PHI @ NO – GAME TOTAL 56 (NO -8)
This contest between the Philadelphia Eagles and New Orleans Saints features not only the highest implied Vegas point total on DraftKings’ featured 10-game slate, but it’s one of only two games featuring an over/under of more than 50 points. Even though the Eagles come into this contest as 8-point road underdogs, there are plenty of fantasy options to consider in this game.
Due to the positive matchups on both sides, particularly in the passing game, there are a number of players that can be used to create a variety of roster combinations. What follows will hopefully help you comb through some of the data to make solid lineup selections.
Before reviewing the possible fantasy options in this game, just a couple of quick notes beforehand.
All data and statistics included in this article are provided courtesy of FantasyData.com. All points allowed, points scored, and pricing is based on DraftKings (DK) data. In addition, all positional rankings and rankings for points allowed to each position is based on a points per game basis.
With that bit of housekeeping out of the way, let’s take a look at some of the fantasy relevant players in this matchup.
QUARTERBACKS
DraftKings Points Allowed to QBs –NO 26.7 (2nd); PHI 20.8 (10th)
Philadelphia: Carson Wentz, $6300 (QB10)
Coming into this game, Carson Wentz is the second highest priced quarterback on the DraftKings featured 10-game slate at $6300 and is ranked 10th at the position with an average of 23.0 DK points per game.
Since returning from his ACL injury in Week 3, Wentz has completed 71.2 percent of his passes and has averaged 27.3 completions, 38.4 attempts, 306.9 passing yards, 2.1 touchdown passes, and 0.4 interceptions per game. Other than his first game back against Indianapolis, in which he only scored 13.2 DK points, Wentz has thrown at least 2 TDs and scored 22.7 or more DK points in each of the past six contests. In 2018, he has actually been better on the road where he has averaged 25.0 DK points compared to 21.5 at home.
Unfortunately, the Eagles poor record has somewhat overshadowed Wentz’s play so far this season. When you compare the first seven games Wentz played in 2017 to the first seven this year, on average he is completing almost 7.0 more passes, throwing for 40 more yards, has a 9.1 percent higher completion percentage, and a 5.0 point higher QB rating. His stats from each of the first seven games for each of the past two seasons is shown below.
Although Wentz has yet to score 30.0 or more DraftKings points in a single game this year, he has the potential to hit that mark this weekend. On the season, the Saints are giving up the second most DK points to opposing quarterbacks at 26.7 per contest. In addition, every quarterback that has faced the Saints passing defense has scored at least 15.0 DK points, and they have given up large fantasy performances to Ryan Fitzpatrick (45.3), Matt Ryan (43.16), and Jared Goff (33.3).
Furthermore, this game will be played at the Talladega Superspeedway of the NFL, the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Of the large fantasy performances noted above, two of those (Fitzpatrick and Goff) occurred in New Orleans.
Finally, through their first nine games, the Saints pass rush is averaging 2.3 sacks per game which is good for 22nd in the NFL, while the Eagles are allowing the 9th most sacks per game at 3.1. Even though the Eagles have been allowing a high number of sacks, Doug Pederson announced on Friday that he expects right tackle Lane Johnson to return from injury and start on Sunday. Johnson’s return could give Wentz a better chance to throw from a clean pocket and bolster his chances for a big fantasy outing.
New Orleans: Drew Brees, $6500 (QB5)
Drew Brees is this week’s highest priced quarterback on DraftKings at $6500. He’s coming off an impressive showing last week against the Bengals in which he scored 28.9 DK points and completed 22 of 25 passes for 265 passing yards and 3 passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown.
On the season, Brees is completing an astronomically high 77.4 percent of his passes and is averaging 26.1 completions, 33.8 attempts, 289.0 passing yards, 2.3 touchdowns, 0.1 interceptions, and 24.8 DK points per game. Brees also has three rushing TDs on the year, two of which occurred in Week 3 against Atlanta and one against Cincinnati this past weekend.
