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NBA Draft Lottery 2022 Odds to Land Top Overall Pick

As much of the basketball world is focused on the ongoing NBA Playoffs, it’s worth noting that the draft combine is just a couple of weeks away. A new crop of talent will put their skills to the test ahead of the 2022 NBA Draft. This year’s draft class is unique in that there are multiple players capable of being picked first overall. While team needs and the pre-draft process will certainly impact the order of selections, so too will the NBA Draft Lottery 2022.

Thanks to the lottery, any of the 14 teams who did not qualify for the playoffs has a mathematical shot at landing the top overall pick. Thus, we won’t know the official order of selections in this year’s draft until the 2022 NBA Draft Lottery takes place. What we do know as of now are the lottery seeds and the accompanying percentage chances for every non-playoff team to earn the top overall pick.

The following article serves the purpose of hashing out the NBA Draft Lottery 2022 odds and seedings for each team.

2022 NBA Draft Lottery seeding odds
Credit: Getty Images

NBA Draft Lottery 2022 Odds

Refer to the table below which contains the finalized 2022 NBA Draft Lottery odds for all 14 teams included in this year’s event. The NBA odds to land the top overall pick, as well as the average First Round pick position for each team based on seeding, are also included. Additional commentary on how the seeding shook out can be found in the sections that follow.

Team2021-22 Season Record% Odds to Land Top PickAverage Pick Based on Lottery Seed
Houston Rockets20-6214.03.7
Orlando Magic22-6014.03.9
Detroit Pistons23-5914.04.1
Oklahoma City Thunder24-5812.54.4
Indiana Pacers25-5710.55.0
Portland Trail Blazers27-559.05.5
Sacramento Kings30-527.56.2
Los Angeles Lakers*33-496.07.0
San Antonio Spurs34-484.58.0
Washington Wizards35-473.09.2
New York Knicks37-452.010.3
Los Angeles Clippers**42-401.511.4
Charlotte Hornets43-391.012.5
Cleveland Cavaliers44-380.513.7

* – Pick rights traded to NOP

** – Pick rights traded to OKC

When is the NBA Draft Lottery 2022?

The 2022 NBA Draft Lottery will take place on Tuesday, May 17. The event will take place in Chicago, Illinois. Fans will be able to watch for free by signing up for fuboTV.

Rockets Land Top NBA Draft Lottery Seed for Second Straight Year

This season marked the second year in a row that the Houston Rockets finished with the worst regular-season record of any team. As a result, the Rockets are once again the top seed in the NBA Draft Lottery.

Houston picked second overall in last year’s NBA Draft, taking Jalen Green with the selection. Unfortunately for Rockets fans, it only amounted to a three-win improvement in a season that saw all teams play 10 more games than the 2020-21 campaign.

By virtue of landing the top 2022 NBA Draft Lottery odds, the Rockets are guaranteed to pick no lower than fifth overall. Houston also has slightly better than a 52% chance of landing a top-four selection. Unlike last year, they do not have to worry about possibly losing their pick as a result of how the lottery shakes out.

Cade Cunningham 2022 NBA Draft Lottery seeding odds
Credit: Raj Mehta/USA TODAY Sports

Four of the Top Five Seeds Are Repeats From 2021

Rome wasn’t built in a day, and neither are championship NBA teams. The fact that four of the top five lottery seeds were in the exact same position a year ago serves as blatant proof of this notion. Along with the Rockets earning the top NBA Draft Lottery seeding position for the second straight year, each of the Orlando Magic, Detroit Pistons and Oklahoma City Thunder all find themselves back in contention for the top pick in this year’s draft.

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Pretty much the only thing that has changed from the top of last year’s NBA Draft Lottery is the order in which these teams are seeded. For the second year in a row, the Magic and Pistons join the Rockets in having the maximum percentage odds of securing the No. 1 overall pick. Of course, Detroit won last year’s lottery and went on to select Cade Cunningham at number one. Despite having equivalent odds as the three-seed last year, the Magic had to settle for picking fifth on draft night.

Orlando will hope to reverse their fortunes as the 2-seed in this year’s lottery. The Magic finished exactly one game worse in the final season standings than the 3-seed Pistons and just two worse than the 4-seed Thunder. The NBA Draft Lottery was not particularly kind to Oklahoma City a year ago either. The Thunder entered the night with a legitimate chance of landing two top-5 picks. Instead, OKC made their first selection in last year’s draft at No. 6 overall.

The only newcomer among the first five seeds from last year’s lottery to 2022 is the Indiana Pacers. They take the place of the Cleveland Cavaliers who improved to the point of reaching the NBA Play-In Tournament this past season.

LeBron James NBA Draft Lottery seeding odds 2022
Credit: Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images

Lakers, Clippers Not in Contention for Top Pick

It was a brutal NBA season in the City of Angels. The Los Angeles Lakers began the year as betting favorites to win the title, yet failed to even qualify for the Western Conference Play-In Tournament. Meanwhile, the crosstown rival Clippers played the entire season without Kawhi Leonard and a great portion of it without fellow superstar, Paul George. Although the Clips still managed to reach the Play-In Tournament, they ultimately fell short of the postseason itself.

Since neither the Lakers nor the Clippers qualified for the NBA Playoffs, they are formally lumped in among the 14 lottery teams. Technically speaking, however, neither L.A. team has anything riding on the outcome of the 2022 NBA Draft Lottery. Thanks to previous trades, both the Lakers and Clippers have already forfeited the rights to their First Round picks in this year’s draft.

Pelicans Own Lakers’ Draft Pick Thanks to Anthony Davis Trade

For the Lakers, losing out on a pick as the eight-seed in the lottery is particularly painful. The rights to their First Round pick actually belong to a playoff team in the New Orleans Pelicans. The June 2019 trade that sent former No. 1 overall pick Anthony Davis from the Pelicans to the Lakers is responsible for L.A. not having their First Round selection in this year’s draft.

Thus, not only did the Pelicans improve tremendously on the floor this past season, but they also have a 7% chance to pick first in the 2022 NBA Draft. The only way that the Lakers would keep this pick is if they fall outside of the top-10 in the final draft order. The pick is protected between Nos. 11 and 30, so the earliest that Los Angeles could possibly make a pick this year (barring a future trade) is at No. 11 overall.

Paul George Trade Gives Thunder Rights to Clippers’ Draft Pick

The Clippers surrendered their First Round pick in this year’s draft when they traded for a star of their own. Los Angeles acquired Paul George from the Oklahoma City Thunder in the summer of 2019. Part of the return compensation package that the Thunder got was an unprotected First Round pick.

Thanks to the Clippers failing to reach the playoffs, OKC once again has an outside chance at earning two of the top four picks in June’s draft. Even if the NBA Draft Lottery doesn’t break in their favor, the Thunder have a great chance to own two of the top 12 picks.


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