In Week 17, the main DraftKings slate features 15 games and in order to help navigate your roster options, I’ll provide some data points for a few players at each position that have the potential to return value over their salary implied totals.
It probably goes without saying, but if you are entering Cash contests on DraftKings (or any other DFS website) this week, not only is it important to know which players and teams have positive matchups, it’s also important to be aware of which teams are fully motivated to play and win.
To help sort that out, you can check out all the various playoff scenarios over on NFL.com. However, here is a list of teams that still have potential playoff berths or home-field advantage on the line this week:
NFC
Los Angeles Rams
Chicago Bears
Minnesota Vikings
Philadelphia Eagles
AFC
Kansas City Chiefs
New England Patriots
Houston Texans
Baltimore Ravens
Los Angeles Chargers
Indianapolis Colts
Tennessee Titans
Pittsburgh Steelers
While players on the teams listed above can be used in both GPP and Cash contests, in GPPs it might also be worthwhile to potentially target players on teams that don’t technically have anything to play for other than pride. I’m guessing that there will be a lot of GPP entries this week that will avoid teams like Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and Green Bay for fear of not getting complete games. If you can stomach the risk, this might be an opportunity to get a return on value at reduced ownership levels.
Long story short, depending on what type of contest you are in, ask yourself what the team’s motivation would be to actually rest a player and then make your roster decisions based on what you believe will happen.
Before reviewing some of the possible roster options for this Sunday, just a couple of quick notes beforehand.
All data and statistics included in this article are provided courtesy of FantasyData.com. All points allowed, points scored, and pricing is based on DraftKings (DK) data. In addition, all positional rankings and rankings for points allowed to each position is based on a points per game basis.
With that bit of housekeeping out of the way, let’s take a look at some of the fantasy relevant wide receivers on Sunday.
Robert Woods, $6900 (WR13)
Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco – Game Total 48.5 (LAR –10)
If you are in the market for a mid-priced receiving option on Sunday, you might want to take a look at Robert Woods. The Rams have clinched a playoff berth, but they need to win against San Francisco to secure a first-round bye and home field advantage in the first round of the playoffs. As a result, they will be motivated to take care of business against the 49ers.
On the season, Woods is averaging 5.6 receptions on 8.5 targets, 79.7 receiving yards, 0.4 receiving touchdowns, and 18.0 DK points per game. In addition, over the past five weeks he has received a total of 48 targets (9.6 per game) and has been the Rams most consistent pass catcher over the course of the year. Since Cooper Kupp was injured, Woods has primarily been working out of the slot which should help him avoid coverage by Richard Sherman.
At present, the 49ers are allowing the 7th most DK points to opposing wide receivers at 39.2 per game. They have allowed thirteen opposing wide receivers to score 17.0 or more DK points and have been particularly prone to getting burned by receivers out of the slot position. Notable wide receiver performances against the 49ers this season includes Adam Thielen (19.2), Golden Tate (21.8) and Kenny Golladay (20.9), Sammy Watkins (18.5), Davante Adams (38.2), Larry Fitzgerald (29.2), Odell Beckham Jr. (23.3), Mike Evans (20.6), Jaron Brown (21.7), and Doug Baldwin (23.7).
In their first meeting in Week 7, Woods caught 5 of 7 targets for 78 yards, rushed 1 time for 6 yards, and scored 13.4 DK points.
Adam Thielen, $7400 (WR3)
Minnesota vs Chicago – Game Total 40.5 (MIN -4.5)
On Sunday, the Vikings can earn a playoff spot by beating the Chicago Bears and metaphorically hold their fate in their own hands. On the flip side of the coin, the Bears can improve their playoff position by beating the Vikings in conjunction with a loss by the Rams. Needless to say, both teams have something to play for in this game.
On the season, Thielen is averaging 7.3 receptions, 10.1 targets, 89.0 receiving yards, 0.6 receiving touchdowns, and 21.9 DK points per game. Although Thielen started out the season on a tear, he has been eerily quiet the past four weeks and as a result, his priced has dropped all the way down to $7400. Perhaps it has been due to Head Coach Mike Zimmer’s preference to emphasize the run game or simply game script and matchups, but in a must win situation for both teams, Thielen could be in store for more work and some positive regression on Sunday.
While the Bears defense has certainly been solid this year, they are allowing the 13th most points DK points to wide receivers this season at 38.3 per game. In addition, they have allowed at least one receiver to score 16.0 or more DK points in ten of their fifteen games. Other wide receivers that have had productive outings against the Bears this year includes Randall Cobb (32.2), DeSean Jackson (19.2), Albert Wilson (36.0), Kenny Golladay (19.8), Stefon Diggs (34.6), and Davante Adams (24.9).
In their first meeting in Week 11, Thielen caught 7 balls on 12 targets for 66 yards and scored 15.6 DK points. If he receives that kind of volume again this Sunday and can also find the end zone, he could easily surpass his Week 11 total.
Kenny Golladay, $6600 (WR24)
Detroit @ Green Bay – Game Total 44.5 (GB -7.5)
This game between the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers doesn’t have any implications on the upcoming playoffs. However, interim Head Coach Joe Philbin stated that the Packers would continue to play their healthy players and I haven’t seen anything to suggest that Detroit will do anything different. As a result, it appears that both teams will play out the season in a competitive manner.
Simply put, playing Golladay this week is about two things – volume and matchup. This season, Golladay is averaging 4.7 receptions, 7.9 targets, 70.9 receiving yards, 0.33 touchdowns, and 14.4 DK points per game. However, over the past seven weeks with Golden Tate in Philadelphia and Marvin Jones lost to injury, those numbers have jumped to 5.3 receptions, 10.1 targets, 77.1 receiving yards, 0.29 touchdowns, and 15.6 DK points per game. Last week against Minnesota (which was also a game in which Detroit had nothing to play for), Golladay received a total of 15 targets. Unfortunately, he was only able to covert those into 6 receptions for 58 yards and 11.8 DK points, but a matchup against the Packers in Week 17 could yield better results.
Over the first fifteen games, the Packers are allowing the 4th most DK points to opposing wide receivers at 40.4 per game. Last week, they were torched by Robby Anderson for 9 receptions on 13 targets, 140 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, and 32.0 DK points. In addition to last week’s game by Anderson, nine other wide receivers have scored 19.0 or more DK points against the Packers this season. Some of the more notable performances from this group includes Stefon Diggs (38.9 and 22.9), Adam Thielen (34.1 and 29.5), Marquise Goodwin (32.1), Josh Gordon (27.0), and Julio Jones (33.6).
In the Lions first matchup against the Packers in Week 5, Golladay led the Lions in receiving and caught 4 passes on 9 targets for 98 yards, 1 touchdown, and 19.8 DK points.
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