FlurrySports discusses the best budget Week 10 NFL DFS picks on DraftKings.
NFL Week 10 is upon us, and we have an interesting fantasy football slate this week after the fireworks of Week 9. With a main slate of 10 games and just five with totals greater than 48, DFS players will need to be strategic with their roster construction to make money on this challenging slate. If you need to save money on your NFL DFS picks in order to play the Puka Nacuas and Christian McCaffreys of the world, then you will need valuable plays at a discount price.
Let’s take a look at the best value plays in each position on DraftKings.
NFL DFS Picks: Week 10 Budget Plays on DraftKings
Quarterback: Marcus Mariota vs Lions ($5300)
Rushing QBs have long been a cheat code for NFL DFS picks, and fantasy in general, because of the solid floor and astronomical ceiling they possess, whether or not they are good at real-life football (looking at you, Justin Fields). Marcus Mariota will be getting the nod at QB in Washington for the foreseeable future after Jayden Daniels sustained a brutal arm injury last week. Mariota has performed admirably in the Daniels’ absence this season when called upon.
He was QB6 against the Raiders in Week 3, QB17 against Atlanta in Week 4, and QB19 against the Chiefs in Week 8. The Lions are surprisingly a bottomfive fantasy unit against signal callers so far this year, having given up big games to JJ McCarthy (22.9 points), Patrick Mahomes (37.5 points), and even Jake Browning (25.1 points). Washington could still be without Terry McLaurin this week again, but at $5300, all we need for Mariota is a solid 15-20 points to not tank our lineup and to let our stars eat.
Honorable Mentions: Mac Jones ($5000), J.J. McCarthy ($4900)
Running Back: Rico Dowdle vs Saints ($6300)
The sudden darling of everyone’s fantasy season, Rico Dowdle, has been nothing short of a revelation for fantasy managers and the Carolina Panthers alike. Dowdle has been the engine of the Panthers’ offense recently, helping them along to a surprising 5-4 record and a big upset of the Green Bay Packers a week ago. Since Week 4, Dowdle has as many 30-point games as he does games under 15 points. Part of that is Chuba Hubbard nonsense, especially considering he played sub-50 percent of snaps in two of those down games. The play is clear: start Dowdle, give him touches, profit.
The Saints are not the worst defense against fantasy RBs this year; it would be hard to be worse than the Bengals, allowing an abysmal 14.3%(!!!) fantasy points above expectation to opposing rushers. To simplify, whatever you think the base projection against the Bengals is for an RB, add nearly 15%.
Dowdle should be able to rack up a huge day in a home spot against a struggling team where the Panthers are nearly a touchdown favorite at the time of writing. Pairing him with CMC should be your number one priority.
Wide Receiver: Tez Johnson vs Patriots ($4500)
Nasty. Gross. Disgusting. That’s what WR values look like this week in DFS.
The top plays are all your usual suspects that cost well over 8k, so finding the right value NFL DFS picks at WR will be imperative to a winning lineup. Johnson projects well as the WR2 in Tampa Bay, at least until Chris Godwin gets back, in a matchup against a Patriots team that just gave up 221 passing yards and three scores to the Falcons offense. Over his three games before the bye week, Johnson saw 18 targets and caught 10 for 146 yards and two touchdowns.
This downfield ability, plus snapshare, is exactly what we want out of a dart throw in DFS.
The Patriots have been middle of the road against fantasy WRs this year, but with no Bucky Irving, Mike Evans, or Chris Godwin, the target share has condensed tremendously around Emeka Egbuka and Tez Johnson. I wouldn’t be shocked if Johnson turned in a pedestrian 4/60/0, but 5/120/2 is well within his range of outcomes as well. For $4500, we can risk the floor because it allows us to spend up to get two of CMC, Puka, and JSN in the same lineup.
Tight End: Hunter Henry at Buccaneers ($3500)
Because TE salaries are already lower than all other positions except defense, it makes sense to lower our threshold for “value play” to under 4k. The Buccaneers have been fine against tight ends this year, really only giving up big days to Dallas Goedert (21.7 points) and AJ Barner (27.8 points). Hunter Henry was quiet from Weeks 5-8, but he saw his involvement bounce back a bit against the Falcons last week, with six targets on 75% snaps.
Kayshon Boutte was cooled off by a hamstring injury in that game, opening up more opportunities for Henry. This Pats-Bucs game has a 48-point total and is shaping up like one of the more fantasy-friendly games on the slate, as both offenses will likely be trying to keep up with the other. Like we’ve discussed at length, the savings on Henry allow us to spend money elsewhere, so getting a player who has flashed an awesome ceiling his entire career is well worth it.
D/ST | Week 10 NFL DFS Picks
Unfortunately, Defense and Special Teams do matter in DFS. I personally like to attack struggling offenses while spending the least amount of my budget possible. D/ST units in consideration this week are:
Jaguars at Texans ($2600) — They are facing Davis Mills.
Jets vs Browns ($2800 — They just shook up that side of the ball, which could go either way. Still, they get the Browns in a gross game.
Browns at Jets ($2900) — Cleveland has a good defense and gets to face Justin Fields. I wouldn’t be shocked at a 21-3 Browns win with two defensive scores.
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