At the midpoint of the season, Brees has thrown at least 2 TD passes in seven out of nine games and 3 or more TD passes in five of nine. He also has five games with 28.0 or more DK points, but also has two with 8.6 or less.
Brees has also fared much better at home than on the road and is averaging almost 8.0 more DK points in four games played in New Orleans. His home/road splits can be seen below.
So far in 2018, the Eagles are allowing the 10th most points to opposing quarterbacks at 20.8 per game and they just lost their best corner, Ronald Darby, to an ACL injury for the remainder of the season. In addition to Darby, Philadelphia is also missing starting corner Jalen Mills and starting safety Rodney McLeod. Although the Eagles are likely to have second year slot corner Sidney Jones return from injury this weekend, it may not matter.
As a result of all the injuries in the Eagles secondary, and simply due to the fact that we are talking about Drew Brees at home, Brees will certainly have a chance to add another high scoring fantasy outing to his season-long totals. In fact, it’s hard to envision many scenarios in which Brees doesn’t perform well. It’s certainly possible that the Saints could get out to a large lead which would, in theory, limit his passing opportunities. It’s also possible that the Saints end up with more rushing touchdowns than passing which would also hurt his fantasy value. However, the upside here is too much to ignore.
Although the Eagles have a solid defensive line that is capable of getting to the quarterback and are averaging the 9th most sacks per game at 2.9., the Saints are allowing the fewest sacks in the league at 1.0 per game. That said, the Saints are likely to be missing starting left tackle Terron Armstead, but have a capable backup in veteran Jermon Bushrod. While Bushrod hasn’t started at tackle since 2015, he was a starter at guard for the Miami Dolphins in 2016 and 2017 and should be able to perform at a reasonably competent level.
RUNNING BACKS
DraftKings Points Allowed to RBs – NO 19.8 (29th); PHI 22.0 (24th)
Philadelphia: Wendell Smallwood, $3600 (RB48); Josh Adams, $3300 (RB81); Corey Clement, $3200 (RB53)
Injuries to veterans Jay Ajayi and Darren Sproles have hurt the Eagles backfield this season and consequently, Philadelphia’s current running back corps leaves a lot to be desired from a fantasy perspective. At present, the Eagles use a rotation of Wendell Smallwood, Josh Adams, and Corey Clement, but none of these backs offers much in terms of consistent fantasy upside. The season-long averages for each of these backs is shown below.
This season, the Saints are allowing the 4th fewest DraftKings points to opposing running backs at 19.8 per game. Through the first nine games, only Saquon Barkley (22.0) and Latavius Murray (20.5) have scored more than 20.0 DK points against the Saints rush defense and they just held Todd Gurley to a season low fantasy total of 19.9 two weeks ago.
Needless to say, given the sporadic use of the Eagles running backs, Smallwood, Adams, and Clement are deep GPP dart throws at best. None of them see a consistent workload and even at their low salaries, if you decide to roster one of these backs, you’ll have to hope for a touchdown or a big play for them to return value.
If you are tempted to roster one of these players, Josh Adams has received the most carries the past two weeks with 16, while Smallwood has the most receptions with 6. That said, it’s probably best to avoid this situation altogether.
New Orleans: Alvin Kamara, $8200 (RB3); Mark Ingram, $4700 (RB22)
On the opposite sideline, Saints running backs, Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram, present two much more compelling options in this matchup.
In last week’s contest against the Bengals, both of these backs were able to have successful fantasy days as Kamara scored 26.2 DK points and Ingram put up a total of 28.2. Together, they accounted for three of the Saints touchdowns as Kamara rushed for two and Ingram was on the receiving end of a Drew Brees touchdown pass.
The table below shows the season-long averages for each back.
Although both Kamara and Ingram were both able to put up fantasy relevant totals against Cincinnati last weekend, this Sunday’s matchup with Philadelphia could present more of a challenge. On the season, Philadelphia is allowing the 9th fewest DK points to running backs at 22.0 per game. Other than a 40.9 day by Saquon Barkley and a 39.7 outing by Ezekiel Elliott last week, the Eagles have held every other opposing running back to 16.0 DK points or less.
