coleman 70.8
Rex Burkhead 70.0
Marshawn Lynch 69.2
Devonta Freeman 69.0
Kareem Hunt 66.7
Derrick Henry 66.7
Kenyan Drake 63.6
Jamaal Williams 62.5
Frank Gore 62.5
Carlos Hyde 62.1
Lamar Miller 62.1
Jeremy Hill 61.5
Jay Ajayi 60.0
Terrance West 60.0
Tarik Cohen 57.1
Matt Breida 57.1
Dion Lewis 56.3
Latavius Murray 56.0
C.J. Anderson 54.5
Joe Mixon 54.5
Mark Ingram 53.3
Aaron Jones 50.0
Matt Jones 50.0
Rob Kelley 50.0
Marlon Mack 50.0
Rod Smith 50.0
Christian McCaffrey 50.0
Chris Ivory 50.0
Jacquizz Rodgers 50.0
Chris Carson 50.0
Kenneth Dixon 50.0
Player Top-12%
Ezekiel Elliott 83.3
David Johnson 80.0
Alvin Kamara 76.9
Le’Veon Bell 70.4
Melvin Gordon 57.1
LeSean McCoy 53.3
Kareem Hunt 53.3
Todd Gurley 51.6
Dalvin Cook 50.0
C.J. Prosise 50.0
Latavius Murray 48.0
Derrick Henry 46.7
Leonard Fournette 46.2
Mark Ingram 40.0
Alex Collins 38.5
Devonta Freeman 37.9
Jamaal Williams 37.5
Kenyan Drake 36.4
Carlos Hyde 34.5
Mike Gillislee 33.3
Jordan Howard 33.3
Aaron Jones 33.3
Matt Jones 33.3
Rob Kelley 33.3
Ty Montgomery 33.3
Rex Burkhead 30.0
Player Top-5%
David Johnson 53.3
Alvin Kamara 38.5
Ezekiel Elliott 37.5
Le’Veon Bell 33.3
Aaron Jones 33.3
Melvin Gordon 28.6
LeSean McCoy 26.7
Kareem Hunt 26.7
Todd Gurley 25.8
Dalvin Cook 25.0
Austin Ekeler 25.0
Mark Ingram 23.3
Rex Burkhead 20.0
Devonta Freeman 17.2
Lamar Miller 17.2
Jordan Howard 16.7
Matt Jones 16.7
Rod Smith 16.7
Latavius Murray 16.0
Jerick McKinnon 16.0
Leonard Fournette 15.4
Jeremy Hill 15.4
FlurrySports Player Rating
David Johnson 85.3
Ezekiel Elliott 75.8
Alvin Kamara 72.3
LeVeon Bell 67.4
Melvin Gordon 57.1
LeSean McCoy 52.0
Kareem Hunt 50.7
Todd Gurley 50.3
Dalvin Cook 50.0
Leonard Fournette 44.6
Aaron Jones 43.3
Mark Ingram 40.7
Latavius Murray 40.0
Devonta Freeman 39.3
Rex Burkhead 38.0
Jordan Howard 38.0
Mike Gillislee 36.7
Jamaal Williams 35.0
C.J. Prosise 35.0
Matt Jones 33.3
Tevin Coleman 33.3
Kenyan Drake 32.7
Lamar Miller 32.4
Carlos Hyde 32.4
Derrick Henry 32.0
LeGarrette Blount 31.2
Jeremy Hill 30.8
Ty Montgomery 30.7
C.J. Anderson 30.0
Alex Collins 29.2
Rob Kelley 28.3
Marshawn Lynch 27.7
Marlon Mack 27.5
Jay Ajayi 27.2
Bilal Powell 26.7
Dion Lewis 26.3
Tarik Cohen 25.7
Adrian Peterson 25.0
Jerick McKinnon 24.0
Doug Martin 21.7
Christian McCaffrey 21.3
Samaje Perine 20.0
Joe Mixon 20.0
Chris Thompson 20.0
Isaiah Crowell 20.0
What Have We Learned?
Forecasting the future based on the past is difficult, which is why in horse racing, you do not see the favorite win more than 33% of the time. Likewise with running backs, when we are trying to forecast future performance, we need to take the past as just a snapshot. Plans for running backs change and running backs often show huge performance leaps from rookie to second year. But once a running back has enough data to show what he can or can’t do, we should believe the statistics and not the hype.
-David Johnson is a beast and worthy of consideration as the top running back in fantasy football this season. He hit top-24 in a game with less than 20 snaps, which is why you see a percentage of greater than 100.
-In non-PPR leagues, McCaffrey and McKinnon are being drafted much too early. At their ADP, I would prefer less risk to go with my reward potential.
-Zeke and Bell are also sure things to draft early.
-Kamara is worthy of RB5 ADP.
-Jamaal Williams ADP87/RB36 and Aaron Jones ADP113/RB41 are great selections late in every draft.
-Jordan Howard put up great numbers in a lousy offense and is still being drafted as RB15, which makes him a great value play.
-Statistics back up the running back Myth that after the top 10-15, running backs in the field gets very muddied.
