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Purdue vs Michigan Prediction, Odds and College Football Betting Picks for Big Ten Championship Game

The Michigan Wolverines’ bid for a second straight Big Ten Championship is set to culminate on Saturday night with a matchup against the Purdue Boilermakers. Given Michigan’s unbeaten status, it’s no surprise to find that the majority of college football betting picks are backing the Wolverines as a hefty favorite. Meanwhile, Purdue is essentially playing with house money in this matchup. Can the Boilermakers overcome the lopsided Purdue vs Michigan odds and earn an unlikely trip to the Rose Bowl?

The following game preview provides the college football betting odds, trends and FEI Index ratings before sharing our official Purdue vs Michigan prediction for the Big Ten Championship Game.

Purdue vs Michigan Prediction | College Football Betting Picks

2022 Big Ten Championship Game
Purdue Boilermakers (8-4, 6-3 Big Ten) vs. Michigan Wolverines (12-0, 9-0 Big Ten)
Date: Saturday, December 3, 2022
Time: 8 PM EST
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium — Indianapolis, IN
Coverage: FOX

The chances of Purdue even reaching the Big Ten Championship Game were quite bleak just three weeks ago. However, an upset victory over Illinois the following week kicked off a three-game winning streak to end the regular season. With a veteran roster and a potent passing attack, Purdue is hardly a pushover. Senior quarterback Aidan O’Connell is certainly capable of putting together the all-time performance needed to compete.

Michigan was able to move past an emotional win over rival Ohio State to dominate Iowa in last year’s Big Ten title game. However, Purdue sets up as a much more formidable offensive opponent for Jim Harbaugh’s squad in Saturday’s contest. Michigan’s offensive line was able to impose its will all season long. Even without star running back Blake Corum, the Wolverines still bludgeoned Ohio State on the ground last week. Bettors can expect a heavy dose of Donovan Edwards on Saturday night to complement QB, J.J. McCarthy.

J.J. McCarthy Purdue vs Michigan prediction odds college football betting picks Big Ten Championship Game
Credit: AP Photo/Paul Sancya

Purdue vs Michigan College Football Betting Picks and Odds

All college football betting odds for Purdue vs Michigan can be found at Bovada Sportsbook.

Moneyline: PUR: (+525) | MICH: (-800)
Point Spread: PUR: +16 (-110) | MICH: -16 (-110)
Total: 53 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

College Football FEI Ratings

The following table shares the Fremeau Efficiency Index rankings for both teams involved in this Big Ten Championship Game matchup. The purpose of the FEI ratings is to represent the per-possession scoring advantage that a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. The rankings for offense and defense are out of 131 total FBS-level teams.

Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) ratings are froFootball Outsiders

TeamOverall FEI (Rk)OFEI (Rk)DFEI (Rk)
Purdue.29 (40).47 (39).17 (45)
Michigan1.26 (2)1.37 (9)1.09 (4)
  • Boilermakers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after passing for more than 280 yards in their previous game.
  • Over the last ten years, the Boilermakers are 17-8 ATS when playing as a betting underdog of more than 14 points.
  • Seven of the Boilermakers’ last eight games against teams with a winning record have gone OVER the total.
  • Wolverines are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games played in the month of December.
  • The UNDER is 8-1-1 in the Wolverines’ last ten games when playing as a betting favorite of more than seven points.
  • Six of the Wolverines’ last seven games following an ATS win have gone UNDER the total.
  • Wolverines are 3-0 both straight up and ATS in their last three head-to-head meetings against the Boilermakers.

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Purdue vs Michigan Prediction | College Football Betting Picks

Record and resume-wise, Purdue falls well short of Michigan coming into the conference title game. However, the Boilermakers are not a team to be taken lightly. Purdue nearly knocked off another formidable Big Ten team in Penn State all the way back in Week 1 of the season. The key factor in deciding which side covers the Purdue vs Michigan odds could be the battle in the trenches.

Offensively, Purdue will need to hold off the Wolverines’ vaunted pass rush so that Aidan O’Connell can push the ball down the field. The Boilermakers have struggled to run the ball all season long. That trend will undoubtedly continue against a Michigan front seven that allowed only 84.8 rushing yards per game to opponents, the fewest of any FBS team.

Meanwhile, on defense, Purdue will need to somehow prevent the Wolverines’ power running game from completely taking over. Michigan will be without star running back Blake Corum due to a season-ending knee injury. However, Donovan Edwards proved to be more than capable of shouldering the load with a 216-yard effort last week against Ohio State.

For the Boilermakers to have a shot at pulling off the upset, the defense will need to force J.J. McCarthy to beat them through the air. When the passing attack is simply a compliment to the run game, Michigan thrives. Making the Wolverines get out of their comfort zone will be critical. It is worth noting that Jeff Brohm has had a knack for getting the best out of his players against elite teams in the past. Purdue is 3-0 against teams ranked in the top 5 under Brohm with two of those wins coming just last year.

PURDUE COVERS will be our official college football betting Purdue vs Michigan prediction for the Big Ten Championship Game.

For what it’s worth, the ESPN Matchup Predictor gives Michigan an 89.0% chance to win this game outright.

Bet: Purdue +16 (-110 at Bovada Sportsbook)

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