MLB DFS Slate Breakdown 6/28

Pitchers To Use

Lance Lynn

I know this is not a play you would normally look at, but I believe he has some great upside today. First, he gets an amazing park upgrade, on the road at Tropicana Field, away from his home park in Texas, which yields a lot of home runs. Second, the match-up is really good for him specifically. Lynn will see five righties, where his strikeout rate sits at 32.8%. This lineup overall has a pretty decent K rate, around 22%, and a 43% GB rate. The LHH in this lineup have good power, but he has been limiting home runs to both sides of the plat. Lynn uses his fastball the most (54%) mixing in his various other four pitches. The curve saw a massive whiff boost this month, increasing to 65%, the fastball and cutter also get decent whiffs. His cutter is the only pitch below a 43% GB rate, and he doesn’t use it that often. He should also get the win, especially if Tampa goes to the pen early. After yesterday, they will be limited on who is available, which only helps his chance at the win bonus.

Elieser Hernandez

This is the second time I have wrote this kid up, and if you are not a pitch junkie like myself, I will help inform you of his abilities. Against RHH, he has a massive 35% K rate, and that is mostly due to one of the nastiest sliders we have witnessed in a long time. It has six inches of duel movement, both horizontally and vertically. It gets 65% whiffs per swing, and after watching him throw it, I am shocked that number isn’t higher. He is going to give up a home run, or two, mostly to LHH, but it doesn’t matter when he can easily get a strikeout next AB. His price remains low enough for me to have a lot of interest, and I would not be shocked if he starts to see the low $8,000’s on FD after another start or two. Also, keep in mind he will be pitching at home, which is a great pitchers park.

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Wade Miley

Wade is probably my favorite pitcher of the day. He’s in a great spot against the Mariners, who do not hit LHP well. Overall, this unit has a 28.3% K rate and a 43.1% GB rate to LHP. Miley is getting a lot of whiffs with his change, which he will use more on lefties. Another thing to note is his home-road splits. At home, he is averaging 32 FD points on the year, which at his price point is great. I will have a ton of interest in Wade, especially since he is projected to be low owned, as of right now.

Honorable Mention – Berrios

Stacks

WAS – Washington is a great stack that doesn’t play in Coors field. Daniel Norris has been a guy that we can attack on a regular basis, and today is no different. His main pitches are the fastball, slider and change. All three pitches give up a high ISO, with the slider being the one with the most FB. Players I will want to use begin with Rendon, who hits Norris’s pitch mix the best and also crushed LHP, with a massive ISO, FB rate and HC. I also like Dozier, Kendrick and Juan Soto, especially since Norris gives up a lot of power to LHH.

HOU – Tommy Milone will keep coming in behind an opener, so I will focus this stack on him. I will be targeting him with righties, since he gives up a lot of FB and still good HC to that side. I will be using Springer, Altuve, Bregman, Gurriel and White.

MIL – Chris Archer has been a pitcher that I will attack as often as I can. He has a .280 ISO, 45% FB rate and 46.7% HC to LHH. Fastball, change and slider are his primary pitches. The fastball has been getting destroyed and this team can hit fastball very well. I will be using in this order: Yelich, Moustakas and Thames.

LAD – Here is today’s chalk stack. The Dodgers will be in Coors Field, where the hitting conditions couldn’t be any better and the matchup is also good. Senzatela has been pretty bad overall, and even worse at home, which isn’t shocking. Bellinger and Muncy are projected to be the most popular hitters on the entire slate. I also have a lot of interest in Joc, who matches up well with his pitch mix, Verdugo and Beatty.