Monday afternoon’s Quick Lane Bowl will feature two of college football’s more surprising postseason participants. The New Mexico State Aggies and the Bowling Green Falcons both exceeded expectations this season. The last time either school made a bowl game was back in 2017, but the two sides are now set to go head-to-head in Detroit. The New Mexico State vs Bowling Green odds have been on the move ahead of this matchup, with the MAC representative being the popular choice of many college football betting picks.
The following game preview provides the college football betting odds, trends and FEI Index ratings before sharing our official New Mexico State vs Bowling Green prediction for the Quick Lane Bowl matchup.
New Mexico State vs Bowling Green Prediction | College Football Betting Picks
Quick Lane Bowl
New Mexico State Aggies (6-6) vs. Bowling Green Falcons (6-6, 5-3 MAC)
Date: Monday, December 26, 2022
Time: 2:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Ford Field — Detroit, MI
Coverage: ESPN
The last time that New Mexico State won more than three games in a season came back in 2017. A win over in-state rival New Mexico kicked off a stretch that saw the Aggies win five of their final six games to become bowl-eligible in head coach Jerry Kill’s first year at the helm. This marks only the fifth time in program history that NMSU will play in a bowl game and just the second since 1960. Kill also managed to ink several promising recruits on National Signing Day, further proof that this is a program on the rise.
Bowling Green also surpassed expectations this year in the Mid-American Conference. Despite losing two of their final three games in lopsided fashion, the Falcons find themselves back in the postseason for the first time since 2015. What’s more, BGSU hung 42 points in a win over eventual league champion Toledo in the penultimate game of the regular season to clinch bowl eligibility. After finishing fourth in the MAC in passing yards, senior quarterback Matt McDonald will play his final collegiate game on Monday.
New Mexico State vs Bowling Green College Football Betting Picks and Odds
All college football betting odds for New Mexico State vs Bowling Green can be found at BetOnline Sportsbook.
Moneyline: NMSU: (+140) | BGSU: (-160)
Point Spread: NMSU: +3.5 (-114) | BGSU: -3.5 (-106)
Total: 49 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
College Football FEI Ratings
The following table shares the Fremeau Efficiency Index rankings for both teams involved in this Quick Lane Bowl matchup. The purpose of the FEI ratings is to represent the per-possession scoring advantage that a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. The rankings for offense and defense are out of 131 total FBS-level teams.
Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) ratings are from Football Outsiders
| Team | Overall FEI (Rk) | OFEI (Rk) | DFEI (Rk) |
| New Mexico State | -.88 (125) | -.66 (104) | -1.11 (127) |
| Bowling Green | -.60 (111) | -.68 (106) | -.50 (101) |
New Mexico State vs Bowling Green College Football Betting Trends
- Aggies are 5-1 both straight up and ATS in their last six games overall.
- Each of the Aggies’ last four games has gone OVER the total.
- The OVER is 9-1 in the Aggies’ last ten games after winning by more than 20 points in their previous game.
- Falcons are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight non-conference games.
- Six of the Falcons’ last seven bowl games played in the month of December have gone OVER the total.
- The OVER is 6-1-1 in the Falcons’ last eight games after rushing for less than 100 yards in their previous game.
- Aggies are 0-3 both straight up and ATS against MAC opponents since 2011 while allowing 45.7 points per game.
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New Mexico State vs Bowling Green Prediction | College Football Betting Picks
The Quick Lane Bowl is one of the few bowl games in which both teams are expected to have the vast majority of their players available. Given that both programs are in the midst of extended postseason droughts, motivation to win figures to be high as well.
When it comes to handicapping the New Mexico State vs Bowling Green odds, there is reason to believe that the game total is set too high. When New Mexico State was matched up against relatively even competition this season, games tended to be lower-scoring affairs. Games against Nevada, UTEP, FIU, New Mexico and UMass all failed to reach the 40-point threshold let alone get all the way to 48.
Bowling Green finished the year ranked 111th in overall adjusted efficiency which is right on par with several of NMSU’s previous opponents listed above. What’s more, Bowling Green’s offense was largely shut down in the back half of the regular season. The Falcons were held to 17 points or less in five of their final seven games.
From a statistical standpoint, the Aggies’ defense certainly benefitted from playing lesser competition this season. The issue with expecting Bowling Green to dictate terms is that they failed to do so against poor defensive opponents in the MAC. Despite the presence of veteran quarterback Matt McDonald, banking on the Falcons to pile up points is difficult to do.
The fact that New Mexico State quarterback Diego Pavia was banged up in the regular season finale and could be at less than 100% is also worth noting. Whether he is compromised or not, the Aggies are likely to make running the football a priority in an effort to expose a BGSU defense that allowed 167.1 rushing yards per game. Such a game plan will theoretically reduce the total number of possessions and thus reinforces the decision to play the Under.
UNDER THE TOTAL will be our official college football betting New Mexico State vs Bowling Green prediction for the Quick Lane Bowl.
For what it’s worth, the ESPN Matchup Predictor gives Bowling Green a 52.0% chance to win this game outright.
Bet: UNDER 49 (-110 at BetOnline Sportsbook)
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