Given the Eagles injury woes in their defensive backfield, they may have to place more of an emphasis on getting to Brees when he drops back to pass. Although Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz doesn’t normally like to send more than four rushers, he might be forced to blitz more frequently to try and help out the secondary. If that were to occur, it might present more opportunities for both Ingram and Kamara to be utilized in the quick passing game and on screen passes.
While both of these backs have fantasy upside, Kamara is utilized more frequently in the Saints passing game which would seemingly make him the more appealing option of the two. However, this might also mean that Ingram could be a less popular option and be a potential pivot in GPPs.
WIDE RECEIVERS
DraftKings Points Allowed to WRs – NO 52.1 (1st); PHI 43.9 (5th)
Philadelphia: Alshon Jeffery, $6300 (WR19); Golden Tate, $5500 (WR22); Nelson Agholor, $4100 (WR46)
Whereas the Eagles rushing attack leaves much to be desired, Wentz has a number of options that he can target in the passing game. At the wideout position, Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor are the safest options, but newcomer Golden Tate has big play ability and is likely to see more than the 18 snaps he received in his first game with Eagles against Dallas last week. The season long stats for each player are shown below (Tate’s stat line includes his 7 games played with Detroit).
Over their first nine games, the Saints pass defense is giving up the most DraftKings points to opposing wide receivers at 52.1 per game. They have allowed some huge individual performances to opposing wide receivers this year. This group includes DeSean Jackson (34.6), Mike Evans (30.7), Calvin Ridley (43.5), Sterling Shepard (25.7), John Brown (29.4), Stefon Diggs (30.9), Adam Thielen (26.8), and Brandin Cooks (26.4). To help illustrate this even further, the table below shows the team totals for each of their opponents (players are listed in order from most to least DK points scored in each game).
Given all the receiving options on the Eagles roster and the weakness of the Saints pass defense, there may be multiple double-digit fantasy scores in store for more than one of the Eagles pass catchers. However, pinpointing which wideouts are in store for a potential big day is difficult to decipher. This is especially true given the frequency at which Zach Ertz has been targeted this season (more on him below).Ultimately, the number of fantasy points scored by the Eagles receivers will likely be dependent on how many times Wentz is forced to throw in this game and whether the Saints can take Ertz out of the equation.
That said, the Saints have been particularly vulnerable to receivers out of the slot position which could make Nelson Agholor a viable lineup target at a price of only $4100. Alshon Jeffery leads this trio in the touchdown department and Golden Tate offers big play ability after the catch. If you are going to stack this game, it might be worthwhile to take a multi-lineup approach and use different combinations or pair one of them with Zach Ertz.
If you want to be ultra-contrarian and take on the risk, last week’s winning Millionaire Maker lineup included two Bears wide receivers along with Trey Burton and Mitchell Trubisky. While that is unlikely to be a consistent winning strategy, it shows that it’s certainly possible for a winning lineup to include three pass catchers along with a quarterback from the same team.
New Orleans: Michael Thomas, $8800 (WR2); Tre’Quan Smith, $4000 (WR98)
Last week, Michael Thomas followed up his 42.1 DK point performance against the Rams with a 27 point outing against the Bengals. With an extremely vulnerable Eagles pass defense on deck in Week 11, Thomas could be in store for another huge day.
As if a depleted Eagles secondary wasn’t enough to bolster his fantasy outlook, the Saints wide receiver position has also been hammered by injuries in recent weeks. As a result, Thomas’ clear position as the Alpha in the Saints wide receiver corps has been solidified even further.
Earlier this week, New Orleans signed Brandon Marshall for the remainder of the season, but with only one week to prepare, he isn’t likely to be a major factor in the offensive game plan in this contest. As a result, the Saints are pretty much left with Thomas and rookie Tre’Quan Smith as the only real options on the outside. Both Thomas and Smith’s season-long averages are shown below.
