If you are unaware of what NFL survivor picks are, the basic concept is you make NFL picks throughout the season, but you can only pick a team once. Once you lose, you’re knocked out, so choose your Week 18 NFL Survivor Pool picks wisely.
If you are new to reading my survivor articles, what I do is outline my “lock of the week,” my “value of the week” and my “high-risk, high-reward pick of the week.”
The lock of the week details what team I think has the best chance of winning their matchup. This would most likely be a good team that plays a bad team. The lock is also the official pick for NFL Survivor Pools, meaning we will not reuse a “lock.” My value pick of the week details a mid-tier team that has a good matchup. And finally, my high-risk, high-reward pick details a bad team that has a good matchup. It may be worth it to look at the NFL betting odds for these games and place some bets as well.
Week 18 NFL Survivor Pool Picks
Lock of the Week | Best Pick for NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 18
Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers
The Atlanta Falcons come into week 18 as 7.5 point favorites over the Carolina Panthers. On top of that, the Falcons have something to play for this week. They need to beat the Panthers AND they need the Saints to beat the Buccaneers. While that second point may be hard to come by, all they can do is control what they can control. Winning against the Panthers is the most important thing and I believe that Atlanta can and will.
Especially with Michael Penix at quarterback, the Falcons should be able to rely on Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier in this game. As has been the case for most of the season, the Falcons should want to run the ball and be able to effectively. The Panthers are last in the NFL in rushing yards given up with 2,830. On top of that, the Panthers have given up 21 rushing touchdowns this season. We have seen flashes of Penix being great this season, so to add a strong run game should be able to settle Penix in well in the most important game of his career.
As for the Panthers’ offense, as has been the case for the majority of the season, there is nothing that really scares you. This is especially true as Chuba Hubbard went on IR and will be out for this game. The Falcons’ secondary has been alright this season and ranks in the middle of the pack in terms of passing yards given up. If the Falcons can get to Bryce Young early in the pass rush, this game could be over quick.
Lock of the Week: Atlanta Falcons
Value Pick of the Week | Week 18 NFL Survivor Pool Picks
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the team competing with the Atlanta Falcons for the NFC South division title. The Bucs have a little more flexibility though as they can afford a loss if the Falcons also lose. I don’t think the Bucs want to run that way though as winning this game against the Saints locks up the playoffs for them. Luckily for the Bucs, the Saints are not a very good football team and with a flurry of injuries, it seems unlikely that Tampa loses here. In fact, they are 14.5-point favorites and while that number seems really high, the fact of the matter is that the Bucs have something to play for and the Saints don’t.
Mike Evans is 85 yards away from extending his 1,000 yard streak and Baker Mayfield as a number of incentives to hit. I would imagine that the Tampa offense is at full force in this one, with Evans seeing the ball early and often. Add into the fact that the Saints have been horrible against the run as they have given up 2,225 rushing yards, which ranks 30th in the NFL and that the both Bucky Irving and Rachaad White have been awesome this year and Tampa should have no problem moving the ball in this one.
Value Pick of the Week: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
High Risk, High Reward Pick of the Week | Week 18 NFL Survivor Pool Picks
Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The High Risk, High Reward Pick of the Week is sort of a weird pick to make this week as with so much uncertainty and starters sitting, it feels like any game this week could qualify as a high-risk, high-reward pick. I am going with the Indianapolis Colts, who are 3.5-point favorites, over the Jacksonville Jaguars this week. There is an incentive for the Jags to lose this game as they are currently slotted in as the fifth pick in the NFL draft. On the flip side, the Colts have had a disappointing season, to say the least. There seem to be even more questions surrounding the Anthony Richardson experiment and the run game was nowhere near where it should have been.
This feels like a game where the Colts can out on a high note this season, taking down a division rival. I think that all starts with Jonathan Taylor and the run game. The Jaguars have given up 2,077 rushing yards this season, which ranks 23rd in the NFL this season. With Richardson out in this game, the Colts already have an upgrade at quarterback with Joe Flacco. Flacco should be able to carve up this bad Jaguars pass defense to bring home a W for the Colts.
High Risk, High Reward Pick of the Week: Indianapolis Colts
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