Week 9’s Thursday Night Football matchup pits a pair of teams looking to rebound from disappointing losses. In a bit of an odd caveat to that, the visiting Green Bay Packers have a much more positive outlook for the remainder of the 2020 season than the host San Francisco 49ers. Despite COVID-19’s infiltration of the Packers’ locker room, the latest updates from the NFL suggest that the game will go on as scheduled. The NFL betting odds and expert NFL picks have been heavily in favor of the road team.
This betting preview contains the NFL odds, key betting trends, prop bets, and best NFL picks for Packers vs 49ers on Thursday Night Football.
NFL Odds, NFL Picks and NFL Props | Packers vs 49ers
Packers vs 49ers Game Info
Green Bay Packers (5-2, 3-1 Away) vs. San Francisco 49ers (4-4, 1-3 Home)
Date: Thursday, Nov. 5, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. EST
Venue: Levi’s Stadium — Santa Clara, CA
Coverage: FOX, NFL Network
Attendance: No fans will be allowed to attend.
Packers vs 49ers NFL Odds
All odds courtesy of Bovada Sportsbook
Opening Lines: 49ers -1; O/U 51
Moneyline: GB: (-240) | SF: (+200)
Spread: GB: -5.5 (-110) | SF: +5.5 (-110)
Total: 50 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
Packers vs 49ers Overview
The Packers suffered a setback at home this past weekend to the Minnesota Vikings despite the NFL odds projecting them as touchdown favorites. Green Bay’s inability to finish tackles defensively was on full display more than once as Vikings running back Dalvin Cook had a monster day with 4 touchdowns. The Packers do catch a bit of a break in that they won’t have to worry about tackling star 49ers tight end George Kittle after he was ruled out for eight weeks due to a broken foot.
A combination of excellent play by the Vikings defensive front and windy conditions at Lambeau Field also prevented Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay passing offense from ever getting into a groove. With A.J. Dillon testing positive for the coronavirus, both he and fellow running back Jamaal Williams will be unavailable Thursday night thanks to the NFL’s contact-tracing protocols. Aaron Jones has missed each of Green Bay’s last two games due to injury. Whether or not he will be ready for Thursday remains to be seen, but Green Bay may find themselves leaning on Tyler Ervin in the backfield. Lack of running back depth makes backing the Packers as one of this week’s NFL picks a tricky task.
While the Packers have COVID concerns, the 49ers continue to be marred with injuries. After back-to-back convincing wins that made fans and bettors alike wonder if San Francisco was back to their winning ways of a season ago, a horrendous showing against the division-rival Seattle Seahawks dampened expectations greatly and the NFL odds for this game have shifted as a result. Complicating the loss on the scoreboard was the loss of both Kittle and quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo for the foreseeable future to injuries. At this point, you could field an entire team from just the players San Francisco has lost to injury.
Nick Mullens will get the start at quarterback for the 49ers on Thursday night. This is likely one of the reasons why the NFL odds and NFL picks have rushed to back the Packers in this spot. He played well in relief of Garoppolo on Sunday, albeit in garbage time. If things continue trending as they have, Mullens will again be operating with Brandon Aiyuk and Kendrick Bourne as his top options. Defensively, the 49ers may once again be without safety Jaquiski Tartt as they try to contain Rodgers and Davante Adams. The team also traded linebacker Kwon Alexander to the New Orleans Saints on Monday.
Packers vs 49ers Betting Trends
- Packers 2020 Betting Trends: 5-2 ATS; 4-3 to the Over
- 49ers 2020 Betting Trends: 4-4 ATS; 4-4 to the Over
- The Packers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games following a loss.
- The 49ers are 3-0 ATS in their last three head-to-head meetings with the Packers.
- The 49ers have gone 6-2 straight up and 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight head-to-head meetings against the Packers.
Packers vs 49ers Stats
- Green Bay has averaged 31.3 points per game (PPG) this season (No. 3 in the NFL)
- Green Bay has surrendered 26.7 PPG this season (No. 20 in the NFL)
- San Francisco has averaged 26.0 PPG this season (No. 15 in the NFL)
- San Francisco has surrendered 21.6 PPG this season (No. 10 in the NFL)
Monkey Knife Fight NFL Props
Monkey Knife Fight is a DFS site unlike DraftKings or FanDuel. Instead, the contests feature props to play, with varying multipliers for each contest. Unlike the aforementioned sites, you are only competing with yourself on MKF, and you do not need to worry about annoying salary caps.
Monkey Knife Fight has several great NFL props for both Thursday Night Football and the entire Week 9 slate. Here is one of my favorites for the Packers vs 49ers game.
If the Packers are going to win Thursday’s game, like both I and the NFL odds expect them to, this likely means that the 49ers will be playing from behind and Nick Mullens will be forced to air it out. 56.5 passing yards is a huge advantage right out of the gate, so I’ll opt to take Mullens over Rodgers in that matchup. Brandon Aiyuk is getting a healthy 19.5-yard cushion in his own right against Davante Adams, but I’ll trust the more reliable Packers star in this matchup. His per-game target share is simply too great to bet against, even though his average yards per catch is not always as overwhelming.
Finally, I like Kendrick Bourne to have a strong follow-up performance to the eight receptions and 81 yards he had last week. Bourne notably did most of his damage against Seattle after Mullens replaced an injured Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback and I like the two to connect often once again on Thursday night.
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Packers vs 49ers NFL Picks and NFL Odds
The point spread NFL odds for this game has been on the move since opening with the 49ers as a narrow 1-point home favorite. Of course, the game was taken off the betting market entirely as the Packers’ COVID-19 situation played out. At the time of this writing, 81% of tickets were on the road favorite.
In a way, the market shift on this game is eerily similar to the 49ers’ game against the Los Angeles Rams three weeks ago. After opening as 3-point favorites, the line swung a full 6 points against San Francisco, only to see the market-created home dog win outright. I was on the Niners in a buy-low spot in that game, but I am far more hesitant to recommend a similar approach for Thursday’s game given the injuries. Jimmy Garoppolo may not be a game-changing quarterback, but since acquiring him, the 49ers are 24-9 when he plays (including postseason) and just 4-11 when he doesn’t.
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have been dominant coming off of a loss, with an 8-0 ATS record the last eight times they’ve found themselves in the scenario. I would rather lay 5.5 Green Bay than back Nick Mullens and the 49ers in this spot. That sentiment would change though if this game continues to tick up to 6.5 or 7. Given the number of offensive players on both teams that could wind up missing this game along with both defenses looking to rebound after shaky Week 8 outings, I smell a bit of a lower scoring affair than most might expect. With the total moving just one point to the Under relative to opening NFL odds, the value lies there more than the spread at this juncture.
Picks: Under 50 Total Points (-110 at Bovada Sportsbook)
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