With such a short list of healthy bodies at the wide receiver position, Smith may see more targets coming his way but that hasn’t occurred so far. More than likely, if the Eagles are able to keep pace with Saints in the scoring department, Sean Payton will likely use Kamara and possibly Ingram as additional receiving options.
That said, this week’s matchup provides a good opportunity for Thomas and Smith as Philadelphia is currently allowing the 5th most points to opposing wide receivers at 43.9 DK points per game. Through the first nine games, the Eagles have allowed six different wide receivers to score more than 20.0 DK points.
This group includes Julio Jones (31.0), DeSean Jackson (25.9), Mike Evans (23.3), Corey Davis (34.1), Adam Thielen (27.6), and Stefon Diggs (21.6). The team totals for each of their opponents is shown in the table below (players are listed in order from most to least DK points scored in each game).
Thomas is certainly on par with the aforementioned receivers and could be in line for another huge day given the Eagles injury woes in the defensive backfield. Smith is also in play due to the Saints lack of other options at the wide receiver position but is best suited for GPPs.
TIGHT ENDS
DraftKings Points Allowed to TEs – NO 8.8 (28th); PHI 8.2 (30th)
Philadelphia: Zach Ertz, $6600 (TE1)
While the Eagles certainly have options at the wide receiver position, Wentz’s favorite target this season has been Zach Ertz. Wentz hasn’t been shy about targeting Ertz and he has seized the opportunities that have come his way. In fact, Ertz has been so impressive that his entire game log bears illustrating here as opposed to his season-long averages.
As if those numbers weren’t impressive enough, Ertz is on a record setting pace for tight ends this season. Through the first nine games, he has a total of 75 catches for 789 yards and five touchdowns. If he were to continue at his current pace for the remainder of the season, he would finish with 133 catches and 1,402 receiving yards. Jason Witten is the current record holder at the tight end position with 110 receptions and Rob Gronkowski holds the record for receiving yards with 1,327.
While Ertz is on a record setting pace, the Saints have defended opposing TEs extremely well this season and are allowing the 5th fewest DK points to the position at 8.8 per game. Although they haven’t faced a tight end of Ertz’s caliber, they have not allowed a single tight end to score in double digits all season. The highest total any tight end has scored against the Saints defense was Gerald Everett with 9.8 in Week 9. Ertz has proven to be almost matchup proof this season, but this defense could present a difficult challenge for Wentz’s favorite target.
New Orleans: Benjamin Watson, $3500 (TE23)
One week after logging a 0.0 point performance against the Vikings in Week 8, Watson turned around and put up 15.2 DK points against the Rams while pulling in 3 receptions for 62 yards and a touchdown. He followed that up with a 1.1 outing against the Bengals. It bears noting, however, that Watson seemingly caught a touchdown in that game but it was determined that he did not cross the goal line and the play was overturned.
Other than the contest against the Vikings and last week’s matchup against the Bengals, Watson has received at least 3 targets in seven out of nine games and has six games with 4 or more. Over this same span, Watson has scored 8.4 or more DK points in four games and over 12.1 in three of those four. Watson’s season long averages can be seen in the table below.
Nevertheless, Watson is somewhat of a hit or miss proposition and this week’s contest against the Eagles won’t be easy. While the Saints Defense has been stingy against opposing tight ends, the Eagles Defense has been even tougher. On the season, the Eagles are allowing the 3rd fewest points to the position at 8.2 per game. This total would be even lower if not for an 18.6 outing by O.J. Howard in Week 2 that was primarily the result of one 75 yard TD reception. Other than that game, the Eagles have not allowed more than 9.1 DK points to any other tight end they have faced.
Given the Saints injury woes at the wide receiver position, however, Watson could be asked to play a slightly larger role as a pass catcher, but is best suited for use in GPPs.
GAME STACK CONSIDERATIONS
Philadelphia: Carson Wentz, Alshon Jeffery, Golden Tate, Nelson Agholor, Zach Ertz
New Orleans: Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram (GPPs), Michael Thomas, Tre’Quan Smith (GPPs), and Ben Watson (GPPs)
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